Prediction: Sergio Martinez to beat Chavez Jr. by KO

Prediction: Sergio Martinez to beat Chavez Jr. by KOBy Emilio Camacho, Esq. Several of you have emailed me asking for a prediction for the Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. v. Sergio Martinez fight. By popular demand, here it is. First, I want to note that I am making a bold prediction because almost all experts expect the fight to go to decision and most expect Martinez to win on points. I am partly going a step further and here is why.

First, let us look at Chavez. He has youth, great conditioning, a granite chin, a size advantage, and the benefit of having his father’s advice. However, he lacks world-class experience and, the best fighter he faced, Andy Lee, in my opinion, was a overrated. More significantly, Chavez does not use his height advantage at all because his fighting style is better tailored for someone smaller like his father.

Although Roach has attempted to get him boxing a bit more to use his reach advantage, he falls back into brawler mode and looping punches to the body quite easily. Given these considerations, the only way I see Chavez winning this fight is if he is able to slow Martinez down with body shots, get Martinez on the ropes or fighting close, and pound the middle weight champion to submission with his weight advantage and relentless aggression. However, I believe this is unlikely to happen as I will explain after I analyze Martinez’s advantages.

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Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez: Just the facts!

Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez: Just the facts!by Robert Jackson: The ‘Just the facts’ series has held court for many fights dating back to the Mayweather/De La Hoya matchup, and since then has offered a technical perspective in regards to the upcoming ‘BIG’ fight, ending with the big reveal. Today’s edition will analyze and try to figure out the viability of ‘the Son of a legend’, and also, Argentina’s own Maravilla. Trainers, training and conditioning, and the all important intangibles will be discussed and dissected.

Trainers

Sergio Martinez’ trainer Pablo Sarmiento is the brother of Martinez’ original trainer Gabriel Sarmiento who guided Maravilla earlier in his career. Pablo first worked the corner of Martinez as head trainer during the Sergei Dziniruk fight, a fight where Martinez got a KO in the late rounds. In the following 2 fights Martinez was able to get KO’s in both fights. The relationship between fighter and trainer appears to be like that of 2 brothers.

Freddie Roach trainer of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, as portrayed during HBO’s 24/7 series at best appears to be just a ‘corner man’. It didn’t look like much gymwork and mitts work that Roach is known for was done between the hall of fame trainer and his charge. Chavez Jr chose odd hours to get his work outs in and worked mitts with another trainer as shown during the 24/7 docudrama. Roach’s disappointment was obvious during the 2 episode series. How close to reality this trainer/fighter relationship no one will know until fight night.

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Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum(Photo credit: Sumio Yamada) By Paul Strauss: What’s a silly movie made in 1966, starring Zero Mostel, Phil Silvers and Buster Keaton got to do with this Saturday night’s HBO PPV fight night at the Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV? Maybe it should be rephrased to …….”Life is what happens when you’re making plans”, or in this case game plans.

In the classic matchups between boxers and punchers, we expect the puncher to attack, hoping to land the big shot. If that doesn’t work, it’s expected he will continue applying extreme pressure, enforcing a threat, hoping to wear down his opponent and then eventually administering the coup de grace (or a series of them if necessary). On the other hand, the boxer is often expected to stay away, jabbing, moving and building up points in hopes of getting a decision. It’s not that unusual to expect he might even get lucky and cut the slugger and get a TKO. It’s pretty simple, right? The fighter who is best at carrying out his fight plan wins the fight.

However, more often than not, funny things happen along the way, and you’ll hear losing fighters in post-fight interviews say things like, “I just couldn’t get off tonight” or “He was faster and stronger than I expected” (Chad Dawson). Maybe the funny thing is “He was in a zone” or “He was really up for this one.” It is an emotional thing that can cause an announcer on nights like that to describe the high level of a fighter’s motivation by saying, “There’s something funny going on here”. (Can you say Buster Douglas) Sometimes new words are even invented as a result of the surprise, such as “rope-a-dope”.

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JC Chavez Jr. set the trap…has Maravilla already taken the bait?

JC Chavez Jr. set the trap…has Maravilla already taken the bait?By Joseph Herron: Great trainers insist to every fighter who walks through their gym to leave all emotion at the door. The sport of pugilism is not about violence, but built on sportsmanship, discipline, and athleticism.

Most decisions a fighter makes in the ring based on emotion almost always leads to a disappointing result. Adversely, every logical and intellectual judgment made within the hostile confines of the squared circle usually results in a satisfying performance and a victory.

Leading up to this Saturday’s main event at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring Sergio Martinez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, the fighter most affectionately known as “Maravilla” has been uncharacteristically carrying around a sack full of emotion based largely on pride, vengeance, and anger.

Will the universally recognized Middleweight Champion decide to leave his emotions at the door of the Thomas & Mack Center this Saturday night? Team Chavez certainly hopes that he doesn’t.

On July 14th, 2012, we witnessed a similar dramatic situation unfold in the ring.

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Would Chavez Jr. be popular if he didn’t have a famous father?

Would Chavez Jr. be popular if he didn't have a famous father?By Michael Collins: In looking at how average WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (46-0-1, 32 KO’s) has looked throughout his boxing career, including his time as the WBC 160 pound champion, one has to wonder whether the 26-year-old Chavez Jr. would be as popular as he is now if his father wasn’t the famous former boxing great Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. Chavez Jr. is able to draw huge crowds in stadiums and draw big ratings on HBO despite looking very mediocre.

To be sure, Chavez Jr. is winning fights but a huge part of that seems to be based on his size. He’s winning on being the much heavier fighter compared to the smaller middleweights he’s been facing. That’s part of the criticism of Chavez Jr. He’s like a light heavyweight/cruiserweight sized fighter that is somehow still able to get down to middleweight to compete against smaller guys and get and advantage in doing so.

If you compare Chavez Jr. to his father Chavez Sr. it’s like night and day. Chavez Sr. was had a ton of talent. Everything was so easy for him. He had big time power in both hands, he was light on his feet, and he never had to dehydrate down to fight smaller guys. Chavez Sr. was made for fighting.

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Sergio Martinez wants Chavez Jr. to suffer slowly and painfully on Saturday

Sergio Martinez wants Chavez Jr. to suffer slowly and painfully on SaturdayBy Dwight Chittenden: If things go the way that Sergio Martinez (49-2-2, 28 KO’s) envisions them to be this Saturday, WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (46-0-1, 32 KO’s) is going to experience a lot of pain and suffering in taking his first loss of his career when they fight at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Martinez said “It won’t be a quick knockout. I will punish him [Chavez Jr] a lot and after that I will knock him out and he will suffer a lot. I hope someone in your corner stops the fight because I will never stop. I will continue punishing you.”

Unless Chavez Jr’s chin is made of iron it’s not likely that he’ll suffer a great deal. Martinez hits with the kind of power that puts you down when he lands cleanly. Chavez Jr. is painfully slow with his movements and if he gets hurt by one of the southpaw Martinez’s left hands, it’s going to be hard for Chavez Jr. to survive it. Martinez tends to drop his opponents from single shots to the head. If he lands a clean left to the head of Chavez Jr. that could be all she wrote. The suffering won’t enter into it.

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How would Sergio Martinez or Chavez Jr. fair against Andre Ward?

How would Sergio Martinez or Chavez Jr. fair against Andre Ward?By Robert Jackson: Now that we’ve gotten Ward/Dawson out of the way, what’s up next is the Martinez/Chavez Jr fight! The winner of this fight could rightfully be in line for a BIG money PPV match-up against the undefeated Andre Ward. An undefeated Chavez Jr facing and undefeated Ward would be the better match-up unless…Martinez puts on a virtuoso performance while beating Chavez Jr.

Looking at the case for either man facing Ward next you first have Chavez Jr who at 26 is outgrowing the 160lb division, while the 37 year old Sergio ‘Maravilla’ Martinez is counting down to the twilight of his career. The BIGGER interest and promotion would be for Chavez Jr to face Ward, he has a bigger name and following. He fights in the rough-tough Mexican style even though Freddie Roach has added a few wrinkles to his style, and he would bring the fight to Ward.

Martinez a technician just like Ward starts slowly making adjustments along the way to even out a fight and makes more adjustments as a fight moves forwards to pull ahead. Late in recent fights Maravilla has gotten KO’s, after slow starts. He’ll do the same against Chavez Jr in their upcoming fight. Doing this against Ward could result in a chess match with 2 thoughtful fighters trying to out-think each other, a possibly low punch output, less action affair. Fans may anticipate a snoozer of a fight which would make this fight the least desirable one.

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Is Maravilla taking his fight against Chavez Jr. too seriously?

Is Maravilla taking his fight against Chavez Jr. too seriously?By Robert Jackson: Yesterday, I wrote a piece asking the question as to whether Julio Cesar Chavez Jr was just putting on an act for the cameras which showed him ‘slacking off’ while training for his September 15th fight against Sergio Martinez. HBO’s 24/7 docudrama featured Chavez Jr. deliberately missing scheduled training sessions, sleeping in, and not training at all in one case. In fact Chavez Jr’s body didn’t look as toned as it could be to engage in an upcoming professional fight.

To Chavez Jr’s credit his 7 day weigh-in had him weighing the same 167lbs as Sergio Martinez weighed in at. For a much bigger, heavier man that says that Chavez Jr IS preparing but playing mind games with us all.

All the while Chavez Jr was supposedly missing training sessions, Sergio Martinez was shown training like a machine with the intention as he put it to make Chavez Jr. “regret taking the fight”. Martinez was shown resting in a hyperbaric chamber to increase his blood-oxygen uptake. Maravilla has been shown executing different drills, conditioning, sparring and bag work to get him ready for battle. A lot of discipline and seriousness has been exercised on the Martinez side of things to be ready on fight night. Maybe a little too serious?

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Chavez Jr-Martinez: Dont Cry For Me Argentina

Chavez Jr-Martinez: Dont Cry For Me ArgentinaBy PADRE – Who needs Mayweather and Pacman, when the boxing fans have been spoiled as of late, with various intriguing matchups. Another blockbuster one is coming up this Saturday when Sergio Martinez takes on Julio Chavez Jr. I will cut to the chase and spare you all the scenarios and say that I pick Sergio Martinez to beat Junior decisively. Sergio is a better boxer with great foot work , power and a fighters IQ that outclasses Junior. I honestly think we may be seeing a repeat of Pacman vs Margarito. I just hope that this time someone in Junior’s corner has the sense and decency to stop the onslaught and remember that he still has a future in boxing, if he doesn’t take a battering. We all see that Margarito never recovered from that beating and ended up retiring. There is only one caveat, only one major issue that I see that may cost Sergio the fight. It’s not Juniors size, which I think will actually be a disadvantage if he comes in heavy as Sergio is a nimble fighter, nor is it Juniors chin which is very good but if you chip away at any chin, it eventually crumbles. Nor is it the punching power of Junior as he wings wide shots and Sergio shoots short crisp shots down the pocket and will do so all night. No, it’s the utter disdain that Sergio has for Junior.

Anyone that has seen 24/7, the various press conferences or meetings these two have had in public has seen the disdain which Sergio has for Junior. He honestly doesn’t like this kid at all. I have seen fighters that didn’t like their opponents and it doesn’t hurt to build up some fire towards your opponent before a fight, but there is real animosity coming from Sergio towards Junior. He feels that this kid was handed the green belt, which I agree with. That he was protected and may have lifted to higher heights, not based on his efforts but because of his last name. He wants to show this kid a lesson and punish him. He has actually said he didn’t think he could win a decision against Chavez no matter what he did, so he will need to know him out and there lies the danger.

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