Khan/Garcia analysis

By Glenn Cowie: This is a big fight for WBA light welterweight champion Amir Khan (26-2, 18 KO’s), moreso now he has been reinstated as WBA champion. Should he lose to WBC light welterweight champion Danny Garcia (23-0, 14 KO’s) on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada, I feel he will find it hard to negotiate his way into the big fights he so desperately craves (Floyd Mayweather, Tim Bradley) whether that be at 140 or 147lbs. Khan has unbelievable hand speed and does punch with authority, although I do not believe he posses that concussive one punch like a prime Kosta Tszyu or Marcos Maidana.

Khan has a snappy and spiteful jab that, when utilised properly by the Bolton man, could trouble ANY fighter in or around his division, including Mayweather. My concern is Khan’s adaptability. If he hits his opponent with everything, and they are still there smiling, I get the feeling Khan has trouble reverting to a plan B. Tap, tap, tap, run tactics will only get you so far and to an extent this was exposed against Peterson (albeit knowing what we do now) and Maidana (who was one clean shot from KO’ing Khan in 2010).

Garcia is good solid champion but does not look like the spectacular fighter the yanks crave. Good jab and general punch variety, but minimal head movement and a tendency to get into a tear up, which could play right into Khan’s hands. Although undefeated, I think Garcia has a flattering record as opposed to a stellar record. A past it Kendall Holt, a way past it Erik Morales who did get to Garcia and leave him with a few war wounds after 12 rounds. However, he demands respect as the WBC title holder and should not be overlooked. If he can take Khan’s electric hand speed for 3/4/5 rounds, then what happens. Does Khan revert to type and get dragged into an unnecessary war, or can he maintain composure and discipline to prevail. Garcia has not said much in the build up to this fight. Does he really believe he can beat Khan and unify the titles?

Prediction: Whilst Garcia has to be respected as an undefeated champion, I do not believe he has been in the ring with anyone close to the current talents of Amir Khan. The frustration element and emotions for Khan in losing to Peterson, THEN having the rematch cancelled, THEN having the WBA title handed back must have affected him in some way, but the question is how much. Whilst I think there may be the odd scare for Khan, I believe he will have too much speed and snap for Garcia to deal with. If a past it Morales can hit Garcia cleanly on numerous occasions, an on the game Amir Khan could win this fight on his jab alone if he remains focussed and takes on board the considerable knowledge of Freddie Roach.

I am taking Khan to put on a boxing clinic for 9/10 rounds before forcing the stoppage. Garcia is almost expected to lose to the bigger name and could certainly come again if he does at only 24. Look at Paulie Malignaggi for example. Battered by Ricky Hatton and used as target practice by Khan; 2 years later he is a world champion again at a higher weight. If Khan loses, where does he go? Welterweight to fight a Kell Brook or an Victor Ortiz? There is only so much excuse laden waffle the British public will take should he come away with another L on the record.

A good fight, but with the potential to be very one sided if Khan can stick to what he is good at; Boxing, plain and simple.