Hopkins / Jones : The Handicappers Thread


By Erik Schaffer – This Saturday night Bernard Hopkins and Roy Jones square off in a rematch, which turns out to be 17 years in the making. The fight will be held at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. This definitely is not my high school prom night, which is the first time they fought because this time Hopkins is a huge 5-1 favorite to beat Jones. The total is 11.5 -140 over. By the way, in this thread I find it pointless to mention the records of the two fighters.

Its kind of ironic, but the last time Hopkins lost badly in a fight was when he fought Jones back in 1993 and lost a 12 round UD. Both men have gone on to have great careers after that fight.. There is no need for me to get into a debate on who has had the better career because that is meaningless in a prediction thread. The only thing that matters is who will be better on Saturday night and how can players make money on the fight. Clearly, Hopkins is the much better fighter these days. Since his close SD loss to Joe Calzaghe he has scored a big UD win over Kelly Pavlik and has also won his last tune up fight. On the other hand, Roy Jones has been having major problems. In his last four fights he is 2-2 with losses to Joe Calzaghe by UD and in his last fight he recieved a first round knock out loss to Danny Green. Some might even wonder why these two are fighting this Saturday night, it seems like a total wipe out in favor of Hopkins. But is it really?

I don’t think so, and here is why…

Hopkins has gone the distance in his last 8 fights with five of them being wins. He seems to be a distance fighter these days and that will favor Roy Jones in this fight. Hopkins also has a problem with speedy fighters. He is only 5-3 in his last 8 fights with the losses coming to Jermain Taylor twice and once against Joe Calzaghe. I know Jones does not have the same speed as he did in 93, but he still has enough to somewhat control Hopkins. And Bernard doesn’t possess the knock out power of Antonio Tarver, Glen Johnson and Danny Green. Yes, Hopkins beat two of those fighters and would beat the third but styles make fights and Hopkins has a style that will allow Jones to hang in this fight.

I see Roy Jones fighting very alert coming off the first round knock out loss to Green. Jones also knows that Hopkins wants revenge badly and has predicted a knock out win. I just cant see Jones letting this happen. I expect Jones to fight well from the outside on Saturday night, maybe more cautious than well. In no way will Jones let himself get knocked out by his rival. I expect Hopkins to be more busy then Jones in the fight and look like the man who wants to win. That very well could be the case, but Jones will not make it easy. And Jones will not go out on his shield in a blaze of glory.

Anyone know where this is going yet? Well its going straight to 12 rounds. That’s right fellow players. Our old friend the over will get us the money at 11.5 -140. I do expect Hopkins by decision to be right about the same number and that also seems like a safe play in case of a clash of heads and we go to the score cards early. But at the same time a Jones win just would not totally shock me. So in the end lets go with the over in a fight where one fighter has never been knocked out and the other will do anything not to be knocked out.

Prediction : Over 11.5 -140

Side note : I find it very funny that these two fighters have been arguing over a purse for about 10 years now. Both fighters have been very well respected by HBO in their careers. One can only imagine how much they must have upset HBO over the last 10 years when trying to make a deal for this fight. HBO has chosen not to be apart of this fight and so has most of the world. But it pays the same whether you bet $500 on the super bowl laying -140, or if you bet the over 11.5 -140 on Saturday night. So lets get the over, the win and the money.