By PADRE – Who needs Mayweather and Pacman, when the boxing fans have been spoiled as of late, with various intriguing matchups. Another blockbuster one is coming up this Saturday when Sergio Martinez takes on Julio Chavez Jr. I will cut to the chase and spare you all the scenarios and say that I pick Sergio Martinez to beat Junior decisively. Sergio is a better boxer with great foot work , power and a fighters IQ that outclasses Junior. I honestly think we may be seeing a repeat of Pacman vs Margarito. I just hope that this time someone in Junior’s corner has the sense and decency to stop the onslaught and remember that he still has a future in boxing, if he doesn’t take a battering. We all see that Margarito never recovered from that beating and ended up retiring. There is only one caveat, only one major issue that I see that may cost Sergio the fight. It’s not Juniors size, which I think will actually be a disadvantage if he comes in heavy as Sergio is a nimble fighter, nor is it Juniors chin which is very good but if you chip away at any chin, it eventually crumbles. Nor is it the punching power of Junior as he wings wide shots and Sergio shoots short crisp shots down the pocket and will do so all night. No, it’s the utter disdain that Sergio has for Junior.
Anyone that has seen 24/7, the various press conferences or meetings these two have had in public has seen the disdain which Sergio has for Junior. He honestly doesn’t like this kid at all. I have seen fighters that didn’t like their opponents and it doesn’t hurt to build up some fire towards your opponent before a fight, but there is real animosity coming from Sergio towards Junior. He feels that this kid was handed the green belt, which I agree with. That he was protected and may have lifted to higher heights, not based on his efforts but because of his last name. He wants to show this kid a lesson and punish him. He has actually said he didn’t think he could win a decision against Chavez no matter what he did, so he will need to know him out and there lies the danger.
If Sergio actually goes into this fight trying to knock out Junior, that could be the risk that eventually cost him the fight. A fighter may say during a fight he will knock out his opponent, but trainers will tell you that when fighters start to look for the knockout instead of letting it happen, it’s a red flag. Sergio’s key to beating Junior is movement. If he goes all out in his attempt to stop him early and it doesn’t happen, he could punch himself out and then become stationary which is what Junior wants. I mean let’s be frank, Juniors game plan is to walk Sergio down. He knows damn well he cannot outbox Sergio. Also in looking for the knockout, Sergio may try to engage and wing it with Junior, which is not what Sergio should be doing.
If Sergio approaches this fight as he usually does, nimble footwork, hitting at angles and spinning Junior who has pretty lousy footwork, I see a late round stoppage around round 10 and a masterful boxing exhibition by Sergio.