Josh Padley vs Jaouad Belmehdi Set for European Title

Josh Padley and Jaouad Belmehdi meet on January 31 at the Utilita Arena in Newcastle. Padley is trying to prove his bank account isn’t the only thing that changed after the Shakur Stevenson fight. Belmehdi is trying to prove he didn’t leave his best nights in French gymnasiums.

Padley  has spent the last year cashing in on a loss. His ninth-round stoppage defeat to Stevenson in Riyadh last February was a financial windfall that let him quit his job as an electrician. He showed durability that night. He also showed the technical limitations of a man who splits his time between site work and the heavy bag. Stevenson broke him down with body shots because Padley stands too tall in the pocket. He lacks the hip fold required to absorb elite-level body punching. Since then he has stopped Marko Cvetanovic and outpointed Reece Bellotti. Those are solid wins. They are also wins that suggest his level is exactly where he finds himself next Saturday.

Trainers love to talk about how a loss to a pound-for-pound great improves a fighter. It is usually nonsense. Getting beaten up by Shakur Stevenson does not teach you how to cut off the ring. It teaches you what it feels like to drown. Padley needs to show he learned something practical. He needs to show he can initiate offense without waiting for permission. Against Bellotti he used his feet well but often waited too long to let his hands go. In the European ranks that hesitation allows lesser fighters to steal rounds with activity.

Belmehdi’s Parisian Slide

Belmehdi  arrives in Newcastle with his own baggage. He dropped a decision to Can Xu last August in a fight where he looked one-paced. The Frenchman fights with a high guard and walks forward in straight lines. It is a style made for a sharp counter-puncher. He does not offer angles. He offers a target. If Padley can pivot off the centerline he will find Belmehdi turning slowly to track him. This is basic geometry. If Padley stands in front of him he turns this into a phone booth war that favors the man with the thicker neck.

This fight is on the undercard of Bakhram Murtazaliev defending his IBF super welterweight title against Josh Kelly. That main event is a collision of styles.

Padley is the favorite because he is the home fighter and because he survived eight rounds with Stevenson. That logic is flawed. Survival is not a skill set. He needs to establish his jab early and stop Belmehdi from getting comfortable on the inside. If he allows the Frenchman to lean on him he will tire late. We saw his gas tank fade in Riyadh. We might see it fade again in Newcastle if the body work starts early.