29.12.06 – By Evan Young, Boxingforecast.com: The welterweight division is beginning to shake out nicely as some important questions have already been answered in 2006 but many questions remain.
TOP WELTERS NARROWED DOWN
Floyd Mayweather out sped the “real” welterweight champion Carlos Baldomir and although many felt it was a wipe out I thought Baldomir made Floyd very uncomfortable and forced Floyd to make it a track meet. In my view “Tata” won 3 or 4 rounds. New arrival Miguel Cotto looked sensational in running down highly regarded fellow countryman Carlos Quintana in his 6th round stoppage. Antonio Margarito looked rusty and mortal in a hard fought contest against teak tough Joshua Clottey.. But even in a less than stellar effort, Margarito showed he’s still extremely tough, is in great shape and will continue to punch and move forward for an entire fight. Kermit Cintron seems to have redeemed himself with 2 wins against solid welters in David Estrada and Mark Suarez, respectively.
BIG FIGHTS IN 2007
It looks like more welterweight questions will be answered in 2007. Kermit Cintron will defend his IBF belt against still dangerous Sugar Shane Mosley in February. Margarito is slated to meet young contender Paul Williams and may meet Miguel Cotto if he get’s by the “Punisher.” Cotto gets a breather in Oktay Urkal before his proposed showdown with the “Tijuana Tornado,” which is slated for June. Welterweight champ Floyd Mayweather finally gets his mega showdown with the Golden Boy, Oscar De la hoya in May. But that fight will be at 154 and there is no guarantee that Mayweather will want to throw himself into the mix of these young tigers after getting his dream bout with De la hoya.
WHAT ABOUT THESE GUYS
At this point talented but mercurial Zab Judah has nothing scheduled. He gave Mayweather a good tussle for 4 rounds but seemed to lose it mentally and faded badly down the stretch. In horse racing jargon you might consider Judah a sprinter and not a closer. He tends to wear down late in all his fights. I’m not sure he can shore up his stamina problems. You are what you are. Judah may be the best 4-6 round welterweight in the world. That all said, he’s still a top contender and I want to see him in the ring.
Slick southpaw Luis Collazo is looking for a fight. Apparently his proposed go with Shane Mosley fell out and now he plays the waiting game. He may be too slick for his own good as top guys may not want to take a chance with him unless they have to. Collazo is young and I feel certain he’ll fight as often as he can and it will pay off with a big fight. I thought he got jobbed in my home state, Massachusetts, against Ricky Hatton at the new Boston Gahhden.
WHO IS THE YOUNG BLOOD IN THE DIVISION
Andre Berto- He looked like a strong prospect in dismantling capable Miguel Figueroa on an HBO B.A.D. card in December. He’s quick, strong and can punch. I like Berto a lot. I expect him to take the smart road into contention. He’ll gradually step up the competition and continue to make progress. He’ll be ready for the elite in late 2008. He’s only 23. There’s no rush.
Hector David Saldivia- he’s unknown in the states but is making a bit of noise in his native Argentina. He’s only 22 with a 20-0 record. He stopped the durable and crafty Omar Weiss in his last fight. That’s not an easy task. He has a long road ahead but you’ll see him in the next couple of years.
Julio Garcia- This Mexican phenom is only 19 years old and has had a staggering 42 fights. He’s 40-2 with 34 whacks. He brings an exciting bruising style to the ring. His level of seasoning at this age is amazing. He has a terrific future and has had some television exposure. Look out for this guy.
WHAT HAPPENS IN 2007?
Shane Mosley vs. Kermit Cintron
Mosley stops Cintron in a tough fight. Mosley is a very strong welter with good speed and tough chin. Mosley is too seasoned for Cintron. He’s still near his physical prime, even at 35 years old. He wins war of attrition with late rounds stoppage.
Miguel Cotto vs Oktay Urkal
Cotto slaps Urkal around in easy defense. He doesn’t slip up here.
Antonio Margarito vs. Paul Williams
This is almost like two bookends fighting in that they are both tall and throw lots of punches. But I believe Margarito is simply too tough, too strong and has too much fortitude for the Punisher Paul Williams. Margarita breaks him down late in a sensational war of attrition.
Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito
I think Cotto may have found his weight class and I believe Margartio has had difficulty, as of late, in making 147. Cotto is a strong bruising fighter with very good speed. Both fighters come forward effectively but Cotto has a significant speed advantage and his short compact punches will land with startling regularity. Margarito will fight valiantly in defeat but the combination of being weight drained and Cotto’s single minded focus will be too much for the Tijuana Tornado.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Oscar De la hoya
It’s not a welterweight fight but Floyd is the current welterweight champ so I think it’s worthy of mention. Floyd will be shocked by De la hoya’s own speed. Floyd is a quick and extremely crafty practitioner but he is not a big puncher and I don’t think he’s the most physically strong fighter. I thought the slow Baldomir troubled Floyd with his pressure and strength. Oscar has much more power and speed than Baldomir. Floyd was forced to move and throw one punch at a time against Baldomir and it will be the same with De la hoya but Oscar will be able land his punches with authority and really force Mayweather into sprint mode. Oscar wins by decision and if Mayweather fights with him, Pretty Boy will be stopped.
CONCLUSION
Win or lose against De la Hoya, I don’t think Mayweather will fight Cotto, Margarito, Clottey, Collazo or Mosley. Floyd is so afraid of his blowing his own “image” as the greatest fighter to ever grace this earth that he’s only willing to risk a loss against the type of payday De la hoya brings. And Mayweather’s mitts aren’t the best and it wouldn’t be surprising if this is his last fight, especially if he wins. He’d love to go out on top with a career high payday that will ensure his several generations of descendents a life of luxury.
Cotto with emerge, in my view, as world’s best welterweight after he beats Margarito. I’d like to see him in title defenses against tough fighters like Collazo, Mosley, Clottey, Judah and if successful eventually against some of the aforementioned prospects such as Andre Berto et al. In a great fantasy fight that will never happen, at 147, right now, I’d pick Cotto to KO Mayweather.