Paulie Malignaggi believes Canelo ‘Sweethands’ Plant has only one way he can defeat Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night, and that’s by putting on a “boxing exhibition” to win a 12 round decision.
(Photo credit: Amanda Westcott/SHOWTIME)
As far as Malignaggi is concerned, Plant (21-0, 12 KOs) has no shot at knocking out Canelo (56-1-2, 38 KOs), and he’s going to have an equally tough time trying to win a decision in Las Vegas.
That being the case, Plant’s best and only chance of winning against Canelo is by dominating him in a boxing exhibition in the same way Floyd Mayweather Jr. did in 2013.
But even Mayweather couldn’t get all three judges to agree that he won the fight against Canelo, which shocked many fans. One judge had the fight a draw was incredible given the masterclass that Mayweather had put on against Alvarez.
Plant must outbox Canelo
“You’ve got a guy that is used to big fights, and you’re coming in and not used to big fights,” said Paulie Malignaggi to Fighthype on the Canelo vs. Plant fight.
“I don’t think so,” said Malignaggi when asked if Canelo took something from Plant mentally from their press conference in Los Angeles last September. “It’s great gossip fodder for sure. I don’t take anything out of that. You’ve got two guys that want to get at each other.
“I’m not going to make a prediction, but if you see Canelo winning the fight, you see him winning late to mid-rounds KO. If you see Caleb winning the fight, I see Caleb giving a boxing exhibition and using Canelo’s slower feet against him.
“It’s hard for me to see Canelo winning by a decision. But I think if Canelo has the advantage in the fight, Caleb probably doesn’t last that long,” said Malignaggi.
It’s going to be hard for Plant to outbox Canelo for 12 rounds to get the win, especially if he’s getting nailed occasionally by big shots.
If Plant plays it safe by throwing mainly jabs, the judges won’t give him rounds if he’s not throwing power shots. We already saw Gennady Golovkin come up empty against Canelo despite jabbing his head off in their two fights in Las Vegas.
Plant won’t be given a beating
“Canelo is not the kind of guy; he hits so hard. He’s not the kind of guy that is going to beat you up,” said Malignaggi. “You’re probably going to get taken out of the fight if he’s beating you up because he hits too hard.
“You’re probably going to get stopped. I don’t think you can be in a vigilant type of fight with Canelo because, for one, Canelo is not busy.
“He’s not going to give you a total beating. Number two, he hits too hard. So if he does start to land, you’re probably going to end the fight.
“That fight is going to be over. So for that reason, I don’t see it going the distance if Canelo is winning the battle. But at the same time, I find it hard seeing Caleb stopping Canelo too.
“Caleb will win by decision. But that then begs the question, ‘Can he get a decision?’ That’s another can of worms there,” Malignaggi said.
Pauli is probably right about Plant folding quickly if Canelo starts dominating the contest early with his hard shots.
Like Malignaggi says, Canelo hits too hard for him to give Plant a sustained beating on Saturday. If Canelo is landing his big power shots with regularity, Plant will likely get taken out.
Plant must use a lot of movement for the complete 12 rounds for him to escape taking a beating in the fight, but if he moves nonstop, he’s not going to win a decision. He’ll survive, but he won’t be given the victory.
It’s a tough spot for Plant because he wants to come out victorious, but the only chance he has is if he boxes Canelos head off the way Mayweather did, and I don’t think he can do that without tiring.
What’s really impressive about what Mayweather did to Canelo is that he was 36 at the time of their fight. This wasn’t a prime Mayweather, and he no longer had the mobility that he once did.
It didn’t matter because he was light years ahead of Canelo in the talent department.
Caleb can get off to a good start
“Canelo, no matter how big the fight is, it’s business as usual,” said Malignaggi. “I think Caleb has the ability to get off to a good start early, I really do. He’s overall a very smooth boxer and has the ability to get off to a good start, as long as his legs are strong.
“If his [Plant] emotions are not in check, he’ll have problems right away.
“He’s [Canelo] seen all the styles, and he knows how to deal with all the styles. Kovalev, even though he’s a big Eastern European guy, I think he was timid by that point in his career.
“I thought he fought well, but eventually Canelo got him out of there. Do I think the Golovkin experience helped him in dealing with Kovalev? Yes, absolutely.
“You go through those fights, and you do become a better fighter from having gone through them, but I still think Golovkin was better. I think he was a different quality,” said Malignaggi.
Plant must get off to as good a start as possible because that’s his only chance of winning the fight. Plant has to win at least four of the first six rounds for him to have a shot of pulling off the win in the second half, but it’s going to be difficult.
If you saw how Canelo got the worst of it in his fights with Erislandy Lara and Gennadiy Golovkinand still wound up not losing, it shows what Plant is up against.
If the fight were in neutral territories like New York or one of the Southern states, Plant would have a chance of winning a decision, but that’s not the case.
The fight will be taking place in Las Vegas, meaning Plant has virtually no chance of winning a decision.
I mean, Plant’s probably not going to score a knockout of Canelo because he’s proven he can handle the power of Sergey Kovalev, Gennadiy Golovkin, and Miguel Cotto.
Take the fight to Canelo, back him up and hit him 3 times to 1. Canelo will run out of gas by round 5.