Can Hopkins Beat Pascal a Second Time?

By John Gabriel Thompson: Though the Canadian and Belgian judges both scored the bout a majority draw, the majority of boxing fans and pundits, as well as the American judge of the match, believed that Bernard “The Executioner” Hopkins (51-5-2, 32 KO’s) did enough to take the title from WBC and IBO Light Heavyweight Champion Jean Pascal (26-1-1, 16 KO’s) in December of last year. An old adage in boxing goes that a challenger has to “take” the title from the champion – in other words, it’s not simply enough to outbox the defending champion and come away with a close decision, but one must take the fight to the champ.

And old Bernard Hopkins (not long before his forty-sixth birthday) did just that in Montreal. Known more for playing it safe and taking the action out of fights throughout his long career, Hopkins went in to the bout like a hungry young fighter. But can the Renaissance man now known as “B-Hop” turn back the clock one more time and take the title from a warrior half his age this coming Saturday?

Jean Pascal was born in Haiti, but moved to Quebec, Canada at a young age. After his older brother won the Quebec Boxing Championship, Pascal joined a boxing gym at the age of thirteen. He went on to become a seven-time Canadian amateur champion and competed in numerous international competitions including the 2004 Olympics. As a professional, Pascal won multiple super middleweight titles (NABF, NABA, and the WBO NABO) while compiling a stellar record of 21-0 (14 KO’s), before meeting then undefeated Carl Froch for the vacant WBC super middleweight title in 2008. This turned out to be a fight of the year candidate, though Froch earned a close but unanimous decision. Pascal moved up in weight shortly thereafter, and won his next five in a row, including career defining wins over undefeated fighters Adrian Diaconu (for the WBC light heavyweight title) and Chad Dawson (for the IBO title). All but two of Pascal’s professional bouts have taken place in Quebec.

Bernard Hopkins’ resume reads like a who’s who of boxing. Fights with Oscar De La Hoya, Felix Trinidad, Joe Calzaghe, Antonio Tarver, Jermaine Taylor, Kelly Pavlik, Winky Wright, Glen Johnson, and Roy Jones Jr., have both propelled Hopkins into the sport of boxing’s upper echelons and kept him relevant for almost twenty years. In fact, Hopkins won his first title just under twenty years ago, when Pascal was only nine years old and Ronald Reagan was President of the United States. All but three of Hopkins’ professional bouts have taken place in the U.S. (his record in those bouts 1-1-1).

One of the most compelling aspects of the fight will be how Hopkins deals with Pascal’s power, which is odd to say being that Pascal is not necessarily known as a power puncher. However, in their first meeting, Pascal knocked Hopkins down once in the first round and again in the third. While the first knockdown may have been caused by an illegal blow to the back of the head, the second knockdown looked legitimate. Hopkins may not have been hurt, but Pascal does seem to have the requisite power to score a flash knockdown. And to Pascal’s credit, Hopkins had only been down once or twice in his entire career, the most recent being back in 1994. Of course Hopkins has never been noticeably hurt in the ring, and not even in his losses has he been dominated or beaten up. Then again, neither has Pascal. His match against Froch was a slug fest, yet Pascal’s chin held up just fine.

A lot of people are bringing up another major factor – the location of the fight, Montreal. With all due respect to a city that has been hosting some world class fights lately, putting passionate fans in seats when the sport in North America is on a decline as a whole, it can be very hard for a foreigner to win a decision there. And Pascal is a local. Of course, Pascal would face the same issues facing Hopkins at the Blue Horizon in Philly; however, it is a shame that the rematch couldn’t have taken place somewhere more neutral like Las Vegas.

The number one issue I see in this fight for Hopkins is that his game plan is out there for Pascal. Sure, the reverse could be said, but Pascal is generally going to fight the same way he always fights: defensively with bursts of speed and aggression. Hopkins made a career out of fighting dirty, ugly, defensive fights. Yet the match with Pascal was entertaining with plenty of action. Going into the first fight, Hopkins’ strategy must have been an enigma to Pascal; almost certainly Pascal did not expect Hopkins to come out with such aggression. Pascal now has had six months to watch tapes and prepare for a rematch. Of course Hopkins could change it up and wait for Pascal to come to him, but I don’t think he will. Pascal is too effective when allowed to fight in bursts followed by quick retreats, and though we say Hopkins is aging like fine wine, in reality his reflexes are not where they were when he was in his twenties or thirties. As widely publicized, if Hopkins wins the titles, he will become the oldest boxer in history to win a world championship.

For Pascal to do better in the rematch, he must be more aggressive. He essentially gave away almost every round after the third through inactivity, allowing Hopkins to set the pace and score points. Pascal had his best moments when they traded blows, and though exchanging with such an experienced counterpuncher is risky, Pascal needs to take those risks if he wants to win in the eyes of the fans. If he sits back and fights a Pascal fight, Hopkins will dissect him for a second time. If he takes the action to Hopkins, Pascal could come away with a legitimate claim to his own belt.