Baumgardner vs Beaudoin Tonight: Twelve Threes, No Excuses

Most Valuable Promotions stick Baumgardner in the co-main to Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua because she’s meant to be the banker: belts, name, profile, Netflix-friendly. But this isn’t a victory parade. Baumgardner is walking into twelve three-minute rounds against a challenger who doesn’t care about résumés, photo ops, or Eddie Hearn sales pitches.

Beaudoin fights like someone who didn’t come up in boxing gyms, she came from downhill skiing and treated punching like cardio. That means she’s got zero romantic respect for the pecking order. She walks in, throws hands, and forces pace because she doesn’t know she isn’t supposed to. That’s dangerous, especially against a champion who can coast when the room lets her.

Baumgardner has belts, pedigree, and pressure,  but she still owes the division a statement

Stopping Terri Harper put her on the map. Outpointing Mikaela Mayer gave her validation. Beating Elhem Mekhaled made the sanctioning bodies bend the knee. All fine work. But since then, there’s been a lot of ceremony and not a lot of cruelty.
Two defenses and then a voluntary ditching of the WBC strap because they still refuse 12×3 for women. Fine. Bureaucracy sorted. Now what?

Baumgardner is supposed to be the puncher at 130. The slick mover. The one who can get nasty on the inside and turn a jab into a counter hook without warning. But she hasn’t smashed a contender in ages. And Netflix is not paying to watch her jab out a visitor.

Beaudoin will force her to work  or force her to get hit

Beaudoin dictates tempo. She doesn’t box at a gentleman’s rhythm. She jabs just to create havoc for her right hand and her combinations. She’s used to walking girls down. That’s fine at domestic level. At championship level, that same aggression either becomes a breakthrough or a trap.

When Baumgardner boxes long, she’s classy. When she plants her feet, she can hurt people. When she gets drawn into phone-booth work by someone with nothing to lose, she can get lazy. That’s the fight here.

If Alycia treats this as a tune-up, she’ll get her nose bloodied early. If she treats this like a business decision, she’ll allow Beaudoin to build confidence. The longer this turns into chaos, the more the odds flatten.

Nobody in this weight wants a fearless pressure worker with a free shot at history. Upsets happen when champions turn into administrators.

Friday night, live on Netflix from the Kaseya Center, it won’t matter what belts are on the table. It’ll matter whether Baumgardner hits hard enough, early enough, to make Beaudoin stop believing.