Keith Thurman Says Errol Spence Jr.’s Layoff Is Biggest Question Against Tim Tszyu


Tim Compton - 06/01/2026 - Comments

The former champion believes Spence’s three-year absence outweighs every other factor in the July 25 showdown

Keith Thurman believes Errol Spence Jr.’s three-year absence from the ring is the biggest unknown heading into his July 25 fight with Tim Tszyu. Thurman says Spence’s pedigree keeps the matchup close, but questions about ring rust make the returning former champion difficult to evaluate.

Spence returns for the first time since his ninth-round stoppage loss to Terence Crawford in July 2023. The former unified welterweight champion will move up to a 158-pound catchweight to face Tszyu in Australia, with both fighters attempting to rebuild after recent setbacks.

Thurman sees clear strengths on both sides, but says Spence’s inactivity makes the fight difficult to predict.

“A lot of people see it as a 50/50 [fight]. Spence has [had] too big of a layoff – that’s the biggest question mark.

“When your layoff is long [and] no one’s seen you, they don’t know what version of you they’re gonna get.

“They’re going to analyse you off of your last performance – [and Spence’s] last performance was not that good.”

Thurman told MillCity Boxing.

Tszyu enters the fight after a difficult stretch that included losses to Sebastian Fundora and Bakhram Murtazaliev. Despite those defeats, Thurman believes the Australian has one important advantage over Spence.

“I think Tim Tszyu has the advantage of activity and then Spence has the advantage of pedigree.

“He’s been at another level; he’s achieved more [than Tszyu].

“But it’s a solid 50/50 [fight], because they both have some questions that need answers.”

Thurman said.

The matchup has become one of the more difficult fights to call on the July 25 schedule. Tszyu has been active despite his recent losses, while Spence remains one of the most accomplished fighters of his generation but has not competed in three years.

Thurman’s view is simple. Activity favors Tszyu. Experience and accomplishments favor Spence. Nobody knows whether the version of Spence returning in Australia will resemble the champion who unified the welterweight division or the fighter who was dominated by Crawford in his last appearance.

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Last Updated on 2026/06/03 at 1:02 AM