Taylor – Pavlik Prediction

27.09.07 – By Matthew Hurley: As the days leading up to the highly anticipated middleweight showdown between champion Jermain Taylor and challenger Kelly Pavlik have wound down I have become a fence sitter. Going into the bout I felt Pavlik would own Taylor outright but, as is usually the case, as the bout gets closer to the opening bell I’ve become more hesitant in my pick. That’s boxing, and styles make fights..

Jermain Taylor has really proven only one thing since he ascended to middleweight glory. He truly is willing to take on all comers. Many in the press have derided him for lackluster showings against Kassim Ouma and Cory Spinks – two undersized opponents that Taylor should have wasted.

But those two tricky fighters have also provided problems for nearly every fighter they’ve fought and Taylor was coming off three consecutive bouts with future hall of famer Bernard Hopkins and possible hall of famer Winky Wright. There is the real possibility that Taylor suffered a severe letdown. He seemed distracted against Spinks and obviously refused to listen to trainer Emanuel Steward’s instructions.

On the under card of the Taylor – Spinks debacle, Pavlik scored the most impressive win of his career when he bludgeoned Edison Miranda into submission. It was a true coming out party for the “Ghost” and it set up this major showdown with Taylor. The question is, was Pavlik that good or was Miranda that overrated? It’s a little bit of both, but Pavlik is the real deal. He’s a tough, straight ahead fighter who possesses a good jab and a dynamite right hand. He’s also hungry and feels that his working class upbringing in Youngstown, Ohio is a perfect fit for a middleweight champion. Indeed middleweight champions like Brockton’s favorite son Marvin Hagler all the way down to Detroit’s Sugar Ray Robinson and his Bronx nemesis Jake Lamotta were all tough guys from tough neighborhoods. That’s what the middleweight division represents.

But Jermain Taylor has a heavy stake in this match up as well. He’s tired of the negative press. He truly wants to prove that he not only belongs in the pantheon of middleweight elite but that he’s one of the best fighters, pound for pound, plying his craft right now.

I’ve been leaning towards Kelly Pavlik ever since this fight was signed but I’m going the other way in my prediction. I think Jermain Taylor will squeak out another tough decision but this one will be clear cut. Pavlik will have his moments, but Taylor’s athleticism will rescue him down the stretch.

Jermain Taylor W12 Kelly Pavlik