This Saturday night from the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California, Ryan Garcia faces Javier Fortuna streaming live on DAZN.
Fortuna’s underrated skills, punch activity, an awkward southpaw style could make for a difficult outing. It will be interesting to see how Ryan will approach this matchup. Will he be aggressively moving forward per usual? Or will we see a more patient approach coming from Garcia? And, of course, we must ask the question of whether Ryan has learned to stay disciplined by tucking his chin, especially if he’s looking to cut off the ring in the opening few frames.
The betting books have this fight set around anywhere from +600 all the way up beyond +800 for Javier Fortuna as an underdog. Combining previously stated reasons along with Javier’s experience as a pro, one would assume Fortuna is a somewhat live dog at that price. Interesting tidbit, according to Keith Idec, the weight limit was raised to 140 pounds more than a month ago to accommodate Fortuna. Apparently, Javier went into training camp a little heavy, and though he may have an issue making the lightweight limit. Making for a bit of a head-scratcher considering Javier Fortuna weighed in a 135 in February. Fortuna was overweight back in 2018, challenging for Robert Easter Jr.’s IBF title weighing in at 136 ½. In his next fight, he stood on the scale at 139 ½ in a battle versus Adrian Granados.
Last summer Javier Fortuna lost a competitive fight with Joseph Diaz Jr., but his punch output was much higher, landing 202 while throwing 761. Fortuna threw over 200 punches more than Diaz. However, Jo Jo landed 193, clearly favoring Diaz in the accuracy department and, more importantly, meaningful shots. That night Diaz attacked not only the head but the body, something Ryan Garcia should take note of for Saturday’s affair. If Fortuna mixes movement foot/upper body and counters with a decent volume, he will be a handful for Ryan, who’s only had one fight since January 2021.
Ryan Garcia seems to be just as focused on a potential fight later this year with Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis as he is against Javier Fortuna. Garcia wouldn’t be the first fighter to put the carriage before the horse if he were to stumble or have a so-so performance. That said, plenty of top-level fighters are capable of walking while chewing gum, so to speak, and we won’t know until the first bell. This boxing podcaster’s guess is trainer Joe Goosen has Ryan Garcia ready to go, so there shouldn’t be any excuses. One can assume Garcia will be the guy coming forward but will he be pressing right out of the gate?
Look for Ryan Garcia to be aggressive but only to an extent in the first few frames. Fortuna has the ability on the outside to win rounds early, so don’t be shocked to see Ryan being up 4-2 or even 3-3 at the halfway point. Because of Fortuna’s skill set, and also, let’s not completely forget Javier does have good pop on his punches, one can assume we will see a tad bit more responsible or at least somewhat patient Ryan Garcia in the early goings. Both boxers’ jabs could play a massive role in how this fight plays out either early on or overall. If Fortuna can be effective with his jab, it will help him score points, land power punches, and keep Ryan from being able to set his feet to punch with authority.
On the other hand, if Garcia can apply a consistent jab, it will only further open Fortuna’s body, and we know Ryan has a considerate amount of power in his punches compared to Fortuna. Could we see a repeat of Luke Campbell with Javier able to drop Ryan Garcia due to his chin not being tucked and lackluster attention to defense? This hack-of-a-scribe thinks it’s entirely possible, but we will also see a repeat as far as Garcia getting up and taking over the fight, landing flush shots to the head and body. All and all, this should be a good litmus test for Ryan Garcia. If a stoppage comes, it will be in the latter part of the fight.
My Official Prediction is Ryan Garcia by Unanimous Decision.
Side Note: Don’t miss Arnold Barboza Jr. vs. Danielito Zorilla in the main event this Friday on ESPN after an NBA Summer League Game. Although Barboza Jr. is the favorite to win, Zorilla is in the +135 to +190 range which is pretty good value.
Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio & Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio