By Errol Hyppolite – In this week’s edition of the Standing 8, I am breaking down the June 16th147-Pound Welterweight showdown between Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey.
Strength / Power – Cotto should hold an edge in the punching power department. Clottey’s advantages will be in strength. Clottey naturally walks around at 160lbs and tends to wear down his opponents over the course of a fight. Cotto is naturally smaller then Clottey but can much more easily concuss an opponent.
With that said, the power of each man will greatly depend on the way the fight breaks down. If Cotto keep’s this fight at a distance he will be able to catch Clottey with well-leveraged and clean counter shots.. In order for Clottey’s superior strength to be a factor in the fight he needs to make this an inside fight and unload hooks to the body and head of Cotto.
Advantage: Cotto (Slightly)
Speed
Neither Cotto nor Clottey are what I would call extremely quick-handed punchers. Both fighters have great but not exceptional speed. Clottey speed advantage is in counterpunching, and in his left hook. In Cotto’s most recent fights the speed and fluidity of his combination punches have greatly improved. In short, Clottey is quicker defensively while Cotto is faster offensively. Depending on how the fight is fought will determine who has an edge in speed. With that said, the hand speed differences between the fighters are so slight that I don’t expect it to be a factor in the fight.
Advantage: Even (greatly depends on how the fight is fought)
Stamina / Conditioning
I am giving the stamina & conditioning advantage to Joshua Clottey. Clottey is generally in terrific shape and has gone the distance 17 times compared to only 7 times for Cotto. This gives Clottey a huge edge in having the instincts to take the fight into deep waters in the late rounds. Cotto has faded slightly in the later rounds of fights if he doesn’t get his man out of there early. I don’t expect stamina to be a huge problem for Cotto this fight because I believe he is supremely motivated to moving to move forward with his successful career. Another thing going against Cotto’s stamina will be the unknown effect of his brutal loss to Antonio Margarcheato. Will his body have any long lasting effects from the loss?
Advantage: Joshua Clottey
Trainers / Management
Miguel’s recent dispersal of Evangelista Cotto is a concern. Cotto has promoted his assistant trainer, Joe Santiago to head trainer. Joe has never been a head trainer one can only hope that he’s able to effectively replace Evangelista’s ring knowledge. The two have only had a few months at most to properly strategize their game plan.
Clottey’s trainer Kwame Asante has been in his corner for quite some time and they have an excellent relationship. He’s also has head trainer experience with Ike Quartey and Ben Tackie. Given Cotto’s most recent management shakeup, it’s clear Clottey has a strong edge here.
Advantage: Clottey
Defense / Boxing Ability
In the all important defense category, Clottey holds a clear edge over Cotto. Clottey’s arm-forward, shoulder-tucked defense makes him a very hard target to hit. Clottey’s defensive ability is the exact reason he is so avoided in the sport. Cotto is certainly no slouch defensively but part of what makes him an exciting fighter is the fact that he is hittable and gets into exciting exchanges.
Cotto has been steadily improving defensively but he will never be as hard to hit as Clottey. Cotto’s best defense is his exciting offense.
Advantage: Clottey
Environment / Crowd / Referee
On the eve of the Puerto Rican day parade the crowd at Madison Square Garden will be highly in Cotto’s favor. Cotto has a huge following in New York and I fully expect that every time Cotto lands a punch the crowd to erupt in cheers.
If this fight goes the distance, which I think it will, there is absolutely no chance for Clottey to get a fair decision. The judges will be in a room full of Puerto Rican fans that anxiously want Cotto to win. If Clottey were to possibly get a decision the judges would probably have a hard time getting out of MSG in one piece!
Chin / Durability
In terms of chin and durability, Clottey is clearly superior to Cotto. Clottey is a tough as nails and supremely confident in his abilities. I have never seen Clottey even remotely hurt or stunned in any of his previous fights.
I believe Cotto has a solid chin. The only times he has been in serious trouble were at Junior Welterweight and in his bout with the plaster fisted Margarcheato. Since he has gone up to Welterweight Cotto’s chin has served him much better.
Advantage: Clottey
Most Recent Fights Performance / Level of Opposition:
Cotto looked brilliant in his last fight but it was against the completely overmatched Michael Jennings. One has to go back to prior performances to really get a better picture of Cotto’s abilities. Cotto’s last 5 opponents since Jennings have been Antonio Margarcheato, Alfonzo Gomes, Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Oktay Urkal. After rewatching the Cotto/Margarito fight numerous times, it is clear to me that Antonio won the fight by using his Plaster of Paris wraps. In lieu of the verdict of the California State Athletic Commission finding Margarito guilty of using such illegal wraps, I will not critique Cotto’s performance in that fight. Cotto very clearly dominated Gomes via 5th round TKO. Cotto’s fight with Shane revealed Cotto’s boxing ability and his under rated hand-speed. In the middle of the ring, Cotto was actually outboxing Shane. After the 8 rounds Shane began putting more pressure on Cotto only to be countered with clean punches. Shane hits harder than Clottey and Cotto was able to weather Mosley’s pressure and his best shots. Cotto also effectively dominated Judah via 11th
Clottey’s last 5 opponents have been against Zab Judah, Jose Cruz, Shamone Alverez, Felix Flores, and Corrales. Cruz, Alverez, and Flores are B level opponents that Clottey didn’t have much trouble with. Clottey fought Margarito before the handwrap controversy and lost a unanimous decision. Clottey broke hand in the fourth and simply stopped punching. Margarito then just outworked Clottey to win the fight. Clottey dominated Corrales but Diego was never the same after his two fights with Castillo. In the Judah fight, Clottey slowly and methodically broke down Judah by constantly putting pressure on Judah and effectively countering. One thing to note is that Judah wasn’t dominated as easy as he was by Cotto. Judah’s movements and hand speed did frustrate Clottey enough to cost him 3-4 rounds. If Cotto can employ good footwork he will probably be able to frustrate Clottey for some time.
In my analysis, Cotto has fought the better competition in his most recent fights. I believe Clottey’s style of fighting isn’t anything that Cotto hasn’t experienced before.
Advantage: Cotto
Prediction
Cotto by decision. Clottey is a very game opponent but generally he doesn’t come on strong until the later end of the fight. Cotto will look to put the early rounds in the bank and even if he doesn’t land many punches the cheering of the crowd will undoubtedly influence the judges scorecard. Given the atmosphere, Clottey’s only chance to win this fight is via knockout. He’ll have to apply pressure for twelve round straight and hope Cotto tires. This is certainly a very good possibility but given Clottey’s past performances I don’t expect him to start heating up until the 6th round. Cotto should fight well enough early on and with the energy of the crown he should have enough stamina to keep Clottey at bay until the 12th round.
Questions, Comments, Concerns, feel free to email me at errol_hyppolite@hotmail.com