Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Prediction: Canelo’s Return Home Long Overdue

05/05/2023 - By Chris Carlson - Comments

Canelo Alvarez returns to his homeland this weekend versus John Ryder in a stadium packed with 50,000 fans. Long overdue, Alvarez hasn’t fought in Mexico since November 26th, 2011, against Kermit Cintron. Alvarez was last seen in the ring back in September when he unanimously defeated Gennadiy Golovkin in their third installment of the series. Prior to that win, Canelo suffered his first official loss dating back to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, at the hands of Dmitry Bivol. On paper, it seems John Ryder is a placeholder opponent for Canelo, who plans to rematch Bivol later this year.

Many tuned-in boxing fans don’t really consider John Ryder a threat but instead, point to David Benavidez as Alvarez’s biggest challenge at the super middleweight division. Of course, we would have to move Bivol to the top of the list if, in fact, the rematch is fought between Canelo and Dmitry in the 168-pound division. Ryder’s best wins of his career have come in his last two outings. Zach Parker was an undefeated boxer at 22-0 with a weak resume. Parker submitted in the fourth round due to an injured right hand.

Far and away, the best victory for Ryder came over Daniel Jacobs. It was a stalemate type of affair, with neither guy doing a bunch to secure a clear win. If you thought Jacobs won, cool, but both men didn’t look all that good. To be fair, Danny appears to be past his prime or, at the very least, unmotivated. One could argue John’s best performance came in a controversial loss to Callum Smith. Ryder was able to get his work done on the inside, pushing Callum back to the ropes throughout. Ryder also fared well in controlling the distance in the center of the ring. Can he duplicate what he did back in 2019 is the real question?

Another talking point around boxing circles is how Canelo Alvarez has possibly lost a step and might be on the downslide as far as being a fighter in their prime. Beyond a difficult style matchup, I don’t look that deep into the reasons why Dmitry Bivol won so one-sided. Clearly, Canelo Alvarez didn’t perform up to his standard in the trilogy bout with Gennadiy Golovkin. It was, however, the cleanest win for either combatant out of their three meetings. What also needs to be added into the equation, Golovkin had been inactive in recent years, along with not looking all the good.

The big problem is John Ryder’s best path to becoming victorious plays right into Canelo’s counterpunching ways. Yes, Ryder might have some success in the early rounds if he can work his way inside behind a jab and land some quality punches. To be honest, it’s just a matter of time until Canelo begins to time Ryder and really finds his rhythm. Not saying this will be a for sure knockout early or mid-rounds. Actually, this boxing podcaster believes it will go over the 8.5 rounds on

Whether it comes via 9-3/10-2 decision or ends in a late-round stoppage, Canelo Alvarez is too skilled and possesses the power to force Ryder into making adjustments he’s not capable of. No shot at Ryder, who’s faced some good boxers but non on the level of Canelo Alvarez’s prime or no prime. The main question will be after Canelo gets his hand raised. Who will be next?

My Official Prediction is Canelo Alvarez by Late Stoppage or UD.

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Side Note: By far, the best fight on the card per competitiveness is Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela vs. Steve Spark. Also, Oleksandr Gvozdyk appears in his 2nd bout since returning to the ring versus Ricards Bolotniks.

Written by Chris Carlson, Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio