I remember well the fight between Danny Jacobs and Golovkin in 2017. When I say well, what I mean is that the sensations are still vivid; Just don’t ask me though to recall the detailed dynamics of the fight. There was the knockdown in the fourth round of course, and the rest of the fight thereafter was closely contested and tense. It was exciting and there was great suspense before the decision was announced at the end. That’s all I can say with any confidence though. If I were to essay more than that, we’d be entering the realm of bluff and/or self-deception. I’ll avoid doing that on this occasion.
It’s sometimes like that with boxing; you can watch a match you really enjoy and yet have a very tenuous recollection of what actually happened afterwards. Don’t worry, this is not the beginning of a cod-philosophical flight of fancy. There is no mystery to this phenomenon. The reason for it is quite prosaic. A night of boxing is different from a football match, or any other non-combat sport. It is different because in the course of that evening, you will be taking in more than one match. It is quite rare for the undercard to match or surpass the main event. The mediocre preludes serve as an opportunity to visit the bar. By the time the main event starts, typically around 10.30, the spectator is steeped to the lips in booze.
I had not quite reached that point on this occasion, but I was, let’s say, not strictly within the driving limit. It was my first time in New York and I had been to the Met Museum the previous day. The next day was therefore devoted to more philistine pursuits. Drinking commenced at lunch time somewhere near Greenwich Village and then after various meanderings my friend and I ended up in Hooters and after that Jimmy’s bar. I could make this the subject of a lengthy and worthy digression, but let’s leave that for another time.
So, I was in good cheer before the main event. This was owing to the craft beer coursing through my veins, but also the presence of a large contingent of attractive Kazakh females that had turned up to support GGG. I struck up conversation with Willie Munroe, the former GGG opponent and asked him for his prediction. His reply was laconic and non-committal but I was grateful for not having been shunned like a leper. I returned to my seat ready for the fight. The passage of time and the haze of Wild Turkey prevent me from offering a detailed account and I have not supplemented my memory by re-watching the fight on Youtube.
What I do remember is that the fight didn’t ignite. It was interesting but anticlimactic. There were no exchanges, and few combinations were thrown by either man. I don’t think that either Jacobs or Golovkin landed a proper clean punch on the chin at any point. What was happening was that Golovkin was shepherding Jacobs into the corners and along the ropes, hitting him regularly with his jab. Jacobs would occasionally pepper Golovkin with a combination but didn’t really mount a sustained attack. Nor did Golovkin mount further attacks off his jab. It was a classic example of two evenly matched competitors wary of each other’s strengths.
So what about Canelo and Jacobs, you say? Isn’t this meant to be about them? Yes, you’re absolutely right, it is. And to cut a long story short, my money is on Canelo. I’m not basing this on intricate analysis or on the fact that Canelo is a favourite with the judges in Vegas (though this is of course an important point to bear in mind when betting!). Simply put, I think it is because Jacobs is a bit too easy to hit and gets wild up close. He will, I think, be open to the counter. He thinks that having passed the litmus test with Golovkin, his chin is certified pure iron. The thing is though that he didn’t take a proper clean power punch from Golovkin in their fight. Golovkin, as against Canelo, was reserved in his output and wasn’t committing fully to his punches, because he was mindful of Jacobs’ power. His punches were not full-blooded. A clean counter from Canelo, or a well-placed body shot will definitely have an impact on Jacobs.
I rate Jacobs highly and he has some obvious physical advantages in this fight. I was surprised his reach wasn’t that much more than Canelo’s, despite the height difference. But in any case, he is longer and heavier than Saul. He also has better footwork. Canelo won’t be able to exert the same pressure that Golovkin did, so Jacobs is less likely to find himself cornered or on the ropes. If Jacobs were the type of fighter that could fight a disciplined fight from the outside, keep a regular jab going and dart in and out, making Canelo hit air, as was the case with Mayweather, then I’d confidently predict his victory. But he doesn’t seem that sort of fighter. Not from what I’ve seen of him. I don’t think he can pitch a shut out. Given the magnitude of the occasion perhaps he will be more strategic and cautious, but it would be contrary to usual form. He’s given intimations of that sort of approach, but I’m not convinced he can execute it. Not without some critical lapses at any rate.
Canelo by points or stoppage. There you are: a clear prediction, with equivocation kept to a minimum. Willie Monroe take note.
