James Toney 237, Randy Couture 220 – Who Wins Tonight!

By James Slater – Tonight, a crossover “Boxing Vs. MMA” clash that has drawn a ton of attention from fans of both combat sports, finally takes place. For months now we’ve heard Toney say what he’s gonna do, we’ve heard the less vocal Couture say what he plans to do to stop Toney doing what he says he’ll do (namely “rip Couture’s head off his shoulders!”) and we’ve heard from the fans; some of whom are excited about the fight, others who are looking ahead to nothing but a “freak show..”

Now that the big Boston battle is upon us, it’s time to forget the hype and ask ourselves, who will actually win?

One clue about who will have his hand raised tonight was given when we saw the weights the two fighters tipped-in at yesterday. Toney, despite claiming to have trained hard and seriously for his MMA debut, scaled a pretty unsightly 237-pounds. Couture, a self confessed “gym rat” looked his usual chiselled self at a solid 220. Has the fight already been won and lost, respectively?

Personally intrigued by tonight’s fight, I myself was shocked when I saw photos from the official weigh-in. Back a few days ago, via a video blog, Toney was seen working out hard, and “Lights Out” looked far better than he did when stepping onto the scales. Okay, the 42-year-old still had a quite ample belly, but his chest and upper arms looked solid and powerful. I actually thought, as did UFC president Dana White, that Toney was in the best shape he’d been in for years. Now, though, mere hours before the first bell, my optimism for a Toney win has diminished greatly.

With all that excess weight, how will Toney have the speed, the agility and the flexibility to be able to wrestle effectively; without getting tired and winded? And, though he says he’ll get the KO win, you can bet money on how Toney WILL get taken to the floor at some point (barring a shock, Ray Mercer KO 1 Tim Sylvia type scenario, anyway). And if he’s in as bad a shape as he looks right now, how can Toney expect to out-strength the vastly experienced Couture when on the mat?

Toney will give it a shot tonight, and in the past he has fought effectively while carrying too much weight. Maybe he can do it again tonight; but in a new sport, whilst making his debut, shouldn’t Toney have come in lighter?

I think we can look for Couture to come out cautiously in the opening round, wary of facing the best striker of his career, before “The Natural” makes his move and takes Toney down. When this happens, unless Toney can somehow get leverage into his shots whilst flat on his back, the fight will perhaps be all over with.

Toney will be dangerous for as long as he’s on his feet, but how long will this be? And how long will it be before all that excess weight makes Toney grow fatigued? With the evidence seen at the weigh-in, Couture has to be looked at as a massive favourite to win (not that he wasn’t in the first place). Are we about to see the great James Toney get stopped in a fight for the very first time?