By Vivek Wallace: There was a point recently where one could shuffle the deck of roughly 8 contenders in this deep welterweight division and feel totally comfortable knowing the fighter chosen could potentially prove his mettle and run the boards on any given night. Fast forward a few months down the road and as if it were even possible, suddenly, the plot thickens a bit more. The last year in this well chronicled division saw the man (Margarito) who beat ‘the man’ (Cotto), lose to the man (Mosley) who was beat by the man (Cotto). No doubt, that man-moniker was probably a bit confusing, but it doesn’t take the intuitive skills of a woman to realize there’s no better way to describe a boxing division where literally every ‘man’ wants to be thee man! The return of Mayweather has been great for headlines and the mistake of Margarito didn’t help them, but in an effort to strike a happy median, both of those men and all their welterweight contemporaries take a step back tonight for two warriors also find themselves eager to take the lead. As we prepare for this showdown, we analyze “Keys to Victory”, “Four to Explore”, and an “Official Prediction”:
Joshua Clottey – (Keys to Victory):
For Joshua Clottey, this fight can be far more simple than ANYONE thinks. If Clottey learned one thing from Margarito, I hope it was the fact that pressure burst pipes. Miguel Cotto – as of last July – had no answers for a fighter that could keep him on the defensive and going backwards over the course of 12 rounds. Cotto has been in trouble a number of times against powerful fighters, but few had the nerve to step in closer and try to actually close out of fear of something unexpected in return. Clottey has arguably the best chin in the welterweight business. If there’s one guy that should feel comfortable getting a little closer, it should be him. Clottey will need to keep Cotto on his back foot and close to the ropes at all times. Another thing Margarito showed us is that Cotto is highly susceptible to the uppercut. Clottey has a strong penchant for throwing it while in close, and if he can land to the ribs and follow it up with a few of those, the dynamics of the fight can change FAST! The main keys to victory for Clottey will be to stay active, keep his hands moving, and keep Cotto going backwards. If he can execute that plan effectively for 12 rounds, he can very well seal the deal.
Miguel Cotto – (Keys to Victory):
For Miguel Cotto, keys to victory in this fight may be more difficult than many could imagine. You have the easy ‘keys’, like try not to stand and trade, or stay off the ropes; but it’s the not so easy ones that will be most critical tonight. Last July, Cotto was humbled more than any of our eyes could have ever seen, specifically because it wasn’t nearly as bad physically as it was mentally, which is where Cotto will be once again tested most. For Cotto, this opponent will be the closest template to Maragrito that the division has to offer. What’s even more troubling is that Margarito had zero defense and a solid chin, which aided him to keep pressing forward. Clottey, on the other hand, comes equipped with a near impenetrable defense and a chin just as strong. For Cotto to find success, he will need to use a very keen ability to not only pick his spots of aggression during the fight, but avoid standing in his opponents as well. Clottey is probably the sports most underrated counter-puncher, and his weapon of choice is to counter a missed left (in particular) with a deadly accurate right cross. Cotto will also need to remain within the content of his gameplan and not allow the partisan Puerto Rican crowd to coax him into a false sense of security by brawling when not necessary. If Cotto can create space by boxing Clottey and using footwork to avoid the heat, he can win this fight on a decisive points margin since a KO against Clottey is technically ruled out.
FOUR TO EXPLORE
Mercante, Mercante Not – Arthur Mercante has perhaps one of the biggest names in the sport as it relates to officiating in the ring. Trouble is, that was the legend, not his son who’s scheduled to keep the peace in the ring tonight. Mercante jr. is well respected, but truth is, he hasn’t officiated a fight of this magnitude since Cotto/Judah in June of ’07. Shouldn’t matter, but if Cotto decides to go low again like he did repeatedly against Judah, a few more points shaved may very well determine the outcome. Being a New York native, do we have to worry about him having a forgiving mood and wearing blinders for the house fighter? His past record says no, but the possibility of needing security to leave the building says lets wait and see!
The Cotto Brain-trust – By definition, the term ‘brain-trust’ is said to be a close group of advisors. For Cotto, this term serves dual purposes, as it relates to tonight. Not only is their questions relative to his first-time-as-lead-man trainer/advisor, but figuratively speaking, their are questions relative to Cotto’s ability to mentally weather the storm when he comes under fire. His trainer and his mental state will be very important for his success tonight. Can Cotto trust his new brain-trust? And more importantly, in the heat of the battle, can Cotto trust his brain to hold up?
The Dark Shadow – For Clottey, despite great talent, most of his career has been spent behind the scenes, stashed behind the presence of a bigger talent. After finally seizing the opportunity, can he finally step up and seize the moment?
The Pacquiao Path – With Manny Pacquiao scheduled to be at ringside tonight, no doubt questions will surface about his next opponent, with many in attendance hoping it’s their favorite Puerto Rican son. If Cotto is victorious, considering Pacquiao’s penciled in October 17th date and the fact that his preferred option (Mayweather) won’t be ready in time, will a groundbreaking dialogue take place to cement new plans?
COTTO/CLOTTEY: OFFICIAL PREDICTION
After watching Cotto’s victory over Shane Mosley in this same building I told myself that I would never pick against Cotto again. Less than a year later I found myself doing that very thing and learned on the spot that as good as he is, there are weaknesses to be exploited by the right guy. All doubt I had about this fight was quickly removed when my four year old son (who as most know is now 9-1 in the last 10 megafights) picked this guy to win. Remnants of the Margarito fight in the back of Cotto’s mind will come front and centered, resulting in an outcome which may once again set him back. I don’t question whether or not Clottey will have enough and do enough to get the nod. What I do question is whether or not he’ll get it in the eyes of those that count most. I have this ill feeling…..but…..
DECISION: CLOTTEY WINS THE FIGHT…..COTTO GETS THE NOD
(Vivek Wallace can be contacted at: vivexemail@yahoo.com, 954-292-7346, Facebook and Myspace)