By Bill Patrice Jones: Brash, arrogant, detestable, loveable, great for the sport, bad for boxing, the list goes on. Call Haye whatever you want, but this Saturday in Hamburg he poses a serious threat to Wladimir Klitschko’s reign as world heavyweight champion. Roughly 90% of the boxing public are expecting Klitschko to walk away with a tenth successive title defence. More money is coming in on the big Ukrainian the closer the bout looms. Wladimir tells us he is bringing David ‘back to reality’ on Saturday, presumably he plans to do so by thoroughly outboxing and outgunning someone who has thus far treated heavyweight boxing as pantomime instead of legitimate sport.
David Haye has his critics for a reason, he deserves them. Ever since his move to heavyweight, following back to back title wins at cruiserweight in 2008, he has; deceived, manipulated, obfuscated and at times conned large portions of British fight fans. From the very beginning of his heavyweight quest he promised to show us what a sham the current division is. He told us they were too slow, too heavy, unmotivated and uninspired. No superlative was too strong in his eyes for criticising a top ten heavyweight. He even took the time, after reviewing his second round technical knockout over Enzo Maccarinelli on setanta sports, to meticulously analyse several of the top names at heavyweight. He and Booth listed their weaknesses, and explained with customary arrogance why the Hayemaker would be too much for them. At the time many insiders in the sport thought there was serious substance to what Haye was claiming. They still do. The problem is thus; in the time since Haye sized up the division in 2008 until now, he has not fought one single name on he and Booth’s alleged hit list. He is about to get into the ring with the best name on that list, none other than the world’s best heavyweight. If Haye is going to be successful on Saturday then he will have to accomplish what so few before him have managed. To take one of the biggest leaps in class between his last opponent, and a championship fight and be successful doing so.
This is the salient issue at hand the British media aren’t stressing nearly enough. It’s not the size, or reach, disadvantage Haye is facing. It’s the fact that at this point Haye is still very much an unknown entity at heavyweight. We still have no solid, or conclusive, way to gage just how well his attributes will stand up to a genuine contender. His power, chin, durability and stamina have not really been put to the test. Any combination of wins over legitimate contenders such as; Eddie Chambers, Samuel Peter, Chris Arreola, Ruslan Chagaev, Tony Thompson, Odlanier Solis and so forth, all potentially winnable fights for Haye, would give boxing insiders a much clearer picture of his chances this Saturday. It’s too late for that now though, and likelihood of victory must be assessed with what information about both men we have at hand. Whilst he remains something of an enigma at heavyweight, Haye should still be considered a menacing threat to Klitschko. This isn’t because of the simplistic, and completely inaccurate, idea about Wladimir being a glass chinned phony. It’s because styles make fights, and Haye could prove to be a stylistic nightmare for Klitschko. If you analyse Klitschko’s most recent fights it would appear the last thing he wants to deal with is a; quick, elusive and fast punching heavyweight, who won’t allow himself to be an easy target.
One of the ironies about Haye is that for all of the glamour and glitz that have gone along with him, he remains a genuine tough guy to deal with in the ring. Seldom has there been a fighter seemingly so relaxed, and at ease with himself, before a big fight. The sort of natural swagger which Haye can’t help but exude is a product of the faith he has always had in his punching power. When you honestly believe, because of past experience, that you can knock out anyone you face, psychologically you have a massive edge. It’s certainly not a natural confidence that Klitschko himself possesses. One could take a quick glance at Haye, with his designer sunglasses, and instinctively imagine him to be all style over substance. This perception of Haye is superficial at best, because when stripped to his core he is someone who ‘loves to fight’ as Booth recently told skysports news. George Foreman elucidated part of this phenomenon when discussing his legendary loss to Muhammad Ali in Zaire. He said that prior to that fight his belief that his punching power could knock out anyone he faced, gave him an inner strength he carried with him into every bout. Haye isn’t lying when he says he believes his shots will take down either Klitschko, it’s something he’s learnt from fighting and training in world class gyms around the world. Even though we haven’t seen the best of it at heavyweight, Haye’s power is not overrated.
Over the past five years Wladimir Klitschko has managed to dominate the heavyweight division in a way which commands serious respect, and admiration, yet he is still prone to disappoint on occasion. The single biggest determining factor in that disappointment has been his reluctance to let punches go on heavyweights who are in retreat. Wladimir, for all his ability, on occasion still fights with far too high levels of anxiety. We should remember this because such performances aren’t in the distant past either. Though he was utterly dominant from start to finish, one still remembers Wladimir’s reluctance to let punches go on a practically incapacitated Hasim Rahman in 2008. Furthermore one might also remember Emmanuel Steward’s deep frustration at Wladimir’s lack of punch output on two smaller, lighter punching heavyweights in Sultan Ibragimov and Eddie Chambers. Once again, only a fool would criticise Klitschko for winning all 12 rounds in both fights, but the signs are perpetually there that Klitschko is reluctant to unload out of a combination of anxiety over his own vulnerability, and a desire to fight the perfect fight.
Wladimir at times casts a figure too wrapped up in doing everything methodically, and carrying out the gameplan to the final letter. Even in highly impressive recent knockouts over former champions Ruslan Chagaev, and Samuel Peter, there were still ever so small signs that Wladimir will never be the tough guy his brother is. Just because he isn’t a naturally offensive fighter doesn’t mean that Dr Steel Hammer can’t be called among history’s best. What it does mean though is that Haye could create for Wladimir more anxiety than any of his recent opponents by quite some distance. This time he will be fighting someone who’s not only elusive like Chambers, but who can punch with serious velocity on the counter attack.
Some reading this might balk at its significance when Klitschko’s punch output, and jab, will almost certainly be superior to Haye on the night. Yet if one starts from the basic understanding that recent Klitschko opponents are landing literally no significant punches, Haye need only land one or two good shots per round to already be a bigger test than most.
For years following Klitschko’s shock losses to Lamon Brewster and Corrie Sanders, the perceived wisdom was that in order to beat Wladimir you had to attack him head on. Many have tried this since and failed, principally because employing such a tactic has meant that they take far too much punishment on the way in from a concussive hitter. A tremendously tough 2005 version of Samuel Peter came close to making this gameplan work, but took far too many along the way, partially ruining him in the process. Freddie Roach and others have spoken of Haye’s need to be super aggressive. Yet is such an idea at all realistic? If Haye rushes Wladimir he will be knocked out. However because of the power he possesses in both hands, fighting on the backfoot will not necessarily mean he gets hopelessly outboxed.
Due to the uncertainty there still is over Haye’s pedigree at heavyweight most writers/journalists are sitting on the fence with predictions. It would be an honour to see the Klitschko brothers realise their dream of holding all four championship belts and make history, and if Wladimir Klitschko performs to the best of his ability that will happen. It’s perfectly conceivable that the brash Britain could be outclassed this Saturday. However, taking all factors into account this author will take a gamble and go for the upset. Will a Haye win be good for the division? If he intends to make good on his retirement and not make any title defences then it most certainly would not. However if he backs down from that promise of early departure from the sport an upset win could liven up the division for the next couple of years.
Due to Wladimir’s history of reluctance in letting punches flow against elusive fighters, one can expect he will be more anxious than usual in letting them go against one who can do damage. In spite of him holding so many of the advantages, and in spite of him being a great heavyweight champion, expect him to be stunned on Saturday night at the Imtech arena in a massive upset. Haye will not win this fight because Wladimir is overrated, or a ‘fraud’ to use his language. Wladimir will be defeated because he is fighting someone fast and powerful, in a fight he can’t afford to lose for the sake of his image. It’s not inconceivable that Wladimir is carrying a great deal of pent up emotion into this fight. He knows how high the stakes are with boxing history within his grasp, and he just might crumble mentally under that pressure.
Haye by a TKO which gets drawn suddenly and quickly somewhere before the eighth round in a fight that Wladimir will be winning on points.