09.03.04 – By Paul Ruby: HBO will stage its most celebrated card of the year to date when Joe Mesi meets Vassily ‘The Tiger’ Jirov on the undercard to Shane Mosley and Winky Wright’s junior middleweight unification bout this Saturday from Las Vegas. Overall, I do not see either of these fights being ‘Fight or the Year’ candidates, but I firmly believe each bout is surrounded by intriguing questions about style, maturity, and technique. In other words, I think this card should live up to the hype.
Mesi-Jirov will be the first bout on the telecast, and it will be won by Joe Mesi. There are a number of interesting stylistic questions surrounding this match-up, but there’s one significant reason I believe Mesi will be the victor: match-making. Joe Mesi’ career to this point has been guided very carefully by his father, Jack, and his promoter, Tony Holden.
I cannot see them risking Joe’s spectacular and untarnished record against a fighter they feel has a legitimate shot at beating Joe when a title and the ensuing payday are not at stake. That is not to say that Joe is not stepping up in class, Monte Barrett was certainly a more game opponent than David Izon, and he managed to give the Mesi Camp a pretty fierce scare.
Now, I believe that Vassily Jirov has a slight chance to win this fight, but I strongly feel that the Mesi braintrust has seen something in Jirov’s game that they think Joe can and will exploit. Personally, I believe that Joe’s natural size advantage and Jirov’s proclivity to get hit will be the difference in this fight. I do not believe Jirov is the same fighter he was prior to his war with James Toney- a fight he still contends he won. Jirov is a very good cruiserweight, an Olympic medalist, and his life is a prime example of the American dream, but I believe his best fighting days are in the past and he is now (understandably) chasing the dollars up to heavyweight. In his last two fights versus the very ordinary Ernest Mateen and Joseph Kiwanuka (who fought 5 times in 6 years preceding the Jirov fight), Vassily has looked good, but unimpressive against mediocre opposition. Jirov’s handspeed remains acceptable and his body attack precise. His defense, though, is the major problem. It just does not exist, and this is a significant disadvantage when taking on a guy in Mesi who may lack polish, but clearly has pop.
A number of critics argue that Mesi had trouble handling Monte Barrett when he switched to Southpaw in their December fight. This is true. Mesi was quite confused, but he was not battered around by Barrett from this stance. Instead, it provided a lull in the action during which neither man scored decisively, but permitted Barrett to regain his wind and get his legs back under him. I think it was confusion and not incapacity that tormented Joe at this point in his last fight. I remember asking myself why Joe was throwing so many right-hand leads against the orthodox Monte Barrett and think he’d get himself into trouble doing so. Well, it’s just the opposite against a southpaw. Joe’s jab is rarely thrown and can be inconsistent when it is. He likes to throw (perhaps too many) right-hand leads. Despite his earlier problems, I believe this is a good recipe against the durable Southpaw Jirov. Jirov’s body attack, in my opinion, will never fully develop because Mesi’s natural power and right-hand leads will carry the action. Jirov is tough and durable, but get hit far too often. I cannot see this working against an incomplete, but developing heavyweight like Buffalo’s own Baby Joe Mesi. This one could go the distance and just turn into a righteous beating because Jirov is too tough for his own good; think Hatton-Tackie. Still, I’m thinking this one gets stopped in the middle rounds. I can’t see Jirov being knocked cold, but I anticipate the referee stopping it when it becomes apparent Jirov can no longer defend himself. Joe Mesi will score a TKO 6 over Vassily Jirov.
So that brings us now to the match between Sugar Shane Mosley and Ronald “Winky” Wright for the undisputed junior middleweight championship. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a little ambivalent about using the word ‘undisputed’ because most fans and critics acknowledge that the two best 154 pounders in the world met last September with Mosley earning a controversial decision over Oscar de la Hoya to win the WBC and WBA straps. This is no time to debate the judging of that fight; as the fact remains that the judges gave it Mosley and he’s the one in the ring on Saturday night. I look for him to send a message to Wright.
Winky Wright has spent the better part of the last five years saying he was the best junior middleweight on the planet and that he thought he deserved the victory against Fernando Vargas back in ‘99. Personally, I disagree with both of those statements. You know, I used to really dislike Wright’s style. I still think he’s quite boring in the ring, but I’ve come to respect his style a great deal now. He moves quite well, his defense and concentration are well above average, and he does land scoring (but soft) blows with regularity. He’s a natural at 154, while I believe Shane chased the dollars up the scales too quickly and is only now adjusting to this weight. Shane’s adjustment to this weight showed in the late rounds of the de la Hoya bout; rounds which he won convincingly. Shane can sustain energy for 12 full rounds and there is no way Wright will hit Shane as hard as Oscar did. Shane also showed very good power late in the de la Hoya fight and an ability to throw quick, effective, short punches. I’ll be honest and say I thought Oscar was too effective early in their fight to lose on points, but the fact is that he did and it was due entirely to Shane’s hard punching in the late rounds.
I believe both of these men want badly to be recognized as kingpin at 154. There is some talk that Mosley will look past Wright and towards a superfight with Felix Trinidad, but I think Shane is too hungry for the stardom that seemed within his grasp when he was campaigning at lightweight. When both men have equal desire, two variables will combine to determine the victor- discipline and talent. Both men have shown discipline throughout their careers in the ring, so I believe the natural power advantage of Mosley will eventually tire out Winky Wright. I think Mosley’s power will carry the early rounds for him and Wright will need to start getting aggressive to score a victory. Mosley should recognize this and will take advantage accordingly. Common wisdom says this will be a slow fight and will go to a decision. I believe the first half of the fight will be slow, but that Shane Mosley will turn it on when Wright becomes more aggressive than usual and stop him very late. I look for Shane Mosley to score an 11th round TKO over Winky Wright to become the undisputed champion of the junior middleweights and heighten the excitement for a potential bout with Tito Trinidad.
A final note I’d like to make is that boxing fans have been treated to some great fights on live television of late. Erik Morales looked good with a busted up hand against Jesus Chavez on HBO while Miguel Cotto continued his winning ways and, last Saturday, a great fight and a great performance were aired on Showtime. Diego Corrales started off too strong for Joel Casamayor and looked by far the best he’s looked since before his incarceration. On the same card, Mark Johnson turned back the clock in handing Luis Bolano the first defeat of his career. Johnson has had a career that is just as remembered for his fights as for the fighters who have avoided him. Ancient by flyweight standards at 32, it appears that Johnson still has at least another couple of fights in him. Hopefully, there will be a few dollars for “Too Sharp” in fights with the likes of Masamori Tokuyama and the undefeated, heavy-handed Alexaner Munoz (25-0, 24 KO’s). I’d love to see Johnson schedule some fights in Atlantic City, near his Washington, D.C. home. Lastly, don’t forget that NBC is bringing back boxing next month with the likes of Rocky Juarez, Panchito Bojado, and Kermit Cintron gracing the airwaves. For the first time in quite some time, the future of televised boxing is starting to appear pretty rosy, and this Saturday evening should be no different.