Does Roy Jones see a weakness in Calzaghe?

Roy Jones Jr.By Geoffrey Ciani As of this moment, it appears a forthcoming showdown between Joe Calzaghe and Roy Jones Junior will soon be upon us. Negotiations for the bout have supposedly been in the works for some time, which is hardly surprising given Jones is a notoriously tough negotiator. Even though this fight would have made more sense some ten years earlier, it is nonetheless, still an intriguing clash, and one that ought to attract major interest within the boxing community.

Calzaghe is coming off the most impressive win in his career, having just beaten the ageless warrior, Bernard Hopkins. On the other hand, Jones is coming off a total farce in which he beat a grossly overmatched Felix Trinidad in a bout that should probably have never happened, given Tito was fighting well above his normal weight after a long period of inactivity. For Calzaghe, the Jones fight makes perfect sense. Given Jones’ already cemented legacy and the fact that he is clearly in decline, this could be an easy way for Calzaghe to get another feather in his cap to help secure his own legacy. For Jones, this bout is an entirely different matter.

Does Roy Jones see a weakness in Calzaghe’s style that he thinks he can exploit?

Upon first hearing of the possibility of such a contest, my immediate reaction was that Calzaghe will probably outwork and out-hustle Jones en route to a decision victory. I still believe that this is the most likely outcome; Calzaghe has absurd stamina to go along with his incredible work rate. Such a combination presents a most daunting task for Jones, especially at this stage in his career, where a series of losses in recent years has reduced him to taking on sub-par competition. In his fight with Hopkins, Calzaghe proved he is amongst the very best the sport has to offer, and indeed, an argument can be made that he is in fact the best (although, Manny Pacquiao will have something to say about that tomorrow night).

That Jones apparently wants this fight with Calzaghe is most intriguing. In many ways, it reminds me of when Hopkins was hell-bent on squaring off against Jones’ two-time conqueror, Antonio Tarver. Hopkins saw something in Tarver’s style that he knew he could exploit, and did he ever! It appears that Jones must see, or at least think he sees, a similar type of weakness in Calzaghe. I, for one, am hard-pressed to see what that weakness is, but perhaps Jones is taking more of a calculated risk and hoping for the best. After all, it is not as if he shan’t be well-paid for his efforts.

That said, I believe Jones’ best chance against Calzaghe obviously revolves around counter-punching. Against Hopkins, Calzaghe was caught with many flush counters, especially in the early-going before Joe began making the necessary adjustments. One of these counters even dropped Calzaghe on his ass in the first round. Given that Hopkins is not especially known for his punching power (which is probably underrated by most, incidentally), is it possible that this is what Jones is banking on? That he will have ample counter-punching opportunities against Joe’s often reckless style and that since he has more speed and power in his punches than Hopkins, this will lead him to victory, or at the very least, give him a chance at victory?

I do think Jones is banking on the fact that Calzaghe probably does not have the type of power to knock him out. Of course, Calzaghe has such a high punch output that a late stoppage is never out of the question, but chances are, Joe will not stop Jones early. This means Jones will have several chances to catch Calzaghe with something big, and something quick. More specifically, the longer Jones can hang around, the greater his chances of catching Calzaghe with a punch he does not see coming.

Although I still maintain that my initial reaction is the most likely outcome whereby Calzaghe will outwork and out-hustle Jones en route to a unanimous decision, perhaps Jones has more of a chance than I first realized. After all, Jones still has speed, and he still has decent pop in his punches. Maybe he can land something big on Calzaghe and help re-establish himself after disappointing efforts against Tarver and Glenn Johnson? Time will tell. Either way, the more I think about this match-up, the more interesting its prospects become.

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