Canelo vs. Munguia: Tonight’s Preview And Prediction

By Chris Carlson - 05/04/2024 - Comments

Cinco de Mayo weekend is upon us and that can only mean one thing, Canelo Alvarez is back in the ring. This time he faces off versus a younger Mexican foe by the name of Jaime Munguia.

Does this young gun have what it takes to knock off the king? Or will Canelo reign supreme as the face in the sport of boxing? This Premier Boxing Champions event will be live streaming on Prime PPV along with a host of other platforms available for purchase.

Just short of two weeks ago, the boxing world witnessed a major upset at the hands of Ryan Garcia. Given the recent news about a failed drug test that victory is in question. The betting sites have Jaime as an underdog sitting anywhere from + 350 to +410.

This boxing podcaster believes those are fair odds and it feels the boxing public is calling for a sizable upset for specific reasons. The main reason is the fact that Canelo is not fighting David Benavidez on May 4th.

Don’t get me wrong I do think Munguia is a solid boxer who will test Alvarez to an extent anyways. For a long period of time Jaime’s career seemed stuck in neutral while facing mediocre opposition, especially after his close points win over Dennis Hogan in 2019.

That was the case up until Jaime took on an aged but still legit test in Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Sergiy has a bunch of competitive losses and one could debate the outcome versus Gennadiy Golovkin.

To his credit, Munguia did come through in the clutch, scoring a 12th-round knockdown via body shot to seal the deal. And to be fair it’s not like Canelo hasn’t got the benefit of the doubt in close decisions.

Early this year Jaime put on a display by dismantling John Ryder, stopping him in the 9th round. That is the other reason so many media members and tuned-in boxing fans give Jaime such a good shot at beating Canelo. The problem with that theory is although Canelo couldn’t end the fight early versus Ryder he still beat the dog shit out of him.

At some point, a fighter will show his or her age enough, so it severely affects the way they fight. Yes, Canelo is no longer at his peak, which is no real shocker considering what age he was turning pro. It’s also no secret that Canelo likes to fight at a slower pace and will either take rounds off and/or look a bit tired until he finds a second wind. And that’s where Jaime, being the younger, hungry boxer, needs to pounce.

It doesn’t mean Munguia should approach this matchup like the Tasmanian devil and completely forget to respect his elders. It does mean he will have to show that chin of his is sturdy and his punch rate remains fairly high. Cutting the distance with a jab will be a must. One way or another, Munguia will have to force his way inside, making this a rough-and-tumble affair.

Hurting Canelo is difficult to do but will be mandatory to get a decision, which brings us to the next point. Trying to beat Canelo on the judge’s scorecards is tough task. Even Floyd Mayweather saw a draw scorecard and he handled Alvarez back in 2013. Scoring a knockdown is nearly impossible. One thing that stands out in fights one and two against Golovkin was the lack of body punching coming from GGG.

Will Munguia be able to target Canelo’s body? If so he could open up holes in Canelo’s defense up top and then land the type of punches that will get the judges attention.

The answer is likely no, and that comes down to Canelo’s counter-punching and head movement. We know Canelo is at a higher level of skill-wise and the big fight night experience gap between him and Jaime in that category. If Munguia is too aggressive Canelo will make him pay. If Munguia only tries to land bombs to the head and fights in the middle of the ring, Canelo will win the majority of rounds.

Back to the jab and bodywork being important to some extent so Jaime can actually apply smarter pressure. If he can do that he will put Canelo either on the ropes or force Alvarez into lateral movement. By the way, Canelo can adjust to fighting and winning in those scenarios, but at least it will be the best path to victory for the young lion. Another key point is both fighters have plenty of pop when it comes to power punching at 168.

This fight will have moments within the rounds and for full rounds that we see great work by Jaime Munguia. In the end though look for Canelo to find his timing and separate from Munguia for a clean yet entertaining bout.

A TKO is on the table if Canelo is able to land flush repeatedly in the early rounds. If that’s the case there is a chance at a stoppage from the punishment angle. However, this boxing junkie doesn’t believe Canelo will go for the kill and really put his punches together in bunches unless Jaime is in real trouble.

My Official Prediction is Canelo Alvarez by Unanimous Decision.


Side Note: Don’t forget to set your alarms for the return of Naoya Inoue and the deep card live from Japan on ESPN+ Monday morning.

Written by Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio