By Stuart Cornwell: Forget all the hype and bluster, mind games and shenanigans, Saturday night’s world heavyweight championship will be decided in the ring on pure fighting merit. Both men appear to be in the best possible fighting shape, primed and honed to perfection. When the opening bell rings they will be ready to test their skills and powers against one another. And when it’s all over and the dust has settled, the hollow din of loser’s alibis and excuses notwithstanding, the better man will have won.
Here I run through what will be the deciding factors in this tussle for supremacy, and state which man I feel holds the advantages in the relevant areas.
Age : Klitschko is 35. In boxing terms he is getting on in years, most of the great heavyweights were all washed up or on a noticeable decline at that age, but Klitschko has remained in peak condition and seems to have retained and probably increased his desire to succeed. Importantly he has fought in a style that has minimized wear and tear on his body. He is younger than all of Haye’s last four heavyweight opponents were, in actual age by 1 – 4 years. In terms of career form he’s fresher by miles. So, while in theory he’s conceivably on the cusp of a decline, in practice it should have no bearing on this fight. He is likely to be in his prime condition, as good as he ever has been.
Haye is 30. He’s at his absolute peak physically, there is no doubt. Like Klitschko he has not been subjected to the gruelling wars of attrition that can often accelerate the aging process in professional boxers. He is fresh and primed. In the age department he holds a slight edge over Klitschko.
Experience : Both men have been boxing since they were boys, and were accomplished amateurs. As professionals Klitschko is by far the more experienced fighter, professional for almost 15 years, with 58 professional fights, he’s been a leading heavyweight contender or champion for at least 10 years, at least a dozen of his wins have come against genuine ’top 10’ type heavyweight contenders. His last ten fights have been regarded by most as for the legitimate world heavyweight championship.
By contrast, Haye has had only 26 fights in almost 9 years as a pro, has only had 5 ‘world title’ fights in total (including the 2 at cruiserweight), and has only fought 5 legitimate heavyweights in total. Of those 5 heavyweight opponents, only two had reasonable claims to being ‘top 10’ type contenders (Nicolay Valuev, the WBA title holder, and John Ruiz, the former WBA title holder – both somewhat on the old side). The others were blatant no-hopers (Tomasz Bonin and Audley Harrison) and an aging journeyman (Monte Barrett). A couple of the cruiserweights Haye fought were quite good but wouldn’t have made heavyweight contenders.
In terms of length and depth of experience against fighters of relevant quality, Klitschko is at a huge advantage over Haye.
Speed : For a man of his sheer bulk Klitschko has tremendous hand-speed. But Haye is lighter and his hands are even faster, bordering on the phenomenal. Klitschko makes the most of his hand-speed by delivering his punches straight as an arrow, textbook jabs and crosses, correct hooks. Haye tends to throw his punches in more of an arc, adding distance between his projectile fist and the target. Not wild, but often looping shots. Still, in terms of an advantage based purely on hand-speed, Klitschko concedes slightly to Haye. And if, at 35, his speed and reflexes are dulling even by the tiniest of increments, Haye’s hands should appear noticeably faster.
As for speed of foot, Klitschko is perhaps most underrated in this area and Haye probably overrated. Klitschko is light on his feet for a man of his size, and has had little trouble cornering smaller lighter fighters. Haye is probably capable of moving around at a fair trot but compared to his demonstrably fast hands, his foot speed and movement has looked distinctly ordinary thus far, especially for a cruiserweight-heavyweight. For argument’s sake, consider them equals in the ring running department.
Size and strength: Klitschko is 6’5 by his own estimation, and billed as over 6’6 in the tale-of-tape listing. He weighed in at 243 pounds. He is an incredible physical specimen, devoid of surplus fat and sculpted like a marble Hercules. He is a natural heavyweight by any standard, a Great Dane, a “super-heavyweight”. He hasn’t weighed in under 235 since he was 22 years old.
Haye is listed at 6’3 and surely is no taller. He appears to be at least 3 inches shorter than Klitschko, maybe more. He weighed in at 213 pounds. He too is a remarkable specimen and looked in even more sharply defined shape at the weigh-in than usual. If Klitschko is Hercules, Haye is at least Theseus. He is a legitimate heavyweight though perhaps not a natural-born one. He is built-up on a naturally slender frame. At age 23 he was still fighting around the 190 pound mark. As recently as 2008, he was still bringing himself down to 198 pounds.
Haye is big enough to make his mark on any man out there, and it would be foolish to underestimate his natural and acquired strength but in these departments Klitschko has a distinct and unmistakable advantage.
Skill and technique : Klitschko is often accused of being a boring fighter to watch. This is because he sticks rigidly to the basics – boxing behind a straight left jab, setting up the occasional right cross and left hook, and keeping the fight at his preferred range by tying up his opponents when they get too near. What is often overlooked is the fact that it is sheer skill that allows him to get away with such repetitive modus operandi. It takes constant judging of distances, superb timing and acute powers of anticipation. His punching technique is correct. His balance and footwork has become polished and precise in recent years. He’s economical, mechanical, methodical, robotic – and it is proving highly effective.
Haye has been described by some pundits as a contrast to Klitschko by virtue of being a “natural fighter”, a creature whose instinct is to fight and has added boxing skill to his natural propensity and physical talent. (As opposed to Klitschko’s “manufactured” boxing ability, a gifted athlete who forced himself to learn to fight.) It could all be mumbo-jumbo. Haye tends to rely on speed and power and applies it in counter attacks, striking his prey hard and fast when he sees an opening. When he has his man hurt he can be suitably ruthless, raining in follow-up punches, but also a bit wild and open. He is capable of slick defensive moves and has an instinct for ring generalship and manoeuvrings, but is inconsistent in these areas. It is hard to know what he can and cannot do against top-flight heavyweight opposition because he hasn’t fought much. What we do know is that he is proficient at delivering his punches and that those shots are serious business.
In skill and technique, Klitschko is the better man.
Punching power : Both these guys can bang. Klitschko is the more extensively proven puncher with numerous devastating knockouts over tested durable heavyweights. Haye has demonstrated his power well enough against cruisers and heavies and is a bona fide heavyweight power puncher . There is little point arguing over who hits harder. They both hit monstrously hard.
Punch resistance : Both these guys have reputations for vulnerability in this area. Klitschko has been stopped three times before – though not in the last seven years. Haye was stopped just less than seven years ago, at cruiserweight, in his 11th pro fight. Both have had to climb off the canvas to win fights. I give Klitschko the edge in this department though, because he has faced numerous big punching heavyweights and not all of them have troubled him with their punches. An examination of Haye’s record shows he has had a disturbing lack of fights against hard punchers of heavyweight pedigree, or even many devastating cruiserweights. When Audley Harrison or Enzo Maccarenelli may be the hardest puncher faced, heavyweight punch resistance should be in severe doubt.
Stamina : Klitschko for a long time suffered from suspect stamina. Losses in 1998 to Ross Purrity in the 11th round of his first fight to go past the 8th, and to Lamon Brewster in 2004 when he looked alarmingly exhausted while being stopped in the 5th, have been eclipsed now by several competent performances in between and since which have lasted 9, 10, 11 and the distance – fights in which Klitschko has looked relaxed and confident in the latter stages and capable of upping the pace and scoring later-round stoppages. His stamina is more than sufficient.
Haye’s only been 12 rounds twice. He has only had to go beyond the 5th round on six occasions. His physical conditioning is undoubtedly superb but how he would hold up under any sort of serious pressure in a demanding and lengthy heavyweight fight is still open to question.
Klitschko has the advantage in stamina.
Styles and strategy: Klitschko’s style and strategy is likely to be the same as always. He will attempt to keep Haye on the end of his powerful left jab, see what damage he can do with it and proceed to soften Haye up and set him up for the follow-up right hand and the left hook. He will grab and lean on Haye to sap his strength and take advantage of any lapses in Haye’s defense and stance by scoring heavily with that jab. He’ll be out to shut down Haye’s offensive ambitions by establishing the jab as early as possible – as long as he gets Haye on the end of it and keeps him there he’ll be able to dominate or finish the fight, as long as he doesn’t get careless and hits regularly enough to stamp his authority.
Haye strategy therefore needs to entail negating Klitschko’s jab from the outset. Haye is a quick puncher who looks to inflict devastating damage with counter punches, so he will likely be aiming to land his own crushing right hand over the top of Klitschko’s jab, to intimidate Klitschko into not throwing it. The question is whether Haye will back off to try to lure Klitschko to come forward, or whether he will take some initial risks himself in making his mark early, and in making sure Klitschko fails to find his rhythm. That question is Haye’s dilemma. If he plays it too safe he might miss his chance and be broken down on the outside by Klitschko’s deceptive encroaching jab. If he goes out to make an early mark he might well walk straight into something nasty.
What Haye has going for him in this fight is the hand-speed and power to actually upset Klitschko’s momentum and conceivably end the fight at any time. Not since 2003 has Klitschko faced a genuine KO puncher with comparable speed of delivery – and that was Corrie Sanders, who won by 2nd round TKO. Yet Klitschko has improved since then and the advantages he holds over Haye in this fight are immense.
What will be the outcome ? My prediction :
David Haye has a ‘puncher’s chance’ and not just a token one or theoretical one. He poses an actual serious threat to Wladimir Klitschko every second he remains in the fight, by virtue of his speed of punch and the power he delivers behind it.
However, I expect Klitschko to win this fight – and win it big. It won’t be easy but I wouldn’t be surprised if Klitschko makes it look easy. Klitschko has the luxury of holding the same ‘puncher’s chance’ that Haye holds, and more so because of Haye’s weaker chin, I suspect. On top of this, Klitschko holds several other advantages and chances of victory over Haye also. Klitschko is the better boxer, the more seasoned fighter, the bigger man, the stronger man. Haye has demonstrated a phenomenal talent for self-promotion and ballyhoo but it all has to end tonight. I fully expect Klitschko to win this fight inside the distance, possibly breaking down an increasingly timid Haye with the jab in about seven rounds, IF Haye’s chin holds up that long. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Haye go out even earlier, perhaps as early as the second round. This could be painfully one-sided, this could turn out to be a ‘mismatch’. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.