Geoffrey Ciani – When the participants for the Super Six super middleweight tournament were first announced one name stood out amongst the rest—Mikkel Kessler. Of all the pugilists involved, Kessler was the one who was widely recognized as the favorite going into the tournament and rightfully so. After all, the reigning two time champion has good skills, tremendous power, and ample experience in big fight situations. Prior to the start of the first round match-ups, Kessler was perceived as the most consistent and talented of the six. Arthur Abraham was moving up in weight, Jermain Taylor was damaged goods, Carl Froch was one dimensional, and the two Andres from the United States were “too green”. This made Kessler the favorite by process of elimination.
Despite his experience, skills, and talent, Mikkel Kessler is not unbeatable. This was already proven when he was soundly defeated by Joe Calzaghe. Despite being seven years younger, Kessler was outworked, outhustled, and outsmarted by his older foe. After four competitive rounds it was all Calzaghe. Kessler was befuddled by his high work rate and his unique blend of tactics and angles. Of course, there is no shame in losing to a fighter of Calzaghe’s caliber. At the same time, when a fighter’s standing is elevated following a loss, as was the case when Kessler lost to Calzaghe, it gives reason for suspicion. Kessler has exhibited vulnerabilities in the past so it should come as no surprise when they are once again put on display..
In addition to showing weaknesses in t he past, Kessler has also suffered some nagging injuries in recent years. Since losing to Calzaghe nearly two years ago, Kessler has fought just two times in 2008 and only once in 2009 almost a full year after his previous contest. When he steps into the ring against Andre Ward Saturday night it will be the first time he squares off against elite opposition since his loss to Calzaghe. Ward had twice as many fights in that time during his steady progression in the professional ranks. Ward will also be afforded home field advantage when he meets Kessler. It is interesting to note that both first round winners, Abraham and Froch, had home field advantage as well. At the same time, Kessler has fought almost all of his fights in his homeland of Denmark and has never before fought in the United States.
Andre Ward has a celebrated amateur background that culminated in a Gold Medal at the 2004 Summer Olympics. He has not lost a fight since he was fourteen years old. In addition to having great speed, nice footwork, good punching technique, amazing athleticism, and proven durability, he has also exhibited nice versatility and adaptability. He can switch from orthodox to southpaw in the blink of an eye, and he remains effective from both stances. He is an intelligent fighter with a proven ability to make adjustments. He is also a very confident young fighter who will not be overwhelmed by the magnitude of the event. Ward is a proven winner who is not accustomed to losing. He has the mindset of a champion and is determined to leave the ring with Kessler’s WBA strap in his possession.
Personally, I think Kessler is a bit overrated in terms of skills. I also believe Andre Ward has the potential to be something special. Mentally and physically, he has all the makings of a future star. I believe that Ward, being the slicker and more fluid of the two, will be able to box his way to victory. Kessler has nice power and good experience, but I think Ward is a more versatile fighter who will be able to exploit the basic one-two that Kessler is so reliant on. Although Ward and Calzaghe have vastly different fighting styles, Ward’s superior athleticism and ring intelligence should enable him to confuse Kessler much in the same way Calzaghe did. If Ward stays alert and avoids Kessler’s big right he should be able to disrupt his rhythm and frustrate him. A lot of people are expecting Kessler to beat Ward and they are in for big surprise.
My Prediction: Andre Ward by unanimous decision
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In case you missed it, be sure to listen to the exclusive interview with Andre Ward in episode 48 of “On t he Ropes”.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/on-the-ropes/2009/11/16/on-the-ropes-episode-48-guest-andre-ward
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