Rafael and Malignaggi pick Marquez to beat Pacquiao tonight

By Steve Mabbott: Dan Rafael of ESPN and WBA World welterweight champion Paulie Malignaggi see Juan Manuel Marquez beating Manny Pacquiao tonight in their fourth fight together. Rafael sees it as a law of averages type of thing, whereas Malignaggi believes that Marquez will win a fight decision.

Rafael said to RingTV “The judges might give Marquez the slightest benefit of the doubt…so instead of losing 114-113, maybe he wins a card 114-113.”

Malignaggi said “Marquez by split decision.”

Marquez has gotten the better of Pacquiao in the three fights in terms of the action in the ring, but when it’s come to the judges giving their verdict, they’ve scored for Pacquiao in two of the three fights and scoring the first fight a draw.

It might take something special from Marquez to win this fight because what he’s done in the past obviously hasn’t been enough, and he is facing a fighter that is good for boxing due to the huge crowds he attracts when he fights and his big pay per view numbers that he brings in routinely. Beating a guy like that isn’t going to be easy for Marquez. He’s going to have to really bring the fight to Pacquiao and give him a bad beating for him to make sure he doesn’t walk out of the fight another loser.

Pacquiao hasn’t looked good in his last four fights, and there’s no question that he’s lost some of his ability. His trainer Freddie Roach thinks it’s something that can be fixed by simply commanding Pacquiao to fight at a higher pace and to be more aggressive. Whether something that can be changed in one fight remains to be seen because this is a problem that’s lasted for more than one fight and that tends to suggest that it’s nothing that can be fixed simply by telling Pacquiao to be more aggressive.