Johnny Nelson believes Deontay Wilder can cause an upset on October 9th if Tyson Fury isn’t on point due to complacency and or outside of the ring distractions that keep him from focusing on this fight.
Nelson doesn’t see Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs) having much chance of winning the fight other than getting lucky by landing one of his big shots.
According to Nelson, Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) has already beaten Wilder twice, although the first fight was ruled a 12 round draw in 2018. That was the contest in which Wilder knocked Fury down twice, and arguably had him knocked unconscious in the 12th round.
That would have likely been a knockout win for Wilder if the fight had taken place in the UK where the matches are frequently stopped if a fighter is showing signs of trouble.
Fury can’t be complacent
“Wilder has had a while to get cold, to get bitter, and he’s had a while to get his head into the game because the man he didn’t think could beat him beat him twice,” said Nelson to iFL TV in forgetting that the first fight between Deontay and Fury was ruled a 12 round draw in 2018.
“I think Fury beats him, but not as easy as people think,” said Nelson. “It’s a volcano fighting a tornado. You’re fighting a man that is angry and is seething,” said Nelson about Wilder.
“He’s still not accepting what happened to him in the first place and in the manner, it happened to him. And then you’re fighting a man [Fury] that knows he can beat him, and he knows he can beat him good.
“What happens is one side [Fury] is complacent. That’s the worry. The worry is that Tyson doesn’t become complacent because he knows what to do and how to do it.
“Wilder only has to land once. I don’t know what Tyson has been doing regarding distractions away from the ring since the fight, but he’s lived the life. He’s made the most of it,” said Nelson.
There’s no way of knowing what we’re going to see from Fury because he’s been out of the ring for almost two years, and he doesn’t look as bulked up as he did last time he fought Deontay.
Fury had the size and the element of surprise going for him last time he fought Wilder, considering he wasn’t expecting him to attack aggressively the way he did with flapping gloves, rabbit punching, and frequent tying up.
It’s shame on Wilder’s training team for not being prepared last time because there had been talking on social media that Fury was going to use his size to walk him down and maul him with his huge size advantage.
If Wilder had been aware that Fury was going to use his size to lean on him, forcing him to support his weight, and doing a lot of fouling, he’d had have approached the contest differently.
As we saw in last Saturday’s fight between the head-butting Josh Warrington and Mauricio Lara, it’s tough to beat a fighter that is turning the contest into a street fight without rules.
If Fury is able to rough Wilder up like last time, it’s going to be difficult for the American to win the fight unless he gets in the mud with the big British fighter and throws the rule book out the window.
If both guys start teeing off with low blows, elbows, rabbit punching, and flapping gloves, it would be a 50-50 affair. It would come down to which of the two does the better job with their fouling. That would require another ineffectual useless referee not doing his job like last time Fury and Wilder fought.
Nelson: Fury stops Wilder again if he’s on point
“Tyson Fury is a fighting man, he loves fighting, and if he’s on point, he does it in the same fashion as he did it last time,” Nelson said of Fury potentially knocking Wilder out again.
“If he’s not on point and he’s distracted by all this foolishness from outside of the ring, that’s where an upset can happen.
“I hope he [Fury] hasn’t done that and hasn’t been that foolish, and he’s got to go back to the basics that got him there in the first place.
“Have that hunger, and have that tension of respect and get in there and do the job.
“For Deontay Wilder needs to have some form of acceptable and understanding of what happened to him the first time because he’s blaming everybody else for why he lost to Tyson Fury twice.
“Not one win and one draw. Twice! If he still can’t accept that, he’s not going to fix the reasons why it happened.
“He’s blaming everybody else for what happened. Therefore, he’s not going to change his game plan. He’s not going to try and change his style of fighting and his attitude.
“If he and Malik Scott really believe the only reason he lost these two fights is because everybody else, the exact same thing is going to happen.
“I don’t think he does, I really don’t think he does, or Malik Scott will have to tell him, ‘Maybe you should try this as well.’ Wilder can improve.
“I think he’s willing. He only has to land once or maybe twice because Tyson Fury came up like Frankenstein. It’s about mindset and attitude and being realistic,” said Nelson about Wilder.
If Wilder fights the way he did last time, backing up against the ropes, standing directly in front of Fury, he likely will lose again. Of course, there were a lot of variables that contributed to that loss that would be duplicated.
Besides Wilder needing to stand with his back against the ropes, his legs would need to be tired from him wearing a heavy 50-lb ring-walk costume like last time.
Also, Fury would need to be able to hit Wilder in the back of the head repeatedly without the referee warning, penalizing and or disqualifying him for cheating. If Fury is able to bend the rules like last time, he’s got a great shot at winning the fight.