By Padre: On the 3rd of December, fight fans will be presented with another epic bout, by two warriors of the sport. The Garden has been sold out and PPV tickets are showing good numbers. Why shouldn’t they, we all remember what took place three years ago and these combatants are not known for disappointing fights.
Predicting the outcome however, has drawn the line down the middle. What will happen in this fight is what is on everyone’s mind. Will we see a replica of the first fight, Miguel Cotto coming on early and a stalking Antonio Margarito finally catching up with his foe? Or will Cotto pace himself better and be able to fight his way to victory? I believe that the outcome of this fight will be determined by one Margarito.
Barring the incident of the hand wraps, the last fight played out how I thought it would. I believed that Margarito would be able to absorb the punches of Cotto and slowly stalk, wear down and finish his opponent. Those who use Mosley as an example that Margarito can be taken out, should remember that Mosley was fully developed Jr Middleweight/Middleweight and even at Welterweight was always an explosive and power packing fighter. Also Margarito has the ability to walk through punches, is not afraid of taking shots to get in one. Cotto, though a better boxer than Margarito is actually built for him. Cotto has never been able to elude punches, slip them effectively, counter well and not fall for traps.
Cotto has been known to sit in the pocket and trade instead of retreating or counter punching. If not for the handwrap incident and his fight with the Pacman, I would be looking for a complete replay of the first fight. To be honest, if Margarito had loaded gloves, he didn’t have bullet proof padding on his chin and he ate Cotto’s punches all night long and just walked through them. But, so much has changed since then and other factors will play a role.
The Eye
Without a doubt the most obvious concern has to be the eye. Margarito can say he is not worried about it, but no one knows how the eye will hold up to Cotto’s assault. Cotto has already said he will target the eye. If he is unable to see or suffers damage during the fight, expect his trainer as well as the ref to step in. His corner and the ref in his last fight received criticism for not stopping it.
The Handwraps
Margarito says he was not aware of the handwraps. I for one find that hard to believe. If he was aware, which I think he was, this may play a psychological role in that he may think he cant hurt Cotto without them. Mind you, we have no idea how long this was going on. Keep in mind that earlier in his career, he was not really known for being a puncher. Could it have been the wraps and the psychological edge factor of knowing you have them that make you fight differently? Also keep in mind an important factor. Cotto believes with his whole heart that Margarito used them against him. Will that make Margarito too eager to punch in order to prove he can win without them thus making him careless?
The Losses
In his last three fights, Maragarito has suffered two beat downs and a less then dominant win. Have these losses taken its toll on him. We all know Margarito is rugged and tough to the core, but once a fighter has suffered a beat down in the fashion that he did at the hands of the Pacman, fighters are NEVER the same.
So who will win tomorrow night at the Garden, the answer lies with Margarito.