by James Slater, photo by Tom Casino – Mexican hard man Librado Andrade has made it quite clear he will start his second fight with IBF super-middleweight ruler Lucian Bute much faster than he started the first fight back in October of last year. Everyone knows what happened in that controversial final round last year, and Andrade now has a second chance to stop the unbeaten fighter he almost stopped over 14 months ago.
The questions is, will Saturday’s intriguing rematch go the way Andrade wants it to, or will the superior boxing skills of Bute once again see him to victory?
Bute, 24-0(19) was miles ahead on points going into the final round of last year’s fight, but the stubbornness of the iron-chinned Andrade and his refusal to get discouraged saw him almost pull off a sensational last-round stoppage victory. Some experts felt the hammering Bute took in that 12th round would have a lasting effect on him, perhaps even shortening his career. But “Le Tombeur” looked great in his next fight, when he TKO’d the useful Fulgencio Zuniga inside just four-rounds – in a fight that took place less than five months after the hard night with Andrade..
A bigger puncher than he perhaps looks, the 29-year-old surely regained a lot of the confidence he lost because of the near loss to Andrade as a result of the fine showing he put on against the Colombian. But will Bute fight a negative fight against Andrade on Saturday?
Knowing firsthand how relentless and strong his 31-year-old rival is, Bute will surprise nobody if he opts to box a smart fight, where he refuses to get involved in any close quarters warfare at all. Then again, Bute did outbox Andrade, 28-2(21) over the majority of rounds in fight-one, yet he still got tired and was dragged into survival mode in the 12th-round. The way he comes right at an opponent and makes him work hard every second of the way, Andrade will simply not allow Bute to dance his way to an easy points victory.
At some point – early on if Andrade has his way – the challenger will get to the champion and hurt him. What will happen and how will Bute react when this happens? Will he run or will he stand and fight? If he chooses the latter, he will give Andrade his best chance of winning. And if Bute runs, will the judges award him the points he needs so as to keep his belt?
I see Andrade getting to Bute by the halfway stage of the fight and hitting and hurting him enough to discourage the champion, and making him have flashbacks of that awful 12th-round in the first fight. Hurt like never before in his career, Bute knows he was “gone,” and that he was very lucky not to have been KO’d.
This time, though Andrade will once again be behind on points at the time, Bute will get stopped. I go for Andrade by 9th or 10th-round TKO.