Hopkins vs. Dawson II: Why this Fight Ultimately Had to Happen

by Geoffrey Ciani – So it is official. The ageless warrior Bernard Hopkins (52-5-2, 32 KOs) will once again defend his WBC light heavyweight title against “Bad” Chad Dawson (30-1, 17 KOs) on April 28 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ. This of course is a rematch of the disappointing October 15 clash that ended in a ‘No Contest’, after initially being ruled a TKO2 victory for Dawson when Bernard could not continue following a shoulder injury.

Now that the fight is happening what does that tell us? Well for starters, it certainly suggests that IBF super middleweight champion Lucian Bute (30-0, 24 KOs) did not want to risk taking a fight against Hopkins at 175. For Bernard, he basically had two choices—land a fight with Bute or rematch Dawson. A fight with Bute would have generated more money and interest. Bute is a big star in Canada and Hopkins is also popular there following his two exciting fights against Jean Pascal. The Hopkins-Dawson match, on the other hand, was a financial disaster. It was the worst major pay-per-view boxing attraction ever, and it left the fans that did purchase it extremely disappointed. Since Bute is also smaller and less talented than Dawson, it would make him a far less daunting task. Hopkins could not land the Bute fight, however, so he had little choice but to look in the direction of Chad.

The announcement of the rematch also silences the crowd that claimed Bernard would never face Chad again. This is a sentiment that has been expressed by a vocal faction of boxing fans who believe that Bernard lay down and bailed out of the fight with Dawson, exaggerating his injury so that he would not have to sustain an inevitable prolonged beating at the hands of ‘Bad’ Chad. According to these observers, Hopkins knew he was in for a long night of trouble after falling behind early. But those clinging to such views have totally ignored Hopkins’ track record throughout his long and illustrious career. They also neglect the fact that Bernard is traditionally a slow starter who rarely shifts into full gear until the fourth or fifth round during recent years. The fact Bernard is having the rematch with Chad obviously puts an end to the notion they would never fight again. Now the focus becomes the fight itself and what we can learn from their previous brief encounter.

What has changed since their first fight? Not much really, aside from the fact Bernard is now a little older and is coming off an injury. He turned 47 on January 15. How long can Hopkins keep it up? This is a question which boxing observers have been pondering for more than a decade. As Hopkins himself pointed out on a recent edition of On the Ropes Boxing Radio, even as far back as the Trinidad fight in September 2001 people were saying he was too old and shopworn for the power-punching Puerto Rican. Hopkins has defied the odds time and time again, with notable career victories against the likes of Antonio Tarver (June 2006), Kelly Pavlik (October 2008), and of course most recently Jean Pascal (May 2011) when he became the oldest boxer in history to win a major world title at the age of 46. Can Hopkins continue defying Father Time, especially after suffering a shoulder injury at his age? Eventually it will have to catch up to him. Even Archie Moore had to ultimately stop fighting. Hopkins’ head trainer Nazim Richardson has stated, however, that we will never see Bernard “get old overnight” in the ring, because he claimed they would see it in the gym first and stop him from fighting.

Age and injury aside things are much the same they were last time around. Dawson still has the advantage when it comes to youth, strength, size, speed and athleticism, whereas Hopkins main edge comes in the form of his superior ring IQ and experience. Dawson won the first round in October and seemed to be on his way to winning the second until the bout was halted following the Hopkins injury. The early Dawson lead was to be expected, however. Hopkins is a seasoned veteran who knows how to be patient and is a master when it comes to setting traps and controlling the pace. Although Dawson was winning early, the fight was being fought at an ideal pace for Hopkins, who was beginning to come closer when it came to timing lead right hands—a weapon he has traditionally used with great success when facing southpaw opponents. Hopkins has a proven history of performing better in rematches. With his superior ring IQ, one thing that seems certain is that Bernard probably learned more about Dawson in the round plus of action we saw than Chad learned about Hopkins.

With the genuine animosity these two now hold towards each other following their first encounter, emotions are likely to be more heated this time around and that can lead to a more action-packed fight that exceeds the tactical chess match expectations most hold. Style-wise, Dawson is a guy Hopkins can still beat. Chad simply has a terrible tendency to lose focus during the course of a fight. In fact, oftentimes he even almost seems disinterested with frequent mental lapses that leave him vulnerable. These are the type of openings a crafty veteran like Hopkins pounces on with great regularity and success. Given the pacing of the first fight, it is safe to assume that Chad will not look to overwhelm Hopkins with volume and activity in the way Joe Calzaghe did, and this is another factor that plays into Hopkins’ favor in this matchup.

At the end of the day this should be a close and competitive tactical fight with intervals of outright brawling mixed in for good measure. At the very worst, Bernard has an uncanny ability to keep things close and ugly when he needs to. Hopkins has simply never been dominated inside the ring and that is not likely to happen now. In fact, a KO victory for Dawson is far more likely than a lopsided win on the scorecards. That said, even at age 47 Bernard knows what he is doing and he is an experienced survivor inside the squared circle. This means Chad’s best chance is to escape with a close decision victory, as Joe Calzaghe and Jermain Taylor both did. Given his youth and athleticism, Dawson is more than capable of pulling it off. Calzaghe did it, Taylor did it twice, and Pascal was awarded a draw in his first fight with Hopkins. This time, however, I have a strange feeling Bernard will be the one who escapes with a close and somewhat controversial victory.

This was a rematch that ultimately had to happen out of necessity. Bernard Hopkins was short on better options, and the inconclusive ending of their first encounter left unfinished business. It may not be one that fans are especially excited to see, but it is historically significant and will end all doubts in the debate regarding who really is the best 175 pound fighter in the world. We will know soon enough.

OFFICIAL EARLY PREDICTION: Bernard Hopkins beats Chad Dawson via somewhat controversial split decision.