Showdown: Cotto vs. Trout Analysis and Prediction

By ESB - 11/29/2012 - Comments

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by Chip Mitchell & Robert Uzzell

Analysis of Showdown: Miguel “Junito” Cotto vs. Austin “No Doubt Trout” scheduled to take place December 1, 2012 at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.

Tale of The Tape

Age: Miguel Cotto 32, Austin Trout 27
Current Status: Miguel Cotto – Challenger, Austin Trout – WBA Champion
Professional Record: Miguel Cotto – 37-3-0, 30 KOs, Austin Trout – 25-0-0, 14 KOs
Height: Miguel Cotto – 5 ft 7, Austin Trout 5 ft 9½
Reach: Miguel Cotto – 67 in, Austin Trout – 72 in
Knockout Percentage: Miguel Cotto – 75%, Austin Trout – 56%
Previous Fight: Cotto 05/05/2012, Trout 06/02/2012
Common Opponents: None of Note

Miguel “Junito” Cotto

The body snatcher returns! Miguel Cotto is the former WBA Super Welterweight (Light Middleweight) Champion. As stated in past analysis, Miguel embodies a fight-until-I-die brashness that has won him respect from fight fans and journalists. He’s a champion in the ring and win or lose, fans know that they always get their money and times worth of action.


Miguel Cotto has been in the ring with the best. He has fought Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao, Antonio Margarito, Ricardo Mayorga, Zab Judah, Joshua Clottey, Shane Mosley, Paulie Malignaggi, DeMarcus Corley, and Randall Bailey. The Caguas, Puerto Rico native is a four-time world champion in three weight divisions.

Austin “No Doubt” Trout

Austin is currently the WBA Light Middleweight (Super Welterweight) Champion. A southpaw, Trout has the speed and boxing skill that may put him on pound for pound lists in the near future. The Las Cruces, New Mexico native (by way of El Paso, Texas) uses the abilities he developed as a standout amateur to outbox and outfox most of his opponents.


Austin Trout’s last win was his biggest, a unanimous decision over hardnosed action fighter Delvin Rodriguez. He has fought Alvarez (no, not that Alvarez), Rigoberto who he beat for the WBA title. Austin has also fought the ageless Marcos Primera, and former IBA Middleweight Champion David Alonso Lopez. Trout was also the 2004 U.S. National Amateur Welterweight Champion.


Austin has the age advantage, not only in numbers (27 to 32) but also in the low mileage category. Advantage: We’ll go with Trout in this here.


While Miguel is at a natural weight and has looked strong in his recent fights, he’s been in ring wars with world-class opposition. Miguel is at his more natural weight of 154 pounds, as he was in his previous fight, a loss to Floyd Mayweather, Jr. However, Austin has been between 152 ½ and 164 his entire career. While both fighters have been equally active the past two years Miguel took some punishment in his last two fights, versus Antonio Margarito and Floyd, Jr respectively. As the height advantage goes to Trout, it merely gives more body for Miguel to punch. Trout enjoys a five-inch reach advantage, but I believe Cotto will focus on working the body most of the night. Advantage: Even


Austin trout has a standout amateur career which lead to him being the runner-up to make the Olympic Boxing Team. However, Cotto has the huge value of professional experience. Advantage: Cotto

The Verdict

This fight could go a few ways. Quite a few believe that Miguel Cotto is a spent bullet who Trout could easily outbox. Now let’s stop here for a minute. For those who laugh, let’s play advocate for that thought. Austin Trout is an extremely difficult guy to fight. He’s younger, hungry, has the legs to do it, and has nothing to lose. Cotto has quite a bit to lose. Win, and a fight with Saul Alvarez is very feasible. The choice of Trout is puzzling because there is little to gain from a win, with a high risk of the opposite. Trout has a great sense of distance, which will serve him well in this fight. Eventually Cotto is going to be in a fight where he hits the wall; where he has the will but his body just won’t agree. This could quietly be a sleeper fight. Maybe not a fight of the year candidate, but one in which there is a good ebb and flow. Trout outboxes Cotto early. Then the scenario switches to Cotto’s sweat equity to the body finally paying dividends. Trout will have to dig deep in order to stay outside and keep Cotto off of him. Cotto will win the inside exchanges. How much can Austin take? Or will he neutralize Miguel from the start and put on a boxing clinic?

Robert Uzzell: Miguel Cotto has too much experience. I’ll say it again. Too much experience! Trout has a nice record and it will look good for Cotto to beat a guy with a great record. It will also add another belt to Cotto’s collection and give him leverage for a fight with Canelo. He’s going to outwork Trout and give him a lesson to the body all night. He is undefeated in Madison Square Garden. The fans will be behind Miguel. That will sway the judges even if it is close. I don’t think there will be any doubt either way. Trout will survive, but I’ll go with Miguel by unanimous decision.

Chip Mitchell: There is something I like about Trout. I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe (baseball fans?) it’s the last name. I mean Miguel is head and shoulders above him in terms of experience. Trout is a southpaw with a fantastic jab. I can see a fan-friendly phone booth fight, similar to Rico Ramos vs. Efrain Esquivias earlier this year. He did beat Rigoberto Alvarez (who beat Nobuhiro Ishida, who stopped James Kirkland) handily in Alvarez’s hometown. Miguel Cotto is going to bring heat. He’s going to hit the body and search for the head. He won’t be stopped. He has advantages in experience and power. Cotto will eventually catch up to this kid. Then the questions will get answered. While Trout has good power, a solid jab, and nice hook, Miguel’s arsenal is better in all of these categories. Almost every advantage goes to Miguel. So why can’t I pick him to win this fight? Somebody help me. The coin is in the air and… I’m going with a Majority draw in this one. Trout keeps his “0” and Miguel keeps his potential date with Saul Alvarez.