by Andrew Harrison, safesideoftheropes.com – Photo by: Tom Casino / SHOWTME
Whoever put this together knew what they were doing.
The Super Six is proving to be everything Showtime’s bigwigs were hoping it would be, especially after Andre Ward’s startling weekend victory over tournament favourite Mikkel Kessler. As the dust begins to settle on the first round of matches, we are perhaps better placed to assess each man’s chances heading into the second stage of the tournament, with implications and permutations abound.
Here are a few key points from the opening three fights: Home advantage looks indispensable, with all three victors having had their gloves raised in front of their own fans. It may just have had a bearing on the widely criticised refereeing in the Froch-Dirrell and Ward-Kessler bouts, as well as on the judges, with many observers cocking an eyebrow at Froch’s decision victory in Nottingham. In hindsight, how shrewd were Ward’s people in securing him all three openers in the States?
Dirrell’s draw was worse than he ever imagined. The speedster from the US, had to battle the far more experienced Froch on away turf, dropping what some observers felt was a controversial decision. This leaves him having to find points against the two standouts from the initial stage in Abraham and Ward. That’s tough.
The third round Kessler v Taylor match-up could very well give one of them a golden ticket into the semis, even if they lose their next bouts. It’s something which may give the pair hope, and keep them from quitting the competition.
Let’s take a look at each man in turn.
1) Arthur Abraham (3 Points)
Abraham leads the field thanks to his crushing knockout victory over Jermain Taylor in Berlin, the only stoppage scored thus far. The German based Armenian has a style all of his own, which helps negate his size deficit (Abraham is a former middleweight titlist and the smallest guy in the field). He’s not only as tough as nails, he is quick, savvy and has knockout power allied to title fight experience.
His next bout requires a trip to the US, only the second time Abraham has ventured there in his career, where he’ll face the talented Andre Dirrell. A win over ‘The Matrix’ in January would see him safely through to the semis, yet defeat here would not derail him unduly.
The likelihood that four of his rivals can either match or trump his three point tally looks remote (Taylor would require four points from his remaining two bouts, due to losing the head to head with Arthur).
As it stands, he looks a potential finalist.
2) Carl Froch (2 Points)
Froch is in a decent position, albeit a somewhat precarious one. ‘The Cobra’ could conceivably qualify with the two points he already has, thanks to winning his head to head with Dirrell, however he faces a daunting away trip to Denmark next up, where he could encounter a backlash from the wounded Kessler.
If Froch fails to negotiate the third defence of his WBC title successfully, he may very well need to find points against Abraham, which could be difficult.
Alternatively, a win over the Dane would almost certainly rubber stamp his passage into the elimination matches, with a stoppage victory guaranteeing it. Should he fall short however, he’ll be relying on Abraham and Ward to do him a favour by winning their respective bouts.
3) Andre Ward (2 Points)
Ward’s huge win over Kessler not only turned the tournament upside down, it sent bookmakers into meltdown trying to redraft their prices. The kid from the Bay Area was viewed by many before the preliminaries began, as being simply too inexperienced to threaten the likes of Kessler and Abraham and was in fact, quoted alongside former Olympic team mate Dirrell as a rank outsider.
With the added advantage of not having to travel outside of the States, Ward’s next two bouts come against compatriots Taylor and Dirrell. A decision win over Taylor (a fight which may again grant Ward the luxury of hometown advantage) would almost certainly see him through to the semi finals, bar an unlikely chain of events, which would require that Dirrell and Abraham fought to a draw.
4) Andre Dirrell (0 Points)
Dirrell faces an uphill battle to reach the knockout rounds. His next two fixtures have him paired with the newly installed tournament favourites, Abraham and Ward. In order to overtake Froch, he needs to take three points from the duo, which looks a nigh on impossible task.
Dirrell will in all likelihood have to beat one of them and then hope that there isn’t a stoppage scored either way in the Taylor-Kessler third round fight. Based on his showing against Froch, you’d give him an outside shot at pulling out a points win at home but a stoppage win in either bout is difficult to envision.
At present, Dirrell’s chances of progression look slim. He’ll need a monumental effort against Abraham to change that.
5) Mikkel Kessler (0 Points)
Despite being annihilated by Ward, Kessler still has a good shot at reaching the semi finals. His next bout sees him square off against Carl Froch in Denmark, which must bode well for him when you consider how crucial home advantage has been thus far (Kessler’s only two defeats came on the road incidentally).
Froch does not possess the speed of Calzaghe or Ward and will be there for Kessler to hit, which increases ‘The Viking Warrior’s chances of victory. If Kessler has slipped however, which some have suggested in light of his last performance, Froch could be too tough an obstacle to overcome.
If this is the case, everything could ride on the Taylor fight.
6) Jermain Taylor (0 Points)
How amazing would this be: Taylor could find himself knocked out for the third fight running in his next outing and still qualify for the semis, thanks to a key bout with Mikkel Kessler in the third round. Kessler-Taylor not only prohibits a fighter from being able to qualify on zero points, it gives both men a golden opportunity to fight their way out of the last chance saloon (guaranteeing that at least one of them scores).
With Dirrell’s tough fixture list, Taylor may yet be able to pull off a Lazarus style comeback, however even in this unlikely event, the former middleweight king would be a colossal underdog to win the tournament outright.
His performance against Andre Ward will face much scrutiny, with many already urging this gutsy warrior to retire. It looks like he needs a miracle, which may come in the form of one well placed right hand. In boxing, you always have a chance right?