Much is at stake when Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez meets Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin this Saturday night live on HBO PPV from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Middleweight supremacy and PPV king status is on the table for either man that walks away the victor. Will the power of Golovkin overwhelm the Mexican superstar? Or will Canelo’s overall skill & boxing politics be too much for Triple G to overcome?
For about two and half year’s this Canelo vs. GGG fight marinated on the back burner for Oscar De La Hoya. Oscar took the time to allow his fighter to build his body up to the middleweight division. Most of the boxing world grew impatient after Amir Khan led to Liam Smith as Canelo’s next opponent last September to make matters worse it was on PPV.
In May, Canelo took a money grab fight against long faded and disinterested Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Behind closed doors was an agreement being negotiated for Golovkin and Canelo to fight on this upcoming Mexican Independence weekend. Thank goodness the agreement was already in place because Canelo/JCC Jr. was a horrendous mismatch. Instead of a post fight press conference and weeks of scrutiny for what many called a 70 dollar sparring match, the focus was on Canelo and GGG. Golovkin was their live as they announced the super fight and Gennady did an interview on ESPN’s Sportscenter.
On the Golovkin side of the story, the Kazakhstan native kept plugging away and piling up the knockouts at middleweight waiting patiently while at the same time gaining much fanfare. What made this matchup more even on paper was Golovkin looking at times ordinary or at least beatable against Daniel Jacobs back in March. Many, including this hack of a scribe, thought Jacobs had inched his way to an upset victory. Regardless of how anyone scored the fight the sentiment was Golovkin is getting old and is now on the down slope of his career.
I don’t believe Gennady showed his age against Jacobs. Jacobs represented Triple G’s best and most powerful opponent who had a size advantage and good foot/hand speed. If anything should be analyzed it would be lack of quality opposition on GGG’s resume. He’s faced power punchers like Curtis Stevens and David Lemieux but neither did much on the outside or inside.
Let’s get to the brass-tax as far as style matchup for this event the lead promoter is calling “8 rounds of hell”. Now I totally understand why Oscar would attempt to promote a war in the main event but in reality it’s unlikely to produce constant exchanges. That’s not to say the fight won’t build and turn into something close to great, I just don’t see Hagler/Hearns early or ever.
For Golovkin to be successful it all starts and ends with his shotgun jab. The most effective jab in the business not only sets up the rest of his arsenal it also has plenty stank on it. Golovkin also throws hard hooks to the head and body to go along with a vicious right hand. Triple G will need to keep his normal active pace when it comes to punch rate and push forward but not necessarily aggressively. It’s important for Golovkin to stay at range keeping a comfortable distance were he’s deadly. If he gets too close Canelo will be expose him, especially when he has Alvarez on the ropes.
Canelo will need to be patient and smart but it wouldn’t hurt for him to lift his punch output a notch or two. If at all possible pushing Golovkin back for a change could benefit him greatly. More than likely it will be Canelo needing to use a pivot and/or lateral movement. The ever popular red-headed Mexican doesn’t have to do the Ali shuffle, but he will need to use a tight-circle movement technique much in the way Jacobs did. Faced with a consistent jab from GGG, Canelo will have to both jab back and at some point use timing to counter with right hands and left hooks. Exploiting the body is a must as it worked wonders for Jacobs, who in spots was able to freeze Golovkin making him hesitant.
Golovkin’s power jab will land well and likely carry him to an early lead on the scorecards. It’s up to Canelo to contain Gennady’s jab and begin to chip away at Golovkin’s body and early score-cushion. Canelo’s upper body and head movement will be put to the test the whole time. Chunks of the rounds will be more of a chess match while other moments someone will separate on the strength of clean punching. I do believe in small increments will get all out punching and exchanges.
Two major items standout out when predicting the winner on Saturday night, one reason is based off what I saw out of Jacobs versus Golovkin and what I think Canelo can somewhat emulate. The other item is the judging and how it will swing towards the younger more popular pugilist. Canelo received a draw scorecard vs. Floyd Mayweather. Against Erislandy Lara Canelo got a 117-111 and somehow got way more than the benefit of the doubt 118-109 card facing Austin Trout.
That factor alone, combined with the confidence of Canelo being able to win say 4 or 5 rounds should tell us all we need to know. Barring a stoppage Canelo will take the first meeting of a possible trilogy between the two men.
My Official Prediction is Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez by Split-Decision.
Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available on Apple Podcast (ITunes), Player.FM, Stitcher, Tunein, www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio & More. Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio