By Kevin L. Johnston: Kaizer Mabuza is as high as a 2 to 1 underdog heading into his bout with Zab Judah this Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. For you degenerates stateside, Mabuza is between +160 and +200 at most books; for you punters across the pond, Mabuza is in the 2.60 to 3.00 range. If your book offers specific outcome prop betting on non-mega fights, you might also be able to find Mabuza to win by KO/TKO/DQ at around 4 ½ to 1. In my opinion there is enormous value in backing Mabuza this weekend.
Simply put, Mabuza looks huge for a light welterweight. In his fight with Kendall Holt, all I kept thinking was, “How does this beast of a man possibly make 140 pounds?” Holt is considered a fairly big puncher in the light welterweight division, but Mabuza waltzed through Holt’s entire repertoire, stalking Holt around the ring while unleashing his own arsenal of power shots to the body mixed in with some quality chin music. By the end of the 6th round, Holt’s trainer had seen enough and wanted to stop the fight. Holt didn’t exactly vehemently disagree.
Zab Judah will face similar obstacles on Saturday night in Newark. In what will be just his 2nd fight at 140 pounds since opting to return to the light welterweight division, Zab is looking to prove that his name still belongs among boxing’s elite. In truth, it probably no longer does. Time and time again Judah has been close to the mountain top only to collapse before the summit. The blueprint is always the same: a quick start followed by a monumental fade. His minuteman stamina is perhaps only comparable to that of Kenny Powers in April’s bedroom.
Judah’s history of starting fast and finishing slow is so well-documented that Judah brought the legendary Pernell Whitaker into his corner recently to help make him a more defensive-minded and energy-conserving fighter. It might make a subtle difference, but Judah is already 33 with quite a bit of wear and tear on his tires. In his last fight against Lucas Martin Matthysse, Judah once again looked strong early on only to get barraged by Matthysse later on, even touching the canvas in the 10th round. Zab won a controversial split decision that many ringside observers felt was unjust.
The Judah-Matthysse fight took place at the Prudential Center as well, which is why taking Mabuza to win by stoppage at a better price is the way to go. Nearly all the remotely close rounds will probably go to Zab, who once again finds himself fighting in the comforts of his own backyard. Since a robbery is a distinct possibility, try to take Mabuza to win by KO/TKO/DQ at around 4 ½ to 1 if it’s available; however, I also like just taking Mabuza to win at around 2 to 1 odds if that’s your only option.
Mabuza will weather the storm early on by showing a nice chin and continuing to apply pressure forward. The best way to slow a fighter down is by going to the body early and often. Since Judah already has stamina issues, the solid body punching from Mabuza will become the story of the fight. Zab may even gas out earlier than he normally does because Mabuza is so physically imposing. Zab will be exhausted after the first several rounds, so look for Mabuza to bang him out of there in the mid to late rounds. Find the best price you can for Mabuza to win by stoppage or simply just Mabuza to win, and the only downside is that you might have to buy your bookie lunch next week when you meet to settle up.
(Kevin L. Johnston is a freelance writer from Indianapolis who contributes material for rumorsandrants.com and ESB. You can follow him on Twitter @WiseGuyAction or reach him via e-mail at konundrum8@hotmail.com)