By Marius Vibe – I’m one of the many boxing fans that think the sport is in trouble, thanks to the abundance of weight classes and organizations, and the complex politics of title challengers, to mention just a few things. So when I heard about the Super Six Tournament, I immediately thought it was an exciting new event in boxing, and I vowed to follow the competition with a keen eye. I’ve seen many of the tournament’s fighters in quite a few matches before, and the ones I was more unsure about… well, I thought I’d form an opinion about them quickly enough after some additional research and seeing them pitched against fighters I already knew in the first round of the tournament..
So, as we all know – this is what happened in
Group Stage 1:
1: Arthur Abraham defeated Jermain Taylor by knockout in 2:54 of round 12.
2: Carl Froch defeated Andre Dirrell by split decision.
3: Andre Ward defeated Mikkel Kessler by technical decision in 1:42 of round 11.
To be clear on this, I predicted the first two fights’ outcome, and chose to just observe on the third, because I felt I didn’t know enough to make an educated guess. I just needed one more piece of the Ward puzzle.
I thought Abraham would knock out Taylor sooner, though, and I thought Froch would be a little better. I actually gave the second fight to Dirrell (just barely), but I can absolutely understand why the decision went the way it did. Just so that we’re clear.
After watching Andre Ward against Mikkel Kessler, I believe I am able to form a clear opinion about him, and I really feel that I have a good chance to come with some accurate predictions here.
And this is what’s next:
Group Stage 2:
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
2_ Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
3: Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward
Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham
It’s a tricky one, but from what I saw from Dirrell against Froch, I’m pretty sure about the outcome of this anyway. Froch is a pretty easy puzzle to solve, but Dirrell failed to impress in that fight. Like I said, I felt that Andre won, but he didn’t DOMINATE the way he should, not according to his style, and not enough to snatch a belt away from a title-holder. Now Abraham is much more difficult than Froch. He’ll perform his trademark peekaboo-style, and Dirrell will try to solve it, with little success. Abraham is just too strong to be bothered by his opponent, and I think it’ll show. I can’t really see Abraham fast enough to catch Dirrell with something stupid either (and Dirrell is too good for that), but Andre will run around too much, and look too careful and weak to win this one. It’ll be a repeat of Froch-Dirrell, only much clearer.
Winner: Abraham by decision.
Mikkel Kessler vs. Carl Froch
God, I’m looking forward to this one. Those two are insanely proud fighters, square, macho fighters who will stand toe-to-toe and do their best to reduce each other to pudding. It won’t be a hate match, like with Froch-Dirrell, because Kessler is way too humble for that (he’ll treat Froch with the respect he’s deserved), but I think it’ll be exciting and pretty darn hardcore anyway. (It’ll most likely play out something like Kessler-Mundine, which was a really good fight). I still believe Kessler is strong as hell, and even more motivated than before, after losing to Ward. Mikkel will give Froch his first loss, but I don’t see Froch going down either. That boy has a good chin and an insane fighting spirit – never mind his shortcomings – and Kessler really isn’t that kind of a knockout puncher, in my opinion. He can hit, sure, but more of the overwhelming kind of punching, not the brutal, flashy hits it would take to sink Froch.
Winner: Kessler by decision.
Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward
Again, to clarify: I think Jermain Taylor is a shot fighter. I think he’s the weakest in the tournament right now, and Ward may be the strongest. The four losses in Taylor’s career have come in his last five fights. Also, losing two fights in a row when there’s less than 20 secs left of a 12-rounder MUST take its toll and mess with his head. If not, Taylor is the strongest athlete, mentally, in sports history. I don’t think that’s true. Taylor may have a couple of tricks up his sleeve yet, and he may be more unpredictable than Kessler was, but no way is he going to hurt Ward. No way can he dodge everything the young and hungry Andre has coming for him from all angles. Ward will eventually overwhelm Taylor in the late rounds, when everybody knows he’ll fade.
Winner: Andre Ward by TKO (probably after round 8)
And then we’re ready for
Group Stage 3
1: Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
2: Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
3: Mikkel Kessler vs. Jermain Taylor
Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward
These two guys are very similar in style (maybe it’s something about the name Andre?) the way I see it, but Ward is just doing everything BETTER than Dirrell. I think this might be a horrible fight to watch for a lot of people: tentative, probing, careful fighting, very technical… until it’s all over, and you’ve realized that Ward has landed the few punches and combos that were significant. I don’t completely rule out a KO victory (because I think that Ward is the only one who could actually hit Dirrell properly while he’s off-balance), but I doubt it.
Winner: Andre Ward by decision.
Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham
This fight could be a blast. Froch will be aching to make a statement after his first loss against Kessler, so he’ll absolutely be looking to knock Abraham’s head clean off. He’s just that kind of fighter. Problem is, that’s the worst thing to try to do against Abraham: he’s about as hard and tough as you can get in that weight class – just watch his first fight against Edison Miranda, who failed to knock him down, even though Arthur had a broken jaw. Froch is too slow to avoid Abraham properly as well, so this should be an all-out war, to prove who’s the strongest; who’s got the largest stones. Well, it’s Abraham, and he’ll introduce Froch to something he’s never felt before:
Winner: Abraham by KO (probably before round 7)
Mikkel Kessler vs. Jermain Taylor
Well, it could be an interesting fight, but I fear it’s going to be very one-sided. Jermain isn’t technically skilled enough to dodge what he has to dodge from Kessler. Kessler is stronger than Taylor, and has a better chin (Taylor hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2005 anyway). Jermain isn’t fast and agile enough to dominate Mikkel… the list goes on. They’re both well-balanced fighters, but Kessler just has that extra edge to him that makes him dangerous. The Dane will wear his opponent down and use his stamina and power to finish the job. It may even prove to be a career-stopper for Taylor. It should be.
Winner: Kessler by KO
…which gives us this scoreboard:
Pos Boxer F W L D KO Pts
1 Arthur Abraham 3 3 0 0 2 8
2 Andre Ward 3 3 0 0 1 7
3 Mikkel Kessler 3 2 1 0 1 5
4 Carl Froch 3 1 2 0 0 2
———————————————————————————–
5 Jermain Taylor 3 0 3 0 0 0
6 Andre Dirrell 3 0 3 0 0 0
This should be extra painful for Dirrell, since that decision he should have had against Froch would have been enough to continue to the next stage. So would facing Jermain Taylor – since he’s the weakest of the six. One bad decision and an unlucky draw will spell the end of the Super Six Tournament for Dirrell, not the lack of ability. A shame, really.
Then we’re on to the semi finals:
Position 1 vs. position 4:
Arthur Abraham vs. Carl Froch II
It’s going be similar to the first fight, only now, Froch will have more respect for Abraham’s power. Did I say respect? I mean fear. Froch will be more desperate to score a KO, but he’ll be backing up a lot more as well. He may even be able to stand upright after 12, but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’ll more likely be vulnerable and tired, and go down in the later rounds.
A guy like Froch, with his sense of pride (some would call it inflated ego, or even arrogance), could even be expected to hang up his gloves after such an ordeal. Three losses in a row, after being undefeated for so long? That’ll be hard to swallow.
Winner: Arthur Abraham by KO
Position 2 vs. position 3:
Andre Ward vs. Mikkel Kessler II
I think Mikkel will do a little better this time around. He’s a very intelligent, adaptable fighter, and I think he’ll try to take control earlier on, apply pressure and try to set the pace. What hasn’t changed since last time, though, is that Kessler simply doesn’t have the tools to deal with Ward. What’s Mikkel supposed to do? Get 20% faster? Stronger? Change his style completely after 46 pro fights? He was completely outclassed in their first match, and he’ll most likely be outclassed again. Maybe he’ll win a few of the earlier rounds, but after he’s slowed down a little and getting frustrated, Kessler will relive his nightmare and become Ward’s punching bag again.
Winner: Ward by decision
…which would give us this:
Finals:
Arthur Abraham vs. Andre Ward
Not the most exciting fight I can imagine, but I truly believe these two will meet in the finals. When I say it’s not exciting, it’s mainly because of two things: 1) There’s no way in hell Ward can knock out Abraham. Forget about it. Ward is no KO guy, Abraham is a machine. 2) There’s no way in hell Abraham can catch Ward doing something stupid. I’m not even sure that Abraham can catch Ward at all.
This is what I see happening: From round 1, Abraham will do his peekabo/tank/whatever-you-want-to-call-it thing where he lets the other guy pummel him for a while, and then answers in short bursts, with fearsome power. Thing is, Ward will absolutely NOT get tired. He’ll dart in, punch Abraham a lot and find openings where no other fighter has found openings in Abraham’s defense before. Abraham will open up, try to answer, but Ward won’t be there to be hit. Lots of swings and misses from Abraham, Ward will punish him for it, and Arthur will retreat into his shell again. Repeat for 12 rounds.
After a while, I suspect that Abraham will be increasingly frustrated, but it won’t matter. He’ll only miss more and make everything clearer for the judges and us:
Winner: Andre Ward by decision
So, Andre Ward, the winner of the Super Six Tournament!
If somebody told me that a few weeks ago, I would simply reply with a resounding “naaaah…”, but after seeing what Andre Ward did to Mikkel Kessler – now I’m a believer. It’s not just that he beat him, but HOW: If he just looked faster and more technical, that would be as expected, but he looked STRONGER as well. I expected to see Ward shy away from Kessler’s power, but that’s not what happened at all. At no point in the fight did it seem like Ward was in danger, and he never had to run.
It was a supreme show of force, and I believe he’ll give us many great fights in the future.
A final word: Remember that this is just semi-educated guessing on my part, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. I’d love to see what others think of my predictions, but please remember that part of me wants to be wrong about these predictions as well. In boxing, anything could happen, and the constant possibility of an upset is one of the things that makes me love this sport. For that, I’ll gladly risk being wrong and looking utterly stupid.