Top Rank promoter Bob Arum expects Canelo Alvarez to defeat Dmitry Bivol and Gennadiy Golovkin this year in his fights in May and September.
Arum believes WBA light heavyweight champion Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) lacks the power to beat Canelo, whereas 40-year-old Golovkin is too old.
The inactivity for Golovkin might be more of a problem than just his age because he’s been largely fighting once a year since 2019.
With that kind of inactivity, it’s prevented Golovkin from staying sharp, and Canelo could take advantage of that if the two fight in September.
Golovkin still needs to win his April 9th fight against Ryota Murata to punch his ticket for a fight with Canelo on September 17th.
Canelo (57-1-2, 39 KOs) could struggle against Bivol if he’s unable to knock him out. The shots that Canelo stopped Billy Joe Saunders, Avni Yildirim, and Caleb Plant with in 2021 probably won’t be there for him to land against Bivol because he moves a lot.
Saunders used to be an excellent mover earlier in his career, but after years of gaining a lot of weight in between fights, and canceling contests due to injuries, he lost the mobility that he had when he was younger.
Canelo took advantage of Saunders’ stationary style to stop him after fracturing his right eye socket with an uppercut.
Arum picks Canelo to beat Bivol & Golovkin
“I think he’s a good fighter, Bivol, I give him all the props in the world, but I think Canelo is really special,” said Bob Arum to Fight Hub TV. “I don’t think Bivol has the power to hurt Canelo. If you can’t hurt Canelo, I can’t see how he’s going to beat him.
Bivol probably doesn’t have the power to hurt Canelo, but he does have the boxing skills to beat him, as long as the judging crew doesn’t foul things up as they did with a handful of the Mexican star’s biggest fights of his career.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. couldn’t hurt Canelo, but he still beat him easily in 2013. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout weren’t huge punchers either, but they got the better of Canelo but lost controversial decisions.
It’s useful for a fighter to possess power, but not essential. Again, as long as the judges are quality on May 7th, Bivol will have a chance of winning a decision.
Murata can beat Golovkin says Arum
“I like Canelo huge against Golovkin, and I would not be surprised in April if [Ryota] Murata beats Golovkin,” said Arum.
“Remember, Golovkin has a lot of wear on him, he’s 40-years-old, I think approximately, and Murata is a pretty big punching guy. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Golovkin lost that fight to Murata.
Indeed, Arum thinks that the advanced age and the ring wear that IBF middleweight champion Golovkin (41-1-1, 36 KOs) could result in him losing his next fight against Top Rank promoted WBA champion Ryota Murata (16-2, 13 KOs) on April 9th.
Golovkin and Murata are meeting for a unification fight at 160 live on DAZN at the Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. Murata, 36, hasn’t fought in two and a half years since December 2019, and he’s largely lesser opposition during his nine-year professional career.
Even with the marginal opponents that Murata has been matched against as a pro, he’s still lost twice to Rob Brand and Hassan N’Dam. For Golovkin to lose to Murata, he’d have to be fighting an incredibly low level.
Beterbiev or Joe Smith options for Canelo
If Golovkin loses to Murata on April 9th, Canelo will need a new opponent to fight on September 17th. If Canelo is feeling brave, he can fight the winner of the Beterbiev vs. Joe Smith fight in September.
It’s more likely Canelo will choose to face WBC cruiserweight champion Ilunga Makabu or his WBA mandatory challenger John Ryder in September.
“I never discuss it with Canelo or Eddy Reynoso, and I’m friendly with both of them, but I never thought to discuss it at this particular point,” said Arum when asked if he spoke to Canelo about him fighting light heavyweight champions Artur Beterbiev or Joe Smith at 175.
“Maybe next year or the later part of this year if Golovkin gets himself beat, I’d be happy to discuss it. But again, you’d have to figure out how the signal for the fight is going to be distributed because to lock it up with DAZN that nobody watches any place in the world seems counterproductive,” said Arum.