Every generation in the sport seems to bless fans and media with a rare talent that embodies the innate ability to put cheeks-in-seats with an almost effortless element of star power. For some of those talents, the attraction to be witnessed is more ‘power’ than ‘star’. Tonight, that source sits center stage, showcasing the very power that made him a star. The Kazakhstan born native is a talent with the clarity of “HD”, has a punch that jumps at you like 3-D, and rather than his first and last name, he’s simply known to the world as 3 “G”. The man in the opposite corner tonight has a legacy outside of the ring that rivals anything either has accomplished inside of it. As these two forces prepare to collide, we take one final look at Keys to Victory, Four to Explore, and an Official Prediction:
KEYS TO VICTORY (GENNADY G. GOLOVKIN)
For GGG, Keys to Victory are vastly different from what he typically needs. Throughout his career thus far, most of his opposition has been smaller, with somewhat limited technical ability and power. Tonight, that all changes. In Jacobs, Golovkin will be faced with a talent that’s faster, longer, and equally powerful. How does he nullify that? Jab, pressure, power. In that order. Golovkin will need to set the tone with the steady jab he showed us against Lemieux. Behind that jab, he’ll need to use the same intelligent pressure that we’ve seen him use to cut off the ring against so many others. Once the ring is cut off, he’ll need to unleash his power and methodically break Jacobs down. If Golovkin can start with patience and execute this gameplan, there’s no reason to believe he can’t pull the curtains by Round 6.
KEYS TO VICTORY (DANNY JACOBS)
For Jacobs, the Keys to Victory all start and end with intelligence and patience. Lemeiux was a very good puncher, but he lacked the skillset. Jacobs has the skillset, but his power could be both a curse and a blessing. If he’s able to land it early and often, it will be a blessing. But trying to employ it recklessly against a thunderous one-stop-drop puncher like Golovkin is a true curse. Jacobs will need to use movement and counterpunching from the onset. His best strategy would involve making Golovkin miss and making him pay from the very beginning. If Jacobs can use footwork to avoid the wrath early and land enough to earn some respect from Golovkin through the mid-fight point, he absolutely has the skills to take over late when Golovkin isn’t as fresh and either win on points or stun the Champ.
FOUR TO EXPLORE (CRITICAL GAME CHANGERS TO WATCH)
LIGHTS ON, LIGHTS OFF: Everyone can play Checkers, but only the masters play Chess! Just like in real life, going to combat inside the ring once the bell sounds requires great intelligence. When we measure the ring intelligence of these two men, the visuals show us one thing, the reality presents another. Typically, a vintage ‘stalk-til-they-cant-walk’ type fighter brings a very low skillset; however, with Golovkin, a higher than average ring IQ creates more paths to victory than most are prepared to handle. Can Jacobs out-think the former Olympic Silver Medalist under the gun? One thing for sure, if his “lights” aren’t on, there’s no way to avoid having his “lights” put out!
7th HEAVEN: Typically, Golovkin is an aggressive starter. As a result, most of his opponents struggle within the first 4 rounds of the fight. What’s intriguing about this bout is the fact that we’ve also seen him start a bit slower when the return-fire of his opponent is viewed to be just as thunderous as his. How does this reconcile against a bigger man who fits that tab? Does Golovkin start slow and force himself to press late? Does he come out with a nervous energy that takes him a bit too fast and have very little left late? We won’t know until the bell rings, but if his best isn’t good enough through the midway point, the smart money says we could be in for a shocker. Pay close attention to Golovkin’s stamina if this bout goes into the 8th or beyond.
CATCH AND SHOOT: Most pundits put their emphasis on Golovkin’s pressure and power. Few seem to break down the exchanges that deliver that power, and the speed in which the punches flow. Jacobs isn’t viewed as a sharp counterpuncher, but his counter-punching timing is impeccable, and this could present issues for the slower Golovkin. Take a look at the 1st Jacobs/Mora fight around the 1:24 mark in the 1st round. Mora (slightly faster than Golovkin) attempted to throw a combination. Jacobs used his mitts to pick the first shot off, and before Mora could throw the next one, he was clipped and decked. The looping punches of Golovkin provide more than enough room for Jacobs to catch him with something cold. Pay close attention to these exchanges. If Jacobs hurts GGG, it’ll be from a counterpunching exchange.
SIZE MATTER?: With a resume full of guys like Stevens, Brook, and others, some have taken exception to the fact that for the first time, Golovkin was actually forced to look up to his opponent at the recent weigh-in. If the slight height advantage isn’t a big deal, what about the near 4 inch reach advantage the faster Jacobs will enjoy come fight night? Tyson taught us when a menacing puncher who knows how to gauge his range throws hands, the term “reach” is most commonly used for the referee trying to assist the fallen fighter who’s been put down. Can Jacobs apply the skillset necessary to win with these advantages? Or will he simply be the latest victim?
OFFICIAL PREDICATION/UPSET BAROMETER (RATING 1-5)
Tonight’s showdown is one most of us have waited to see for quite some time. Golovkin’s resume has lacked the big name opponent that all true greats must have to be recognized as such. This time around he’ll have his target, and if history is any indicator, that motivation alone could make this a very simple night. The great ones traditionally rise to the occasion. Considering the stage, it’s hard not to see Golovkin finding a way to break the Brooklynite down. The key to this entire fight will come down to how well Jacobs asserts himself early. If Jacobs can land the type of shots that stop Golovkin from pressing and keep him on his backfoot early, things could get interesting. Conventional logic says don’t count on it.
GGG TKO 6
(Upset Barometer: Peaks at 5 of 5. For those who want to drop a few duckets in the bucket, this is the fight to do so. A very favorable bet would be Jacobs on points. Another option to play that could lead to big coins is a late Jacobs stoppage victory. If this bout goes past 8, Jacobs will have figured out a way to avoid the wrath, and there won’t be much left in Golovkin’s tank. All bets are off past 8! Jacobs is a pure favor to win if this bout goes anywhere near 10).
(Vivek “Vito” Wallace can be reached at 754.307.7747. He can also be seen every week here on Boxing247, as well as Facebook, IG, and Twitter).