Thoughts on Mosley-Wright/ Mesi-Jirov

02.02.04 – By Tom Donelson: Shane Mosley and Winky Wright face each other to see who is the best at 154 pounds. This is an intriguing match up for various reasons. First of all, there are questions about Shane Mosley.

First thing that needs to be dealt with is that Mosley was given a gift in his last fight when the judges awarded him with the decision over De La Hoya. Throughout the first eight rounds, Mosley rarely put combinations together and at the end of the fight, he was out punched by a nearly a two to one margin. That was something that did not happen at Lightweight or Welterweight with the exception of the two Vernon Forrest fight, in which he lost. Against De La Hoyas boxing strategy, Mosley looked confused and while he was able to mount a comeback in the last four rounds, Mosley did not demonstrate the hand speed we saw at 135 or 147 pounds. Before the two Forest fights, Mosley threw punches in bunches while showing both excellent boxing skills and power. Since the Forest debacles, he has rarely shown the fighting style that made him a great light and welterweight.

Mosley still has his power but without hand speed, he is suddenly vulnerable. Mosley that fights Winky Wright will be the favorite but a shaky favorite. As for Wright, who really knows? Lets face it, Wright has had one big fight, against an undefeated Vargas, which he lost in a controversial decision. Wright has been looking for another big fight to show that he is the real thing and so far no one has bitten. Until now.

Wright is an awkward fighter and his style will give Mosley trouble. In a fight of this nature, sometimes what is inside a fighter that will prove the be the difference. Wright is not afraid of Mosley but then this is first big fight that he has been involved since Vargas. If Wright freezes or shows caution in the beginning, Mosley will win easily. If Wright gains Mosley’s respect, then he will put himself in position to win. Remember Wright is the natural-154 pounder and it is Mosley, who has come up in weight.

The key rounds will be the first three rounds. If Wright frustrates Mosley early, then this will be a long fight for Mosley and the decision will be in doubt. If Mosley can regain the form that he showed in the ninth round of the De La Hoya fight, then Mosley wins going away. The early rounds tell the story. I favor Mosley, barely.

As for Jirov-Mesi, well this looks like a set up for Mesi. These are Mesi’s advantages:

He is the natural bigger man. Jirov is coming up in weight and he will be at a disadvantage.
Jirov may not yet recovered from the Toney fight and be a shell of himself. The final advantage for Mesi is that Jirov will be positioned in Mesi’s wheelhouse. Jirov will not show the same mobility as Barrett did in his last fight against Mesi.

Jirov also has his own advantages that need to be considered:

· Jirov operates at high capacity. Against Toney, Jirov averaged nearly 90 punches a round despite being nailed with some powerful counterpunches. Mesi has yet to see a heavyweight capable of such a workload. We are talking a fighter who can throw close to 90 punches per round. Heavyweights don’t punch at that level. Mesi’s conditioning will be challenged. If Jirov survives the early rounds, he will be the better-conditioned fighter in the later rounds.

· Jirov is a sound technician whose only lost was to Toney, one of this generation master counter punchers. He can land volume of punches to every part of the body and he does have sound defensive skills.

My own view is that Mesi will be too strong for Jirov but the key rounds, just as in the Wright-Mosley fight, will be the early rounds. During the Toney-Holyfield match up, Toney showed early that he could take a Holyfield heavyweight punch and his workload and superior counterpunching against the older Holyfield proved the difference. If Jirov can survive the early rounds, then his chances for victory improve.