I’ll Take That Bet – Alvarez vs. Mayweather Jr.

mayweather223Wow! Who’d a thunk it? Little Money is apparently going to do it. He’s finally going to fight someone who the fans want him to fight. His right hand man Leonard Ellerbe is already spouting talk about Little Money beating Alvarez even if he weighs two hundred pounds. That already seems to be a stretch of the truth, because, according to more than one source, it looks as though there will be a “catch weight” of 152 imposed?. Do they (Money Team) know something about Alvarez we don’t?

The early odds are about 2 to 2 1/2 in Little Money’s favor. It doesn’t look good for Alvarez fans. The experts apparently aren’t giving Saul “Canelo” Alvarez’ much for his undefeated record (1 draw).. After all Little Money has beaten the Golden Boy (SD), Sugar Shane and Cotto. He also proved Juan Manuel Marquez shouldn’t have been fighting welterweights, at least not without help from Angel Guillermo “Memo” Heridia.

The question seems to be, Is Floyd, Jr getting Alvarez at the right time or vice versa? Sure Saul has accumulated 42 victories, but he’s still only 22 years old, and Little Money is an experienced and healthy 36 years old, someone who never is out of shape and has never been beat up Saul hasn’t been through anything like the circus that fighting Little Money will put him through. The distractions might overwhelm him. After all, Little Money owns Las Vegas doesn’t he?

It might be worth betting a piece of change. Before you do though, consider this: No one has ever been able to deal Floyd Mayweather, Jr. a defeat (or vice versa)? It has to be someone who is fast and strong. This imaginary opponent, let’s call him Longshot, has to punch in combinations delivered with speed so they land before the counter punch can come back. He will have to be someone who is a master of feints, someone who can get Little Money to commit to a defensive posture, and freeze him so his explosive combinations can be ripped off. He will have to be someone who has good footwork and understands the importance of leverage. Does Cinnamon (Longshot) have these qualities? It might be worth spending a couple of bucks on your belief that he does.

Let’s look at more points of interest. Little Money has been through the “Big Show” so many times, it’s no longer any big deal for him. It’s like the dysfunctional has become the norm. . Alvarez has never been through it, at least not to the extent he will be facing against Little Money. There will be microphones and digital cameras, etc. shoved in his face constantly. He will be asked the same questions so many times that it will become an irritant of measurable proportions. There’s a danger his preconceived notions will be inadequate to the reality of things.

He will be faced with trying to develop some kind of game plan. Will he be able to land a jab, which he knows will be necessary to stay behind while he positions himself to unload combinations? Hmmmm!. Probably not, but we’re talking Longshot here, aren’t we? So, what can Longshot do to get close enough to let his shots go? Can he depend on Little Money’s age and the possibility that he doesn’t move as fast as he used to? Maybe Longshot can ask Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero about that? Maybe that’s not such a hot idea. After all, Mayweather, Jr. made The Ghost a kind of shadowy trace unable to do any meaning full haunting.

None of Money’s opponents has been able to crack his defensive strategy (nut). The P4P best has fortified himself with excellent protection, and his ability to be truculent at the same time. Forgive me for bringing up Howard Cosell, who once said to The Greatest, “Now, you’re being truculent.” Ali responded by saying, “if that means good, then I’m that.” By the way, truculent means feeling or displaying ferocity. In Little Money’s case, truculent also means gladiatorial, or pugnacious. He even has the ability to be belligerent and quarrelsome in the pre-fight proceedings, attempting to gain an upper hand psychologically. Just as Ali attempted to do, Little Money is trying to win the fight before entering the ring. Often he does. His opponents always say his tactics don’t faze them, but they fail to deal with them, and Little Money walks off with another “W”.

Expect the odds to increase as the fight date approaches. If you go for Longshots, hold on for a while and you’ll get your wish. The experts will work hard, studying Canelo’s strengths, watching film of his fights, and looking for weaknesses. Rather than gaining confidence, they will become more convinced that the Longshot just doesn’t have the necessary experience or talents to successfully pull off a win. As knowledgeable as the odds makers are, this time they might be wrong. It might be worth a Longshot bet.

Canelo showed an unexpected ability to box (science) against Austin Trout. He actually out boxed the skilled “No Doubt” Trout. He demonstrated the ability to use a little head movement, slipping punches when he needed. That’s nice to know. It will help if he can’t land his jab. He might be able to use feints and head movement to get Little Money to do that “commit and freeze” thing mentioned earlier, because it possibly will allow him to get within the distance needed to unload his solid combination punches. Mayweather will have a slight reach advantage, but Longshot is a solid junior middleweight, so Little Money might have difficulty moving him around. When Longshot rehydrates, he will definitely will be the bigger man. Who knows what the kid will do with the elbows and forearms. Hopefully, he will realize he has them too.

When Longshot’s record gets picked apart, and the experts join in saying he hasn’t fought anyone near Little Money’s level. They will say Sugar Shane Mosley was too old, and Kermit Cintron was never that good, and he just barely got by Trout. They will continue to pick apart the rest of his numerous opponents. Little Money has gone through the same critical process as well, and he simply pops off by saying he keeps winning and is 44-0-0.

Longshot will have to learn he has bragging rights as well. He needs to realize he can make the same claim. No one will make too much out of the “D”. That fight was seven years ago and only his fifth fight. Geez, he wasn’t even shaving yet. Longshot should turn things his way and emphasize he has the better kayo percentage.

Total things up now and see if it might be worth a shekel or two. There’s definitely a measure of value on the Longshot plus side. Our hero is young, but experienced with 43 fights, so that’s only one shy of Little Money. Consider too the youngster is solidly built and won’t be easy for Floyd to move around. He hits hard and throws explosive combinations, which will be harder to counter.. He also has some versatility, and just might be clever enough to crack the Little Money Nut. It’s a Longshot that might be worth taking. Maybe after all, it’s okay to describe Canelo as Longshot. You know, like the Marvel Comics super hero. Longshot possesses “probability altering” or “luck” powers. He is an action hero who escapes enslavement (defeat) by a delusional maniac named Mojo (just for fun let’s say Little Money), who lives in “Mojo World”. (In this case, just for fun, we will call it The Money Team).. Come on, everybody loves a Longshot, and this one just might have some unusual powers? . .