07.02.07 – By Neil Thompson: On Saturday, 10th February 2007, we’ll see a Sugar Shane Mosley taking on Luis Collazo for the WBC welterweight Interim title at the Mandalay Bay Resort, Las Vegas. Mosley has had a great career and is still competing at the top. Whereas Collazo is a relative young newcomer to this level of competition. Below I have written a preview for the big-fight with my prediction of the outcome.
Analysis:
Sugar Shane Mosley, 43-4 (37 KO’s), has been a great fighter over the years. Undefeated Lightweight Champion of the World, a Welterweight World Champion and a brief period as World Light Middleweight Champion. Over the last few years though, Mosley has been on a gradual decline. He’s still fast, still smart, still has a chin and will still have a bit of power at the weight, but he no-longer has the work-rate and these days he’s much easier to hit. His two defeats to Vernon Forrest and his two losing efforts against Winky Wright support this opinion. Also, he was very lucky to get the decision over Oscar De La Hoya in their rematch. De La Hoya clearly won the return by at least a few rounds yet was robbed by some terrible judging. With all this in mind it’s easy to notice that Mosley is not the force he once was. In his prime, Sugar Shane Mosley was considered one of the top 2 ’pound-4-pound’ fighters in the world.. These days he is just a very good fighter, good enough to beat the likes of the over-rated and ‘past his best‘ Fernando Vargas, but not good enough to be considered amongst the pound-4-pound elite. So does Mosley still have what it takes to beat a young, talented and world class contender like former WBA Welterweight Champion Luis Collazo?
On 17th June 2000, Shane looked sensational in beating Oscar De La Hoya with speed; sharpness and a fantastic work-rate which made him look almost unbeatable. However, almost 2 years later Mosley lost twice to Vernon Forrest and decided to move up in weight. In September 2003 he had his infamous rematch with De La Hoya at light middleweight. In all fairness De La Hoya won the fight against a man that looked a shadow of the fighter who beat him 3 years earlier. Even-though Oscar was the clear winner Mosley was awarded the decision in what was a blatant robbery. Since then Mosley has dropped two decisions to Winky Wright and has only won 5 of his last 10 fights, not the form of an ‘elite’ fighter that some believe he still is.
Luis Collazo, 27-2 (13 KO’s), is a southpaw with skills, adaptability, supreme fitness and an impressive work ethic. Collazo is a ‘gym-rat’ and is always in training, he doesn’t drink, he doesn’t pile on weight in-between fights and he can be considered a model professional in and out of the ring.
Collazo got his first shot at the big-time against Jose Antonio Rivera, the WBA Welterweight champion of that time. Collazo came in at only two weeks notice to take a split decision victory. Its worth mentioning that Rivera’s next fight after this defeat to Collazo was against the then WBA 154lb World Champion Alejando Garcia, a fight Rivera won by a wide UD to claim Garcia’s title. This makes Collazo’s win all the more impressive. After upsetting Rivera, Collazo defended his title with an 8th round stoppage over Miguel Angel Gonzales. His next defense would see him mix it with one of the pound 4 pound elite, the universally recognized Junior Welterweight champion of the world, Ricky ‘The Hitman’ Hatton. For 12 rounds Collazo battled the aggressive Englishman and matched Hatton all the way. Despite suffering a first round knockdown, Collazo fought back and almost stopped the contest in the last round hurting Hatton several times. Despite Collazo’s heroic effort he lost a razor-thin decision which many people still contest. Eventhough he lost his WBA 147 lb title, Collazo gained a lot of respect in this defeat and above all else he proved one thing ……… don’t under-estimate Luis Collazo. It is surprising to me then, that people are doing just this. Luis Collazo should not be a 5-1 underdog, but some people never learn I guess.
Its is a rare thing for the Las Vegas bookmakers to get a fight wrong but I suspect they are wrong here. I believe they have based their odds on Mosley’s reputation and not his ability at 35 years of age. The Vegas bookies, aswell as the boxing community, are underestimating Luis Collazo just like Hatton and Rivera did.
The Prediction:
The fight will start slowly with the opening two rounds being tentative with both fighters feeling the other out. Mosley edges the first couple of rounds but Collazo turns up the pace behind his southpaw right jab and starts to out work the older Mosley. Sugar Shane tries to stay with him but the longer the fight goes the more Mosley falls behind. Mosley, no longer able to work at a pace like he used too, now starts trying to turn the fight in his favour by forcing the action and being more aggressive. However, he cannot keep it up and although he claws some of the rounds back, Collazo reasserts his control and starts to pull away again. The later rounds will see a tired Mosley struggling and by the sound of the final bell Collazo will be a clear winner. I think it will be competitive fight and reasonably close but Collazo wins by a UD.
Result: Luis Collazo beats Shane Mosley by unanimous decision.
If Mosley does win then he’ll do it by turning in the sort of performance that I don’t believe he’s capable of anymore. However, I feel Mosley hasn’t got the work-rate these days to do it. Shane is ten years older than Collazo at 35 years of age. He’s not fighting a ring-worn, one-dimensional, Fernando Vargas here, he’s fighting a talented, fresh, young and adaptable southpaw. I believe Collazo’s work-rate, his hunger and his southpaw stance will cause Mosley all sorts of problems. Mosley is a 5-1 betting favourite which is far too generous to this older version of Sugar Shane. People forget what Vernon Forrest did to Mosley on two separate occasions. They forget the boxing lesson Winky Wright gave him over 24 rounds and that Mosley is 35 with only 5 wins out of his last 10 fights. Collazo is at the peak of this powers and a fighter that can fight for almost every minute of every round. This work ethic of Collazo is his key to victory.
America needs a new star in boxing, Luis Collazo could be just that. He’s media friendly, polite, softly spoken and he can fight. He can box, he can brawl and he has heart. Mosley on the other hand has been a great champion and a great ambassador for the sport, but at 35 he is old and past his best. Its unhealthy for this sport to keep looking to the fading stars of yesterday to supply all the drama and excitement that boxing can produce. I feel a Collazo victory will be good for the sport in America. America needs to find its next generation of stars to carry the sport forward …… Luis Collazo could fit nicely into that category and a victory over Mosley could go along way to making Collazo is star.
Thank you for reading
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