Predicting the road path of today’s top welterweights

By Michael Montero – Regardless of which man you have ranked number one, everybody in the world sees Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather as the top two fighters at welterweight right now. It’s unanimous, and for good reason. These two must clash in the ring next year, there’s simply no other logical match for either of them. But other than these two all times greats, there are big names at welter and junior welter that would make for intriguing matches next year. I decided to analyze a few possibilities…

Ricky Hatton versus Juan Manuel Marquez:
This fight makes too much sense, in fact I predicted it in the beginning of the year when Marquez signed on to fight Pretty Boy Floyd. The outcome of that bout was known by most before the contracts were even signed.. That, combined with Hatton’s loss to Pacquiao, made me ask “where does either man go if they continue fighting on?” Hatton-Marquez would kind of serve as the “consolation prize” of the Pacquiao-Mayweather sweepstakes. Marquez was way too small at 147, but should carry some of his power at 140. And while Ricky once seemed unbeatable at that weight, there are now questions as to whether his chin has been “cracked” for good. Could Marquez hurt him, or would Ricky out-muscle him? It’s an intriguing match up. Another selling feature is that Hitman Hatton is one of those “on the border” possible hall of fame candidates; a win over a lock solid hall of famer like Marquez may just get him over the hump. Consider the fact that both fighters are under the Golden Boy Promotions banner – and that they could easily pack 50,000 fans into any arena in Manchester – and it’s a no brainer. One thing’s for sure though; this should serve as a “farewell” bout for both men, should it happen. It should be their last big payday and their last pro bout. Both gentlemen have been in many wars and health concerns could turn into reality should they fight on for too long.

The rest of 140:
Timothy Bradley is certainly the front runner, but his resume is far too thin to get a fight with Hatton or Marquez. It appears that the eventual “big match” for the future of 140 could be between himself and Amir Kahn, as long as they both continue to win. There’s also the winner of the Juan Diaz-Paulie Malignaggi rematch; who wouldn’t love to see the winner fight Bradley or Kahn? Devon Alexander is another possibility, but his resume is even thinner. Guys like Nate Campbell, Junior Witter and Joel Casamayor are all on their downslide and will probably serve as tests for up and comers from here on out. Campbell and Witter are coming off loses (Bradley and Alexander, respectively) and Casamayor has been inactive and heavy. Kahn-Witter makes sense early next year in the UK should Kahn get past Dmitriy Salita next month. Bradley-Alexander also makes a lot of sense and unifies titles, should Bradley win his December bout (against mandatory Lamont Peterson). Juan Urango and Marcos Rene Maidana are bangers that make for good fights, so we’ll undoubtedly see them in the mix. These guys all need to fight one another so we can get a unanimous #1 and #2. I figure by the end of 2010, the picture at junior welterweight will be much clearer.

Miguel Cotto-Antonio Margarito rematch:
No I’m’ not a masochist, I just believe this could serve as a “redemption” bout for both men, especially Cotto. For Miguel, it would be a chance to kill the demons from his controversial defeat in the first bout. For Antonio, it’s a chance to erase the controversy altogether and prove his win was legitimate. I think most observers (including myself) believe Margarito cheated in the first bout and without the plaster would have lost a decision to Cotto. A rematch could serve as a great way to take something that was more than likely unfair, and make it fair. The glove controversy alone would sell this bout. Not to mention the Mexican-Puerto Rican rivalry. Wouldn’t mind seeing this one in New York during the Puerto Rican Parade – the atmosphere in the Garden would be sick. They are both promoted by Bob Arum so this fight would be easy to make. Where else does either man go at this point? I don’t think Margarito wants a rematch with Mosley, and I doubt Cotto does either. Guys like Berto and Clottey don’t bring as much money to the table. As crazy as it may sound, this one makes a lot of sense.

Joshua Clottey versus Andre Berto:
This is assuming that Berto loses when he faces Shane Mosley in January, which I believe he will. Should he win his people would probably call out Miguel Cotto. However, if he loses to Mosley, where does he go from there? How does he regroup and prove himself after his first loss? Regarding Clottey, there’s really nowhere to go as he’s with a small promoter and doesn’t bring much to the table financially. These guys are the same size, fight orthodox, and make for good fights. Stylistically this could make for a great “HBO Championship Boxing” card as I’m sure one of the alphabet groups would sanction it for a vacant title. For the winner, that strap could serve as a bargaining chip for a bigger fight in the future. In my opinion this is another one that makes a lot of sense. My money would be on Berto. And should the Cotto-Margarito rematch happen, who wouldn’t love to see Berto face the winner?

Winky Wright-Shane Mosley III:
You’re raising your eyebrow at this one, aren’t you? Yes I’m serious about this match up – hear me out… Honestly, Wright is stuck in “no man’s land” and Mosley just seems to be the odd man out in the Pacquiao-Mayweather sweepstakes. Should Shane beat Berto in a couple months, what fights make sense for him at 147? Cotto isn’t going to give him a rematch and Pacman and Money May are on their own collision course. Why not move back to 154 and challenge Winky Wright one more time? Both are with Golden Boy, both are in the twilight of their careers and neither really have any other big name options at the moment. Wright faces Grady Brewer at middleweight next month; can anybody say “tune up”? He can easily lose another six pounds and meet Mosley at junior middleweight next year. For Mosley (who I believe has more left in the tank than Winky), he could avenge his two loses to Wright in 2004. If this bout actually did happen and Sugar Shane won he’d have to be considered #1 or #2 at JMW. Should Paul Williams still be around (and still without the Pavlik match), it could set up a big match for all the marbles at 154. Of course Shane could hold out for the Pac-May winner, but they’ll probably retire after that fight. Why would they want to fight on after winning the richest fight in boxing history? There’s a small possibility of Pacquiao having a farewell fight in the Philippines after Mayweather, but would it be against somebody as risky as Mosley? I doubt it.

The rest of 147:
Let us not forget that there will be a loser in the inevitable Pacquiao-Mayweather bout. If it’s Floyd, perhaps we will indeed finally see a Mosley-Mayweather fight. I have a feeling that win or lose; Manny’s fight with Money May will be his last… With Pac, May, Mosley and Cotto all seemingly on their way out; it leaves a big gap at the top of this weight class. Andre Berto seems to be the heir apparent, but maybe somebody from 140 will move up and make some noise. After 2010, welterweight will be an uncertain division for a while. But I believe the gap will be filled rather quickly as this division has always been rich with talent.

Questions, comments, hate mail? You know what to do.

Ciao,

Michael Montero
mjbdetroit@aol.com
(PS: if you like my stuff and wanna talk boxing, feel free to Facebook me)