By Vivek Wallace: Over the past five weeks this EastSideBoxing official countdown to Pacquaio/Mosley has taken some awfully intriguing twist and turns. Last week we took a peek at an “in-depth tale of the tape”, prior to that we looked at the trainers (“Eying the 8-ball, Corner Pocket”), before that we explained “Why Everyone Is All Wrong About Shane’s Chances”, and the list goes on. This week, we go from the here and now, to the now and later.
So much energy in the media has focused on what happens when these two men finally enter the ring that everyone seems to forget, like everything else in life, this moment too shall pass. When it does……where do these respective men go from there? Today, we hone in on this very subject as we look ahead……not to the night of May 7th, in the Las Vegas based MGM Grand…..but to the morning of May 8th………when the bleachers are empty, the headlines have gone to print, and the collective focus and attention of the sport shifts to the road that lies ahead:
PACQUIAO VICTORY VIA EARLY KO:
For Shane Mosley, this would signal the end. There would be no reason to stick around, and no similar paydays remotely close to consider. Such an ending could be the absolute worst thing to happen to Mosley, and in some respects, he could find himself in a very similar position to former business partner, Oscar De La Hoya, who lost practically every mega fight he encountered against a future hall-of-famer in his prime.
Although close, Mosley’s resume has seen a few grand moments, most notably against Antonio Margarito back on January 24th, 2009; but beyond that night, victories on the grandstage have been few, far, and in between. This truth, paralleled with the steroid revelations could leave several questions around what once appeared to be a very stellar career.
For Pacquiao, this would simply be the latest rise to new heights in a career that often appears to have no true ceiling. An old adage states that “the sky is the limit”, but an early stoppage of Mosley, even at age 40 would be more than enough to silence even his sharpest critics, and strengthen his position as P4P king in the sport today.
With a resume as strong as the one Pacquiao boast, as stated several times in the past, there’s simply one name left in the sport to face. Sadly enough for those of us who care, a stoppage here against Mosley, and he will be ordained the greatest with or without that fight. Why risk such a reward? An early stoppage of Mosley and the Mayweather fight surely never happens.
MOSLEY VICTORY VIA EARLY KO:
For Shane Mosley, this would be a rebirth of epic proportions! So far this year we’ve seen many fighters get the nod against men that they weren’t expected to; but in Manny Pacquiao, you have a man who has been exempt on every level imaginable! For Mosley to clip his wings and bring him down to earth after such a heightened rockstar type ride, this would be a feat that few hold the articulation necessary to even properly communicate!
A close victory would result in a rematch, but after hearing about how this is Pacquiao’s “best camp ever”, if he were to be stopped against Mosley, the only rematch fight fans would see would be a renewed attempt at Mayweather!
For Manny Pacquiao, this would be a breaking point that few saw coming. True enough, the odds are falling more and more by the day, the closer we get to fight night; but logically, no one expects Mosley to pull this feat off! An early KO loss for Manny Pacquiao would be a setback that would be very difficult to conquer. It would arguably mean the end of his run in the welterweight division. When you look below the welterweight division you have no legendary names on the dockett and the one that comes closest (Marquez) could be such a dangerous fight that it would almost be senseless to consider coming off a humbling loss.
Few seem to think so, but an early KO stoppage for Pacquiao could mean retirement, as there would be nothing left to prove, and the Mayweather fight would have no lust remaining. Aside from this truth, an early KO loss for Pacquiao would open a firestorm of deeper speculation into the very infamous randomized blood testing issue, as the entire focus of the sport would hone in on Team Pacquiao to search for a possible shift in their position.
Would their be an inclination to face Mosley again with test involved? With no effective rematch clause in effect, would a Mosley victory give him the negotiating power to decline their request as they did Mayweather’s if asked in a potential rematch? Could their stiff position to refuse randomized blood testing haunt them to the point where neither of the best two options available (Mayweather and Mosley) feel compelled to comply with their negotiation request as it relates to potential cut-off dates for testing, etc? No one knows how this would play out, but an early loss at the hands of a man who hasn’t looked too great lately and hasn’t won a fight in two years would surely open this can of worms! Looks like Mosley’s best shot at victory could be Pacquiao’s worst nightmare in defeat!
PACQUIAO VICTORY VIA CLOSE DECISION:
For Shane Mosley, this would be a best case scenario, as short of him actually pulling it off, this is the ONLY scenario that would allow him to remain in the sport without deep criticism. Considering his determination and granite chin, this is a very possible outcome. A hard fought effort ending in a close decision loss could also possibly allow Mosley to “double the pleasure”, as a rematch would not be entirely off the table if the fight does good numbers and the fans feel it’s in demand!
Considering Mosley’s hunger coming into this fight and the fact that he knows a loss or poor performance would mean ‘curtains’, I think this could be our likely result. For the sake of Mosley’s slowly fading career, he’d better hope so!
For Manny Pacquiao, this is a win-lose-win situation, as even in victory, a close fight against a man who was shut out by the man most want to see Pacquiao face (Mayweather) would do very little for negotiations of such a fight if it ever crossed the table again. The only wildcard in the equation is a closely contested fight with solid numbers at the box office and the PPV circuit. Regardless, a win is a win is a win, and a victory for Pacquiao in any fashion keeps the wheels of progress churning forward! A close decision won’t stop the P-Train…….ALL ABOARD!!!!!!!
MOSLEY VICTORY VIA CLOSE DECISION:
For Pacquiao, this is an issue not even worth discussing! Calling an ace an ace and a spade a spade, there is no scenario I foresee that would allow Mosley to walk away on the night of May 7th with a decision – close or wide – against Manny Pacquiao. PERIOD! Critics will say my position here is polluted, or born from ignorance, but keeping it real for those who refuse to play fake, America is the only place I can remember where the homeland fighter can actually lose a closely contested bout on his own soil (see Hopkins/Calzaghe) – which is actually a good thing from a purity standpoint!
They call America “the land of the free, and home of the brave”! I would have to agree when put in boxing context, as without question, there will be no price to pay for the judges involved because everyone loves Pacquiao; and this would be a brave move that is highly favored and carefully executed by the powers-that-be!
For Mosley, a close decision victory could be precisely what the doctor ordered! With there being no official rematch clause in existence for this fight, he would be free to survey all offers. He could entertain the numbers associated with another Mayweather rematch, or he could be a good sportsman and let Pacquiao get another crack at him! As previously noted, I doubt very seriously that this equation comes to fruition, but if it does somehow, what lies ahead beyond this point would surely be great for the sport, as it would undoubtedly be another mega fight!
A DRAW – NEITHER MAN EARNING THE VICTORY:
Such an ending could only produce one result: REMATCH! I can’t see any possible scenario where these men would refuse to do a rematch considering the purses involved, as well as the fact that few other options would allow them to be reproduced.
END ANALYSIS:
When the smoke clears and the dust settles, both men know full well coming into this fight that there’s a ton of upside for the winner, and few options remaining for the loser if that loss comes in devastating fashion. For one man, (Mosley), a loss seems virtually inevitable; yet a victory restores his name, legacy, and earning power in a sport that has somewhat turned it’s back to him in some respects. For the other, (Pacquiao), a victory seems assured, but a loss places him in unfamiliar territory and would lead skeptics to question why even stick around, as all once better options would no longer seem attractive. It’s any ones guess how this will all end up…..but hey…..that’s why we’ll all be tuned in, roughly 8 days away!
(Vivek Wallace can be reached at vivexemail@yahoo.com, 954-292-7346, Youtube (VIVEK1251), Twitter (VIVEKWALLACE747), Skype (VITO-BOXING), and Facebook).