In just a few hours, questions raised will be questions answered as undefeated Middleweight king, Gennady G. Golovkin (35-0, 32KO’s) squares off against undefeated Welterweight warrior, Kell Brook (36-0, 25KO’s) in London’s O2 Arena. In a sport known to measure heart and will, some feel the big difference tonight could come down to skill. Despite being the smallest man Golovkin has faced in his career, (on paper), the cerebral style of Brook, combined with relatively good power could serve as an ultimate spoiler when the final bell sounds. As we prepare for this showdown, we’ll take a quick glimpse at Keys to Victory, Four to Explore, and an Official Prediction.
KEYS TO VICTORY (GGG)
For Golovkin, the keys to victory are fairly simple: “pressure burst pipes”, and “jabs win fights”! Against David Lemieux, Golovkin proved that he could not only introduce a new wrinkle, but he also proved that he could execute flawlessly while implementing it. A razor sharp jab is the best way to offset an opponent, and also the best way to setup those thunderous punches of his that typically follow. Patience will also be a key factor for Golovkin, as Brook is arguably the smartest skill fighter he has faced. If Golovkin can setup his powershots with the jab and exercise patience, this will be a very easy night for him in the end.
KEYS TO VICTORY (BROOK)
For Brook, keys to victory won’t be quite as simple. For the first time in his career he’ll be taking on an opponent who is a full fledged middleweight. Many have taken note of the fact that he also walks around in the middleweight range; but Adrien Broner was clear proof that an ability to walk around at a particular weight doesn’t mean one has the ability to fight, remain durable, and execute at that weight. Brook is the faster fighter of the two, and the biggest key to victory for him will be a fast start. Golovkin normally takes a few minutes to warm up. Brook will need to make him uncomfortable by landing powershots and escaping return fire from the first bell. If he can frustrate Golovkin early, he could seize the moment late. Jab, speed, defense, and footwork could easily spell victory!
FOUR TO EXPLORE (CRITICAL GAME CHANGERS TO WATCH)
Thunder vs Lightning: It’s no secret that the power of Golovkin could pull the curtains on this affair before the average fight fan gets halfway through that bowl of chips and dip! But to suggest that this would be the case is to suggest that the man across from him would be dumb enough to give him that opportunity. Brook enters the ring knowing he has to escape the thunderous right hook and that patented left hook to the body which normally follows. Being the faster fighter with much quicker footwork is one thing. But is it conceivable to think Brook can actually escape this level of wrath for a full 12 rounds? Most feel he’s the best Welterweight not-named Mayweather. We watched Mayweather escape Canelo. Tonight, we get to see if ‘lightning’ can strike twice.
Power Play: Earlier this week, Carl Froch spoke of how “uncomfortable” he was sparring with Brook leading up to his Dirrell bout, while others openly noted how “strong” he was during casual bench pressing in the gym. Not too long ago, Willie Monroe produced a few shining moments against Golovkin using a cerebral style and good in-fighting, but limited power gave him limited success. If Brook can tie Golovkin up and move him around on the inside, does the power advantage held by GGG lose its pop? Golovkin’s admission that Brook appears “stronger” than he anticipated was easily the most intriguing soundbyte of the week. One that he, fans, and media all took mental note of. How does this reconcile when the bell rings?
Tell or Tale?: The resume of Golovkin has been widely scrutinized, and for good reason when you acknowledge the following: he’s an undefeated fighter, 30+ years old, with 30+ fights and 30+ knockouts with not one P4P level opponent, and only one title victory over a standing champion. When you analyze this truth, one can’t help but question whether or not the ‘greatness’ often applied to his name is fact or fiction. A win tonight could potentially “tell” us we were probably right. A loss would clearly tell us that all the “tales” were indeed an epic fail. Stay tuned.
Fear Factor: Leading into the David Lemieux fight, trainer Abel Sanchez told us that due to the fact that they’ve never really seen Golovkin buzzed or hurt, he “doesn’t know how or Golovkin would respond” in the event that such a moment actually happened. Judging by the perceived size differential, it’s hard to fathom Brook actually stunning, hurting, or dropping Golovkin; but if such a moment does happen, how easy would it be for Sanchez (on the outside of the ring) and Golovkin (on the inside of the ring) to complete the mission? This point is raised because as odd as it may sound, there’s a deeper logic that says it could very well happen. Styles make fights, and Brook’s style could bite! How Golovkin handles it could dictate how it ends.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION (UPSET BAROMETER: 1 – 5)
Despite the negative rhetoric and many subplots looming over the airwaves, this bout is the biggest bout we’ve probably seen this year, and it could very well go down as one of the best. In Golovkin you have a fighter that comes to seek and destroy that has never met a challenge in the ring that he didn’t welcome with open arms. In Brook, you have a fighter who has done something few seem to be willing to do in this era, which is dare himself to be great! When two talents on this level collide, you know it’s going to be one helluva ride! What we know is that this won’t be a slow paced chess match. What we also know is that both men will come to attack and set the tone, with Brook probably taking more chances early to see if he can somehow set the table to coast late.
Sounds good in theory, but there’s one thing most of us just can’t get past, and that same thing will inevitably be part of tomorrow mornings headline. That ‘thing’ is the power of Golovkin! While Brook has the skill level to make him miss and make him pay, it’s just very difficult to believe that he – as a man who has never taken a middleweight punch with 10oz gloves for 12rds – would be the first guy to go the full distance with Golovkin. If he can somehow last long enough to do that, all bets are off, and I’ll openly support him as the fighter to get the nod if it goes that far. But all things remaining equal, there’s no way you can pick around the power of Golovkin. Particularly against a smaller man.
GGG: TKO9 {Upset Barometer Peaks at 3 of 5. Brook will have his moments, but won’t quite steal this moment}
(Vivek “Vito” Wallace can be reached at 754.307.7747, wallace@boxing247.com, Facebook, and Instagram)