Why Josh Kelly Enters the Murtazaliev Fight as the Outsider

Josh Kelly thinks he’s being overlooked. Honestly? Fans have plenty of reasons to feel that way.

Since David Avanesyan stopped him back in 2021, Kelly hasn’t taken down a single world-class opponent. That loss didn’t just stall his welterweight run. What it did was put his entire reputation on ice, and that’s why everything he’s done since feels like he’s just treading water. He’s stayed busy, sure, but staying active without stepping up the competition doesn’t change anyone’s mind.

That’s exactly the reason fans view him as the underdog against Bakhram Murtazaliev.

Murtazaliev’s reputation comes from his three-round stoppage of Tim Tszyu in 2024. He broke him down, dropped him over and over, and ended things before the fight even got warm. Moments like that stick in people’s minds. Fighters are judged by what they do under the big lights, not by what they say in a presser.

Kelly claims the talk around Murtazaliev is too one dimensional, all about power and pressure. He thinks there’s room for speed, timing, and variation over twelve rounds. That’s a nice theory, but it would carry a lot more weight if Kelly had tested it against someone who actually hits back at an elite level.

Since that 2021 defeat, Kelly has put together seven straight wins at junior middleweight. It’s been a steady rebuild with no disasters, but also no “wow” moments that force us to see him differently. He hasn’t beaten a real puncher or a contender that shifts the narrative. He’s stable, but he hasn’t soared.

Murtazaliev has been out of the ring for 15 months, which is really the only reason people are debating if this is competitive. Long layoffs can definitely rust a fighter’s timing, but sometimes fans lean on that “layoff” excuse just because they’re looking for a path to victory that isn’t actually there.

Because Kelly is the IBF mandatory, this fight is going down whether people believe in him or not. That status explains the chance he’s getting, but it doesn’t close the confidence divide. Fans aren’t being mean by counting him out; they’re just looking at a resume that hasn’t earned their trust yet.

Kelly says this fight will show everyone where he really stands. That’s fair. But when you’re at the top, it isn’t the fans’ job to imagine a miracle. It’s the challenger’s job to go out there and take it. Until Kelly does that, being the underdog isn’t a sign of disrespect. It’s just the logical reality.

You can catch the fight streaming on DAZN.