by Martin ‘The Brain’ Potter of the Boxing Clever podcast: Almost 14 years ago a young, proud and unbeaten Welsh boxer fought for his first world title (WBO). Over a decade later that Welshman, Joe Calzaghe, would retire from boxing unbeaten and having won every version of the world title at super middleweight and the ring belt in two divisions.
As Calzaghe’s career was coming to a close, another young Welsh fighter named Nathan Cleverly, record 21 (10)-0, was starting to make his way in the professional ranks and had the fortune of training alongside his great compatriot. Now, two years after Joe’s retirement from the hurt game, Cleverly has been handed his first shot at the big time as he takes on Germany’s experienced southpaw world champion (WBO), Juergen Braehmer, record 36(29)-2. Has the moment come too soon for Cleverly, or will he put Welsh boxing firmly back on the map?
This is certainly a winnable fight for Cleverly, who has size, youth and speed on his side, but I feel that he will be in for a far harder test than many are anticipating. In his last fight the young Welshman was disappointing as he laboured to victory against the unheralded Mohammedi, winning comfortably on points, but looking somewhat jaded doing so. I don’t expect him to repeat this performance against the colourful German; if he does then he could be in trouble.
Both of these fighters can certainly mix it in the squared circle, but their out of ring activities are almost more interesting than watching them fight! (I say that, but thinking about, pure mathematics – in which Cleverly has a degree – is probably not that interesting….) As an amateur fighter Braehmer beat two well know British fighters who would go on to world title glory – Carl Froch and Ricky Hatton. He also toppled his countryman Felix Sturm, who currently holds the WBA Middleweight strap, so obviously this fella’ can fight a bit. However Juergen’s time as a professional has been somewhat stop-start due to what I will kindly call ‘personal problems’, meaning he was out of the ring (but still in a confined space) between 2002 and 2005. Credit is due to Braehmer for coming back from his hiatus to capture the WBO belt in 2009. Credit is not due for having more ‘issues’ that have kept him out of the ring for the past year.
It is Braehmer’s inactivity over the past year and the uncertainty over his in ring (and out of ring) future that I feel could tip the balance in Cleverly’s favour in this fight. Cleverly has been active and prior to the mediocre Mohammedi performance, which I put down to a late change of opponent and frustration over the Braehmer situation, he was on a roll of seven stoppages in succession, which highlights his ever improving power. Nathan is the naturally bigger man and has a height and reach advantage over Braehmer, which when allied with his youth and speed could cause the champion real problems. Breahmer is, as mentioned, a southpaw, which could cause Cleverly a few issues, but considering the hours he spent sparring Calzaghe I would expect him to be able to cope with the ‘lefty’ conundrum.
When weighing up Cleverly’s chances it must also be borne in mind that the champion can bang a bit, as 29 of his halted victims would attest. ‘Clev’ has been known to get dragged into a scrap and can be susceptible to leaving his chin out and getting caught, as he did a few times against another German opponent, Karo Murat, on the magnificent seven bill last September. To beat Breahmer he will need to be a bit cuter and use his considerable smarts to keep the champ at arms length and box more on the back foot.
In the final analysis I tip Cleverly to win his first world belt by a close decision, with a few scares along the way. My advice would then be for him to make a couple of ‘safe’ defences and build his experience a bit more before diving in with the real big fish in the light heavyweight pond, such as Hopkins (if he is still around), Pascal, Cloud and Dawson.
If all else fails, he can always become an accountant!
Martin ‘The Brain’ Potter is part of a fortnightly boxing podcast, available on iTunes or at www.boxingcleverpodcast.libsyn.com