By Kirill Davydov: In every interview I watch, and in every article I read, the outcome of this fight is the same. Everyone has The Pac Man walking away with another win, and his hand held high at the end of a successful night. Once again showing us why he is the biggest name in boxing today. But I believe that what we will see in reality will be furthest from this. I see it in reverse, where the aging veteran, Sugar Shane will walk away with the biggest upset in years, and once again regain the status as one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. This should come as no surprise to any die-hard boxing fans, as this is what boxing is all about. It is what keeps us on the edge of our seats, waiting to see something that will completely shock us, and deliver the unexpected. We have seen many upsets before, Tyson-Douglas, Robinson-Gatti, or Hatton-Tszyu just to name a few.
MY REASONS: If we look closely at both fighters, we can make some very interesting points that I believe will play a key role in the outcome of this fight. Lets begin with their last few fights.
Manny has battled some big men. Although Clottey opposed almost zero resistance, he was still a naturally bigger guy who went the distance, as Cotto was another bigger man and much better skilled than the latter got stopped in the 12th. Now Margarito was a David vs. Goliath match which I believe took the most out of The Pac-Man. Even though Manny displayed amazing fighting ability, he was really hurt by some of Margarito’s big shots, especially to the body. Not to mention another 12rd fight. Now that’s 3 fights, 36 rounds. Not to mention that he has had to adapt to his new frame, which will take a huge toll on the body. Clottey opposed almost no competition, Cotto was coming off two tune up fights (one against Clottey) after his devastating loss to Margarito. He was not a fully rehabilitated fighter at the time. Not to mention that he never uses his height and fights very very low, making his 5’7″ frame seem like he was 5′ to Mannys 5’6.5″ making him an easy target for The Pac-Mans lunging punches. Margarito was a huge punching bag, that had no answer for Manny’s leaping power shots. The only reason he had Manny hurt is because of his natural size advantage. Margarito in my opinion is a hard charger, and not what you would call a “smart”, or very “technical” fighter.
Shane on the other hand has fought a total of 33 rounds in his last 3 fights. That’s only 3 rounds less than The Pac-Man, but if we look closely and examine the finer points, we can see a huge difference. He hasn’t had to struggle with moving up in weight to fight any of these guys as opposed to Pacquiao. Now we look at Margarito, who Shane stopped in the 9th round. A fighter that Manny went the distance with. The Mayweather fight in my opinion has to be looked at very closely. We noticed early in the fight that Shane hurt Mayweather which we do not see very often. If Mosley can hurt Mayweather who in my opinion is one of the best defensive boxers of all time, then he can definitely hurt Pacquiao, who is not very hard to hit to begin with….he almost wants you too. Now in my opinion this fight should not discredit Shane in anyway, because he went into a fight thinking he was going to be in there bringing the offense, where as the younger more talented Mayweather brought the fight to him, completely throwing him of his game plan. I believe that if it was the Pac-Man in the ring with Mayweather, the fight would have been stopped in the later rounds via KO. Manny has a tendency to jump in with his shots which would leave him vulnerable to a pinpoint, perfectly timed Mayweather counter punch. Shane survived the ordeal, even though he lost…I believe Pacquaio would have suffered the same fate, just that he would see it before the final bell. Now Sergio Mora, I will not talk alot about this fight…but just to say that Mora making a fight look good with anyone is almost impossible. He is a very awkward fighter, and that was just the case here…perhaps not Shanes best night, or maybe his age slowly creeping up on him.
OUTCOME: The way I see this fight unfolding. I think that the biggest key to victory for Sugar Shane will be his pinpoint jab. This is a punch that has always given problems to the Filipino. Shanes reach advantage, and fast hand speed will aid in its delivery, which could prove invaluable leading into the later rounds. Manny was troubled by some of Margarito’s shots, it didn’t look like it during the fight…but you can see the he was feeling the effect during the post fight interview. Shane is a harder puncher than Margarito, as we have seen. With Shane’s height, and reach advantage, and hs natural hand speed he will pose a very dangerous risk to Pacquiao. He has never fought somebody this big before, who not only has unique boxing skills, but also the ability to fight a thinking mans fight. Shane has the ability to adapt to the fight as it goes on, where Margarito just kept walking in and getting hit with no lateral movement. I believe with all of these natural characteristics Shane Mosley will prove to be Pacquiaos biggest challenge to date. Not to mention that Shane is going in as a major underdog, and in the eyes of most fans a way past his prime fighter. This will give Shane the psychological edge going in against a man that no one can seem to stop, who is younger, and has a lot more to lose. I see Shane coming out very early and showing Pacquiao his punching power. Both men will trade shots, and will try to figure each other out for the first 3 rounds, where Mosley will win most of the exchanges due to his size, and reach. The fight will slow down around round 4, well Mosley will adapt and begin to land flush with the jab, keeping Manny at bay on the outside, and using his size on the inside. I believe Mosley will win via TKO in or around the 10, or 11th round. Most likely by either a cut stoppage, or a counter punch that will floor Manny as he leaps in with one of his wild flurries. This is my opinion as to what will happen in May, feel free to comment, and share your opinions.