Jaime Munguia has an opportunity to pull off an upset against the superstar Canelo Alvarez.
It’s believed Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) has been picked out by Canelo (60-2-2, 39 KOs) because he feels he’s a gimme, and he doesn’t need to worry about losing his four super middleweight titles against him on May 4th in their headliner at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Munguia’s Advantages
The 27-year-old Munguiao is seven years younger than Cnaelo and has better conditioning, reflexes, and, some believe, better punch resistance. Perhaps the main asset Munguia has over Canelo is an ability to throw many punches without tiring.
Canelo has never been able to throw in high volume due to his cardio limitations. He needs constant rest breaks after throwing shots, and like many older fighters, Canelo tends to take his breaks with his back against the ropes.
That habit was taken advantage of in Canelo’s loss to Dmitry Bivol in 2022. When Canelo rested against the ropes, Bivol lit into him with sustained combinations. Canelo was too tired to throw back, so he covered up and waited for Bivol to back off.
Munguia isn’t going to back off if he’s got Canelo against the ropes. He’s going to keep punching until he does something meaningful to make him back off or if the referee steps in and stops the fight. That’s a possibility. Canelo is an old 33, closer to 40 in my opinion
Munguia’s relentless punches could very well overwhelm Canelo if he is not able to hurt him with one of his counters.
Canelo’s Counterpunching Threat
Canelo’s experience fighting on the highest levels is important in this fight. He’s completed against better opposition than Munguia, who has been protected by his promoters and shielded from harm by being kept away from the top fighters in the three weight classes he’s completed in during his 11-year career.
Canelo’s counter-punching allows him to capitalize on the openings the ultra-aggressive Munguia will present. If Munguia uses his high-volume punching against Canelo, he’ll be open to the counter-punching and could be stopped.
Munguia still needs to be aggressive but not get reckless while doing so. If Munguia can choose the right moments to be aggressive, he’s got a chance of winning.