Weekend Predictions: Harrison v Medina, Judah-Corley, Mayorga-Forrest

Photo by Roger Williams/courtesy of CF Images
Ricardo "El Matador" Mayorga (left) works the mitts with trainer Hector Perez Monday at The Orleans. In a rematch of perhaps the year's biggest upset, Mayorga will defend his WBC/WBA welterweight titles against former WBC 147-pound champion Vernon "The Viper" Forrest in one of three world title fights on Saturday, July 12, at The Orleans.

By James McDonnell

Scott Harrison v Manuel Medina.
12 Rounds Featherweight WBO title.

An important fight this for new Scottish prospect Scott Harrison as he takes on experienced campaigner and two time former champion Manuel Medina. They are two fighters with contrasting styles, and at contrasting stages in their careers.

Harrison is the young lion, tough, strong and going places, but as yet unproven at the top level. Medina, the wizened old battle-scarred lion, he's seen it all in his long career, he's been almost right to the top, and is on the decline, but still dangerous to less experienced fighters.

It's funny, but this step up for Scott Harrison reminds me of a certain Naseem Hamed who 8 years ago took a similar step up in class to win his WBO title, against another veteran, Steve Robinson.

Many on that night thought that Robinson would be too experienced and too strong for the cocky youngster Hamed, but on the night youth and vigour overcame age experience.

Of course Medina also presented Hamed with one of his stiffer tests as champion, in a fight which owed as much to the street as the boxing ring, finally succumbing to the heavy hitting Hamed in the 11th round, after a desperate struggle.

Although only 32, these days not necessarily that old for a fighter, even in the lower weight divisions, that only tells half the story. Incredibly, Medina had his first professional fight at the age of 14, taking on Daniel Flores in Mexicali, Mexico.

Medina is a veteran with more years on the clock than his age would suggest, and has been involved in some brutal fights among his impressively large 61-13 (28) resume. He's always been beatable, he's never been considered the top man in the featherweight division at any point, though near enough to
the top to give anyone who considered themselves the best a thoroughly unpleasant 12 rounds.

In reality, Medina has been on the slide since he lost to Hamed, he was stiffed by Derrick gainer a couple of fights later, and lost a lop-sided decision to Ingle soon after, being dropped 3 times in the process. However, he is a game warrior, and a genuine tough guy, as you would expect of a man who turned professional as a boy. Medina won't be turning up to collect a paycheque I don't think, and he will try every trick, fair and foul, in his formidable shaman's bag to turn the bout.

Medina's last decent performance against a world class operator, was against another veteran, fighting way above his best fighting weight, Johnny Tapia. It was a fight he should have been awarded the decision for. In a snoozesome bout he out-hustled and outworked Tapia for the full 12 rounds, throwing a record 1466 light but scoring punches to boot. To put this performance into perspective, Tapia wasn't really much more than a shadow of the fighter he was in his heyday, and was totally ineffective that night. Medina is on borrowed time, and the end looks nigh for him, but is Harrison the man to do a job on him?

Harrison really is a bull of a man, and a real bully at featherweight, with a high punch output. Medina needs to try and keep the stocky Harrison off him, and he does have a good jab when he uses it correctly. He kept Tapia at bay with it for the whole fight, but Harrison will be able to close the gap a lot more effectively than the leaden-footed Tapia who was easily kept of balance by the lightest of taps from Medina. Harrison is unlikely to allow a shoeshine jab to deter him, and is excellent at cutting off the ring, so Medina will need to plant his feet a little to keep him off, a risky proposition against a much stronger opponent.

Harrison has nothing like the wealth of big fight experience that Medina has, he's a prospect at this stage, and has a lot to prove still, but he seems to be a natural fighter, with a strong instinctive approach to the business. He's not a flashy fighter, and he's not especially gifted in any particular department, but he's got a fantastic work ethic, is in great shape, seems thus far to have a solid chin, is technically correct and compact, and also young and exceptionally strong.

Medina's probably forgotten more tricks than Harrison will ever know, but I think the signs are there that he's ready for the taking. The most indicative performance is the stoppage loss recently to Juan Marquez, who dished out a brutal beating to the brave but overwhelmed Medina inside of 7 rounds, something very nobody could do to Medina in his heyday.

Harrison is not a seasoned pro, but neither was Marquez, and all of Medina's big fight experience could not extricate him from that situation.

My feeling is that Medina simply will not have the stamina to keep up with the kind of relentless pressure that Harrison will put him under. Whilst Harrison is not a puncher in the truest sense of the word, his ferocious strength has a way of grinding down an opponent. Medina is a good defensive fighter, and is very good at surviving, but as for actually winning the fight, it's hard to see how the light-hitting Medina can do that.

Wayne McCullough, a fighter of comparable stature and experience to Medina, and a similarly light hitter, simply couldn't live with the work rate of Harrison, and was perhaps unwisely allowed to absorb a terrific amount of punishment from the much stronger Harrison. McCulloch is one of boxing's iron-men, having taken Daniel Zarragoza, Erik Morales, and Naseem Hamed the distance previously, but he came as close to getting stopped as he ever has against the rugged Scotsman.

Harrison's strength will be the main factor here, he is probably the strongest featherweight in the world right now, and looks more like a lightweight come fightnight, Medina is a much more slight fighter, and lacks the physical strength to put Harrison on the back foot.

Only Medina's savvy makes me think the fight will go the distance, and I'll be surprised if Medina pulls off an upset here. I'm going to stick my neck on the line and go for Harrison by a late round TKO, as the referee rescues a bleeding and battered Medina from Harrison's pulverising shots.

Harrison WTKO9

Zab Judah Vs DeMarcus Chop-Chop Corley.
12 Rounds WBO title fight.

This one really is a crunch fight, especially for Judah, who is seeking to redeem himself after getting blitzed during, and disgracing himself after, his failed unification battle with current king of the division, Kostya Tszyu.

Facing him is the WBO champion, DeMarcus Corley, a lightly regarded champion holding only a peripheral belt.

Both men are undoubtedly seeking a crack at Kostya Tszyu, or the titles he may soon vacate, or lose to Shamba Mitchell. For Judah, he needs to prove that he isn't a chinless wonder and wants desperately to avenge the sole loss on his record against Tszyu, and Corley is the next obstacle in his
path back to the top.

Judah is definetly the classier operator of the two, but he's a fighter tarnished by the crushing 2nd round defeat handed to him by Tszyu. Prior to that, Judah was being hailed in the same way that Floyd Mayweather continues to be. He was a fighter with flair defensively, who could box, and could also bang when needed. His early fights saw him blaze a trail through the division, before crashing to a halt against the far more experienced Tszyu.

In that fight, Judah started with great success. He skittered around the ring like a water-beetle, popping Tszyu seemingly at will with dazzling jabs, uppercuts and hooks, which landed with thudding authority.

A question mark remains whether or not Judah's flashy skills are more surface gloss than substance. Tszyu was able to find chinks in his shell pretty quickly, and once he did, he ended proceedings with a single shot, which totally took away Judah's legs, as he danced the funky chicken in front of millions of boxing fans. It was a crushing and humiliating loss, and Judah erupted with anger at the totally fair stoppage, throwing his toys (along with the corner stool, turnbuckles, ringside seats, and anything else to hand) at the referee Jay Nady.

Nobody knows now whether Jab is china-chopped now or not, and against Corley, we may not find out, but it makes this fight more interesting than it would appear on paper. The form book would suggest that this fight is a pretty sure thing for the more experienced and more skillful Judah, but if Corley decides to turn it into a brawl and shakes Judah up, anything could happen.

For Corley, Judah would be a major scalp at this stage in his career, and would be by far the biggest name on his resume to date. If DeMarcus can lodge an impressive victory over Judah, the division will have to give him some credit, even as a peripheral champion.

It's not impossible, but I think it relies more on what Judah may or may not lack, than what Corley posssesses. Nobody seems all that impressed with Corley so far, and in his last defence against Randall Bailey, a fringe contender, he looked nothing so much as ordinary.

With Kostya Tszyu already looking onward and upward to the welterweights sometime soon, the division could soon be wide open, and if Kostya sticks around, then Corley would want to be in the mix for the titles he leaves behind.

I expect Judah to start fast, and start throwing the jab with authority. He will probably be a little more cautious than he was against Tszyu, if he's learnt the painful lessons of leaving his chin exposed early on.

Of course, If Judah turns out to be as delicate as his loss to Tszyu suggested, then Corley may be able to capitalise on it. If that is the case, and Judah gets stopped, I think that will be the end of his title aspirations, and will signal the demise of his career. Corley isn't a big puncher, and Judah was able to cruise past Ward even as a much less experienced fighter, so the odds are not in Corley's favour.

Judah has the power and more importantly the accuracy to hurt anyone in the division, and he may even go for the big KO, these kind of fights have a habit of producing fireworks, when two men have so much on the line.

Judging this merely on who is the classier operator, and the fighter with the biggest toolbox at his disposal, you have to go with Judah, and I will do so. I think Judah is going to want to turn in a good performance to shut his numerous critics up, at least for the time being.

Judah will start brightly, dictating the pace, and working behind his excellent jab, and once he finds range, this will turn into a one-sided affair, with Corley occasionally charging into range and unloading a salvo or two, but getting caught on the way in.

I see Judah boxing behind his southpaw jab, finding his range, and gradually picking up the pace, unloading his powerful hooks and uppercuts. Unless Corley produces something dramatic, I see him either losing a one-sided decision, or getting stopped late. It's 2 years since Judah stopped anyone, but I think this fight may bring out the tiger in him.

Ricardo Mayorga v Vernon Forrest.
12 Rounds Welterweight, WBA/WBC title fight.

If anything I was more shocked that Mayorga beat Forrest, than Forrest beating Mosley. Mosley was in against a much bigger opponent, a natural welerweight with good boxing skills and power in his long right hand. Just as the powerful and durable Duran was undone by Hearns, so Mosley, the naturally smaller man was overcome by the physicality and punch power of the naturally bigger man in Forrest.

I had thought of Mayorga as one of boxing's colour-men, a bold, flamboyant fighter, low on finesse, but high on drive and desire. Although he devastated Andrew six-'heads' Lewis, making him look more like 'six-legs', this didn't seem relevant against the much more experienced and accomplished Forrest. How wrong can you be? But at least I wasn't alone in my presumptions.

Whether Forrest took him lightly or not appears to be the most applicable question in this case, or to put it another way, was the loss to Mayorga really indicative of the two men's respective merits as fighters?

I find it hard to believe that a man who was able to stifle the best that Shane Mosley had to offer, cannot find a way to beat the slower and less technically accomplished Mayorga. This may be the case however, and maybe Mayorga's swarming style is one that Forrest, and maybe the rest of the division will find too hot to handle. Sometimes seemingly crude fighters like Mayorga have a way of making their more slick counterparts unravel at the seams. Jeff Fenech was a fighter with this ability, he even managed to ruffle Azumah Nelson's feathers in their first fight, and he's now a hall-of-famer as a result of a mauling suffocating style that was ugly to watch, but big on results.

That's not to say Mayorga is quite in Fenech's league, certainly not yet, but this fight could go a long way to answering how effective his style is.

Mayorga only has one way to fight, he comes out a-choppin' and looks for opportunities to land his big looping shots. Against Andrew Lewis, he was getting thoroughly outworked before he found his mojo and took him to pieces, but he was never trying to win rounds. Crude as he looked though, he timed his wide arcing shots well, against an opponent who was fast moving, thought very leaky defensively.

Mayorga comes to fight, not win rounds, and he doesn't envisage his opponent hugging him when the fight ends, but being helped back on to his stool. For all of his hi-jinks; eating at weigh-ins, smoking during training etc, Mayorga is all business once he gets inside the ropes.

Forrest certainly won't be taking Mayorga lightly second time around, he won't have forgotten that if you go to sleep, you get sent to sleep, and he will have to come with his best game, and a sound gameplan, to win. Keeping his hands up will be a very important part of that, and it's not something that comes naturally to Forrest, who carries his left in the manner of a gunslinger, low-slung at the hip.

I think though, that Mayorga may just find that he's in over his head this time around, as a more focused and better-prepared Forrest fights a smarter fight. If Forrest can keep him at bay and send him onto the back foot, I can even see a stoppage win. It's the early rounds, especially the first 4 that will decide the fight for me. If Mayorga gets enough early success to hurt
Forrest, then I think he's in big trouble. Mayorga may not have the widest repertoire as a fighter, but what he does possess is a finisher's instinct, and Forrest won't get off the hook if he gets sloppy early.

If he gets past the first 4 intact, he should be able to settle into a rhythm. Forrest is a fighter who likes to fight at his own halting rhythm, against Mosley he won by imposing his stop-start pace on the fight, tying Mosley up on the inside, and hurting him on the way in, working the openings he created by forcing Mosley to try and rush in.

It's worth remembering though, that Mayorga isn't really a big combination puncher, and he is looking for single hard shots, rather than needing to land clusters, such tactics aren't as detrimental to his style. Mayorga will be happy to be in close where his looping shots will be more effective.

I think that Forrest will be able to dictate the fight this time around, and will survive a few jitters early on, beginning to punish Mayorga with his long jab and right hand from the centre of the ring in the middle rounds. I'm tempted to put my rep on the line and go for a Forrest late stoppage, but I'll stick with my instincts and say that Forrest plays it cautiously in the latter rounds, and wins a unanimous but relatively close decision.

Forrest W12