by Geoffrey Ciani (Photo by Stefan Hoyer) – Many observers are expecting a competitive matchup when IBF/WBO champion Wladimir Klitschko (55-3, 49 KOs) and WBA title holder David Haye (25-1, 23 KOs) square off in a highly anticipated heavyweight unification bout on July 2. In fact, not only are a lot of viewers seeing David Haye as Wladimir’s toughest foe since his first fight with Sam Peter, some are even actually expecting Haye to win! While the event itself will no doubt draw a lot of attention, is this fight itself going to live up to expectations? Is David Haye really going to represent a difficult challenge for Wladimir Klitschko?
When you break this fight down to its bare essentials, we are left with a good big man fighting a good little man. Historically, this does not bode well for Haye. The reality is Haye’s best chance is a mere puncher’s chance. It is true that Klitschko has been knocked out in the past, and it is also true that questions have long surrounded his chin. Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see a scenario unfolding where Haye lands a big shot and Wladimir is out for the count. This, however, is an extremely unlikely outcome. Yes, Haye has a “puncher’s chance” but in order to capitalize on that, he has to actually take chances, especially early. As a heavyweight, Haye is not big on taking chances though, and it would be surprising if he suddenly changed his tune against the best boxer he has ever faced.
If you look at David Haye’s victory against Nicolai Valuev when he captured the WBA title, it was hardly an impressive performance. The majority of onlookers agree that a 45 year old version of Evander Holyfield put forth a better effort against the seven foot giant. Haye would finally land a big shot in the final round, but through eleven rounds of “action” he refused to take the type of chances that he needs to take if he is to have any chance of success against Wladimir. It is doubtful his approach will change. Even looking at his most recent effort against undeserving challenger Audley Harrison, Haye started off cautious and timidly. The point is that David Haye is unwilling to take risks unless he feels safe.
In his fight against John Ruiz, it is true that he beat Ruiz from pillar to post with relative ease, but Ruiz always made the inexplicable mistake of trying to box when paired off against naturally smaller and quicker opponents like Roy Jones and James Toney. While Haye showed undeniable power in that fight, it was only after he had assessed what Ruiz brought to the table and was confident in landing his power shots, and even in that fight he could have taken ‘The Quiet Man’ out earlier had he pressed more and taken more risks.
Klitschko has been like a fine-oiled machine in recent years, using his superior reach and size to systematically break down foes both mentally and physically before usually scoring a late round stoppage. He has a telephone pole jab and deceptive hand speed. Once he establishes his jab, big right hands and snappy left hooks soon follow, and before long Klitschko has reduced his opponent into a helpless shell of survival as he essentially has his way with them. The only reason to believe that David Haye will not suffer the same fate as Klitschko’s recent opponents is that he has a puncher’s chance. Having a puncher’s “chance” requires one to take risks, however, and Haye has not shown an inclination to do so since moving to heavyweight and orchestrating this event through the use of clever PR tactics and smart matchmaking.
At the end of the day, Klitschko has every advantage going into this fight. He is bigger, faster, stronger, more experienced, better skilled, and a naturally more gifted athlete. Making matters worse, according to Klitschko’s head trainer Emanuel Steward, Wladimir has not been this perturbed with an opponent since winning his rematch with Chris Byrd. Expect David Haye to go down as soon as Wladimir lands his first big power shot, whether it be a big right hand or a quick hook off the jab. Either way, once Klitschko lands big this one will essentially be over. In all likelihood, when all is said and done this one will end up looking like an utter mismatch.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION: Wladimir Klitschko KO2 David Haye
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