03.10.08 – By Erik “Stuck In A Moment” Schaffer – Here we go with our second installment of The Handicappers Thread as on October 11 Chad Dawson will challenge Antonio Tarver for Tarver’s IBF light heavyweight title in the Palms Casino of Las Vegas, Nevada. If the fight were today Chad Dawson would step into the ring as a -250 favorite to beat Tarver. First lets talk about that line. Didn’t Dawson look terrible in his close win over Glen Johnson in his last fight?
Didn’t Tarver just beat Clinton Woods who was on a winning streak, which included a win over Johnson? Why is Dawson such a big favorite? Clearly people cant understand why Dawson is such a big favorite on this site. Just take a look at the fantasy boxing forum. Well I since a trap here that Vegas is setting and I wont be stepping in it.
Chad Dawson is a young raising star in boxing. And Vegas must agree with me by posting him at -250 for this fight after looking so bad against Johnson. I truly feel that Johnson has a style that will always bother Dawson and that’s why they had a close fight. Tarver is a different story and also a shell of himself. Yes Tarver beat a hot Clinton Woods, but Woods clearly was not himself that night. Yes it did have something to do with Tarver, but Woods is the type of fighter who always tries and throws punches. He did neither in the Tarver fight. Both Tarver and Dawson will see different styles against each other than what they saw in their last fights. Tarver will get a young, fast and hungry Dawson who is very skilled with underrated power and an underrated chin to go with it. Dawson will be able to pick Tarver apart in this fight with fast combinations. Dawson will not follow Tarver around the ring like a human punching bag the way Clinton Woods did. As for Dawson he will see a slower, older and less skilled fighter then what he saw in his last fight vs. Johnson and he will also see a low work rate from his opponent. This time around you wont see Dawson taking any big shots and you wont see him slowing down either. He will control this entire fight. The last thing Tarver wants to see is a heavy work rate and Dawson will give it to him.
I really feel this is a situation where Vegas loves a fighter to win coming off a bad performance. If Dawson would of looked good in his win vs. Johnson, he would be around a 4-1 favorite in this fight. Instead we get to take Dawson at -250 because he is coming off a bad style match up. To most people the line is still high, but I see it as a steal. Dawson by wide UD.
The First Handicappers Thread was a prediction on Juan Guzman to beat Nate Campbell. Our record is 0-0.