Why Saul Alvarez will not be the next big thing

By Aidan Garcia: Saúl Álvarez in beating Matthew Hatton earned himself the WBC version of the light-middleweight title and extended his unbeaten record to 37 fights. A world title at the age of just 20 is a feat few fighters will ever achieve, but much more is expected of Álvarez and Oscar De La Hoya has declared that he is seeing the “next big thing.”

Oscar De La Hoya is wrong, and a careful look at both the opponents and performances of Álvarez indicates that he might just fail to live up to his superstar billing. Hurt in the first round by Jose Miguel Cotto, a career lightweight, suggests that the whiskers of Álvarez are not made of the sternest stuff. Some might say he was caught cold, and well, that may be true but superstar fighters, or fighters who go on to be superstar fighters don’t get hurt, wobbled or caught cold by fighters who operate normally two-weight levels below them. When was the last time we seen Julio Cesar Chavez wobbled by a featherweight during the 90’s whilst campaigning at lightweight? Exactly.

Looking at the most recent performance of Álvarez gives the biggest cause for concern. Let’s ignore the fact that against Cotto, the feet didn’t move too quickly for a superstar in-wait and as a result took punches he shouldn’t have, or that against Baldomir he looked very unexceptional,(and quite slow too) until he produced a stunning, and it was, knockout. The knockout against Baldomir flattered to deceive. Álvarez did something Mayweather didn’t do, but that has more to do with Baldomir’s punch resistance being gone than it has to do with the punch power of Álvarez, and the performance against Hatton proves it.

Matthew Hatton whilst being in possession of a European Belt was not and is not the best fighter in Europe. This is a fighter who has a loss on his record to a boxer who was 9-43-3 (David Kirk) at the time. Superstars do not struggle to make quick work of fighters who have lost to journeymen. They just don’t. Let’s look at a couple of real possible superstars around now:

Gamboa and Rigondeaux. These guys (and many other fighters not as highly touted as these two) get rid, and rid quickly of fighters who have no business being in a ring for a world title. Rigondeaux and Willie Casey springs immediately to mind. Saúl Álvarez did not do this; despite hitting Hatton with everything other than his mother’s kitchen sink, (Hatton also is not, by his own admission, a light middleweight). This further suggests that the Baldomir KO was down to Baldomir being finished and cannot be attributed to some marked improvement in the punch power of Saúl Álvarez.

Álvarez is a good fighter- there is no denying that, and I am sure that with additional experience he will become a well-rounded fighter, who may well win a couple of world titles dealing with voluntary and mandatory defenses with relative ease, but will always come up short under the lights in big matches. A De La Hoya, Mayweather, Mosley, Jones Jr or Hopkins he is not. None of the aforementioned had their chin, hand and foot speed and punch power called into question against the Matthew Hattons and Jose Cottos of this world. At simultaneous points in their careers, all of the above Hall of Famers (Present and Future) produced stellar performances that Saúl Álvarez hasn’t.

Added to that the fact that he twice failed to make the weight in his first world title fight might suggest that he approached Hatton with contempt, which doesn’t bode well, or maybe he is genuinely filling out, and may move up in weight again in the near future. This makes the memory of him rocking in the first against the lightweight Cotto even more disturbing.