27.09.07 – This November 3rd in the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales is going to be booming. One of the best fights that can currently be made in the sport of boxing is going down and the intangibles make this a difficult fight to pick. Let me start by saying I’ve been a Joe Calzaghe supporter for years now. I think he’s been a super talented fighter and his ring and title longevity deserve credit. I believe for that and for what he has meant to the UK boxing scene alone, he’ll be a lock in for a seat in Canastota at the Boxing Hall of Fame.
Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way let me say what needs to be said; Joe Calzaghe cannot beat Mikkel Kessler.
“Why not?” you ask. “The intangibles!” I say.
On his absolute best night, at his peak shape, I would pick Joe Calzaghe over Mikkel Kessler. I think a prime Calzaghe was faster, more ellusive and had shown that he could come back from adversity. He’s fought through a ton of injuries – injuries that lesser fighters might find a way to quit from. But Calzaghe demonstrated time and time again that he had the moxy to pull himself out from the brink of defeat. Or, as Teddy Atlas might say, Joe’s gone to “those dark places where fighters go”, where they find out if they have the testicular fortitude to fight back from their worst nightmares. Also, let’s get one of boxing’s myths out of the way right now…the luckiest thing to never happen to Calzaghe’s old rival, Sven Otke, was their proposed super-match. Joe would have beaten Sven senseless.
So, what about hand speed? Nobody can deny that Kessler, the Great Dane, also has excellent hand speed and a nice variety of combinations to choose from. But Joe’s hands are still a little faster.
Who hits harder? That one is a little bit more complex. Mikkel’s got dynamite in his hands, no doubt. I think he’s one of the best combination punchers in any division right now. Joe, for a guy who has a bad reputation as a “slapper”, has this uncanny ability to just pop off a brilliant, slicing, destructive straight left hand that is almost – dare I say – Pacquiao-esque. Unfortunately, it’s not consistent enough to be a big factor. The punching power advantage goes to Kessler in this one.
When it comes to chins there is one thing we have to take in to consideration; that Joe’s chin has been tested by a better field of opponents. Kessler’s opposition has been respectable, but it’s not in the same league. With that said, Calzaghe is prone to flash knock downs and let’s not have any doubt…this Dane’s a beast! The advantage here is inconclusive.
If Kessler manages to get poor Joe hurt or wobbled, he’ll be all over him. I just don’t think Joe will survive the onslaught that follows in that scenario. Not at this late stage in his career. There’s been too much time off. Not only for the well documented injuries ‘the Pride of Wales’ has encountered, but also for the less spoken about, but oft insinuated and whispered idea, that maybe, just maybe…not all of Joe’s lengthy layoffs were unavoidable.
So what will be the outcome?
Whatever the case, the fight will be spectacular and competitive for the first round or two and then the inevitable will happen. Mikkel Kessler’s pin point straight right hand and left hook to the liver will begin hitting Calzaghe with increased accuracy and fire power. The intensity will continue from the younger, stronger fighter and Joe will either find a way out or go out the same way the great Joe Louis did when he found himself in the ring against a young and rising star in Rocky Marciano.
First the legs will betray him, and then he’ll find what every great fighter eventually does when they’ve gone one too far – that he can’t bail himself out with a lucky punch. It will be because his opponent’s punch is suddenly luckier and that he can no longer depend on his own hand speed and elusiveness. It will be because he finds his more youthful opponent is suddenly faster and harder to hit. The final step in this pugalistic circle of life will be short and not-so-sweet for all of Calzaghe’s diehard fans. When all of his skills have betrayed him, he will barely have time to realize that his chin – yes, the one that’s always been just a little suspect – will completely abandon him and leave him a vulnerable shell of his former indestructable self. My guess will be that Joe and his trainer/father Enzo Calzaghe will retire and ride off into the sunset of a comfy retirement life, happy and content. I can’t see him coming out of retirement and embarassing himself like Ray Leonard did at the end of his career.
So, respect Calzaghe for all of his boxing accomplishments and for what he’s done to awaken the sport in Wales. By most accounts he’s a great guy and it’s always a shame when another elite boxer’s career comes to a close. I for one, come November 3rd, will be able to separate my appreciation for Calzaghe and my enthusiasm for what the future will bring with Kessler at the helm of the 168 lb division.
Mikkel Kessler vs. Kelly Pavlik anyone?
This writer welcomes your comments/questions here or at boxing.raven@yahoo.com